Some See Oil At $150 This Year
2008年05月07日16:41
越来越多的石油市场观察人士说，因油价不断飙升而恼火的美国选民今夏可能会面临更为糟糕的状况，因为从尼日利亚动乱到俄罗斯石油产量下滑等诸多不利因素可能会推动基准原油价格突破每桶150美元。
A growing number of oil-market watchers say voters riled by soaring fuel costs may face far worse this summer, as factors ranging from unrest in Nigeria to slumping production in Russia could shove benchmark oil prices over $150 a barrel.
周二，美国基准原油期货价格再创新高，纽约商交所原油期货结算价报121.84美元。该交易所原油期货价格今年迄今已累计上涨27%，这一价位较通胀因素调整后的1980年4月所创前历史高点超出了17%。目前油价已较上年同期上涨了96%。
U.S. benchmark crude notched another record Tuesday, settling at $121.84 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Nymex crude oil so far this year is up 27% and is now 17% above its previous inflation-adjusted record in April 1980. It is up 96% from a year ago.
眼下油价势不可挡的飙升令一些分析师发布了更为悲观的价格前景预期。曾经预见到当前涨势的高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)指出，全球市场可能最早在今年10月时就会面临油价的暴涨，届时油价将从眼下稍高于每桶120美元的水平跃升至150-200美元区间。
Oil's seemingly unstoppable surge has led some analysts to issue gloomier price outlooks. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which predicted the latest run-up, says the world may face a 'super-spike' in which crude ranges from $150 to $200 a barrel as early as October, up from just over $120 now.
达拉斯联邦储备银行(Dallas Federal Reserve Bank)能源经济学家斯蒂芬?布朗(Stephen Brown)说，这股涨势可能会把油价推至史无前例的高位，甚至超出美国内战刚结束时的油价水平。他估计，油价保持在每桶150美元的水平上可能会在第一年内吞噬美国约1.8%的经济产值，并在第二年进一步抵消1.5%。而美国第一季度折合成年率的经济增速仅为0.6%。
'That would put oil at unprecedented price levels, even going back to just after the Civil War,' said Stephen Brown, an energy economist at the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank. A sustained price of $150 a barrel, he estimates, would shave around 1.8% off U.S. economic output in the first year, and a further 1.5% in the second year. The U.S. economy in the first quarter grew at an anemic 0.6% annual pace.
在加油站，原油涨至每桶150美元时就意味着汽油价格将突破每加仑4.50美元，这将为美国的汽车生产商、航空公司以及公用事业带来更多压力。这也有可能给华盛顿政界人士的争论火上浇油。在4月份，普通汽油的均价为每加仑3.46美元。
At the pump, $150 oil translates into gasoline prices of more than $4.50 a gallon, putting further strain on U.S. auto makers, airlines and utilities. It would also stoke the political debate in Washington. Regular grade gasoline in April averaged $3.46 a gallon.
石油行业观察人士说，大多数迹象表明油价将持续上涨。尽管有人称，是投机者为对冲美元的持续走软而推动油价走高，但是自4月第一周以来，美元兑欧元已累计升值大约2%，同期油价仍然上涨了10%。
Oil watchers say most signs point toward a continued increase in prices. Despite talk that speculators have driven up crude prices as a hedge against the slumping dollar, oil has rallied 10% since the first week in April while the dollar has risen about 2% against the euro.
更加不同寻常的是，油价仍能在美国市场需求大幅下降的情况下保持上涨势头。2月份美国石油需求降至每日1,970万桶，较2007年日均需求水平低100万桶。美国政府面向消费者推出的1,520亿美元的经济增长刺激计划或会推高该国石油需求，进而可能令全球石油市场供不应求的局面雪上加霜。
Even more unusual is that oil has maintained its upward momentum in the face of sharply diminished U.S. demand, which fell in February to 19.7 million barrels a day. That was down a million barrels a day from the 2007 average. An increase in U.S. demand, perhaps driven by the $152 billion in government stimulus payments to consumers, could crimp an already tight international oil market.
分析人士称，能够压低油价的主要因素有全球石油需求骤减，或者国际投资者从大宗商品市场突然撤离等。
The main factors that could send prices down, analysts say, would be a sharp downturn in global oil demand or some sudden flight from commodities among international investors.
Cambridge Energy Research Associates的董事长丹尼尔?尤金(Daniel Yergin)说，现在不是一只妖怪被放出了瓶子，而是100只妖怪被放了出来。尤金一贯以油价下跌的乐观预期而闻名，如今他的公司表示，油价在年内可能会上涨至每桶150美元。
'It's not that the genie is out of the bottle -- it's that 100 genies are out of the bottle,' said Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates. Normally known for optimistic forecasts of lowering oil prices, Mr. Yergin's firm now says the price could rise to $150 a barrel this year.
尤金说，全球石油闲置产能不断降低仍是油价高企的最主要原因之一。根据大多数分析师的预测，眼下全球的原油安全缓冲──即在危急关头可以迅速被开采出来的原油量──大约是每日200万桶。这仅仅是全球日需求量的2.3%，而且几乎所有缓冲储备都集中在一个国家──沙特阿拉伯，这使得全世界石油市场很容易受到政治或其他问题的冲击。
The world's diminished spare production capacity remains the strongest single catalyst for high prices, Mr. Yergin says. The world's safety cushion -- the amount of readily available oil that could be pumped in a moment of crisis -- is now around two million barrels a day, according to most estimates. That's just 2.3% of daily demand, and nearly all of the safety cushion is in one country, Saudi Arabia. Everyone else is pretty much pumping all they can, which makes the world vulnerable to political or other shocks.
随着全球各大产油国不断传出令人沮丧的消息，石油市场也变得更易波动。石油输出国组织(Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, 简称：欧佩克)的老牌成员印度尼西亚近日表示，它或许会在明年退出欧佩克，因为它的石油日产量不断下滑，已经降至20世纪90年代初顶峰时期（日产量170万桶）的一半以下。印度尼西亚自2004年以来一直是石油净进口国。
The oil market has become all the more skittish amid a raft of gloomy news from big oil producers. Indonesia, a longtime member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, says it may pull out of the cartel next year as its production continues to fall to less than half its peak of 1.7 million barrels a day in the early 1990s. Indonesia has been a net oil importer since 2004.
在尼日利亚，能源设施不断遭到武装袭击，石油工人的罢工上周才刚刚结束，这也进一步表明该国被称为“极不可靠的石油供应国”的确名副其实。各种破坏行动已经使该国至少四分之一的有效产能（每日约250万桶）被迫关闭。
In Nigeria, a series of militant attacks on energy infrastructure and an oil workers' strike that ended last week have added to the country's reputation as one of the most unreliable oil suppliers. Sabotage has shut down at least one quarter of Nigeria's effective pumping capacity of 2.5 million barrels a day.
一些非欧佩克成员的产油国也令石油市场失望不已，比如，墨西哥和俄罗斯等国投资不足以及油田老化的状况制约了原油产量。
The world oil market has also learned to be disappointed with non-OPEC producers, as underinvestment and aging oil fields in places such as Mexico and Russia have crimped crude production.
非欧佩克成员国的石油产量今年或许会增加约1%，低于很多分析师的预期。总部位于巴黎的国际能源署(International Energy Agency)今年4月再次调低了对非欧佩克成员国今年石油供应的前景预期，这个由石油消费国提供资金支持的组织把非欧佩克成员国石油日产量的预期下调了85,000桶，至5,050万桶。
Non-OPEC production may grow this year by about 1%, below many analysts' expectations. The Paris-based International Energy Agency, funded by consuming nations, in April again cut its 2008 non-OPEC supply outlook for the year, this time by 85,000 barrels a day to 50.5 million barrels a day.
在过去八个月中，欧佩克一直维持其产量目标不变，而且拒绝任何提高供应量的要求，即使原油价格自该机构去年9月提高产量以来已经上涨了54%。欧佩克当前最大的石油供应国沙特阿拉伯最近清楚地暗示，该国并无打算在2009年之后再增加产能。
OPEC has kept its production target unchanged for eight months and has rebuffed calls for more supply even though crude prices have increased 54% since the 13-nation group last raised its production target at a meeting in September. Saudi Arabia, the cartel's largest supplier by far, has sent strong signals recently that it doesn't see adding additional production capacity beyond 2009.
高盛在发给客户的一份报告中表示，该行认为眼下的能源危机或许正在走向顶点，因供应增速不足的问题正变得更加明显。该行称，原油平均价格可能会在明年触及每桶200美元，而这种预测在几个月前听来还显得有点 谱。
'We believe that the current energy crisis may be coming to a head, as a lack of adequate supply growth is becoming apparent,' Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients. The bank said oil could hit an average of $200 a barrel next year, a prediction that would have seemed outlandish just months ago.
美国能源部(U.S. Energy Department)现预测原油均价将在今年达到每桶109美元，较上月的预期提高了9美元。美国政府也提高了对汽油价格的预期，表示汽油均价将在6月触顶，达到每加仑3.73美元，较此前的预期高0.13美元。
The U.S. Energy Department now predicts that oil will average $109 a barrel this year, raising its forecast by $9 from last month. The government also raised its prediction for gasoline prices, saying they should peak at an average of $3.73 a gallon on average in June, 13 cents higher than its previous forecast.
这样的预期在三位美国总统竞选候选人中引发了激烈的论战。希拉里?克林顿(Hillary Clinton)和约翰?麦凯恩(John McCain)要求在夏季停收汽油税，以缓解消费者的压力。而巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)反对这个提议，认为这只是治标不治本。
Such forecasts have sparked a debate among the three major presidential candidates, with Sens. Hillary Clinton and John McCain calling for a gas-tax holiday over the summer to ease the pain for consumers. Sen. Barack Obama opposes the idea, calling it a quick fix that doesn't address the real problem.
Neil King Jr. / Spencer Swartz
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