China's Auto-Parts Makers Gain
2007年12月05日11:11
分析师指出，全球范围的外包及企业并购热潮有望推动中国大型汽车零部件生产商的股票进一步走高。
THE ENGINES of global outsourcing, mergers and acquisitions are likely to power a further increase in the shares of China's biggest publicly traded makers of auto parts, analysts say.
花旗集团(Citigroup)驻香港分析师Charles Cheung表示，外包市场正在加速发展；在中资企业搜索海外收购目标的同时，欧美汽车厂家也在寻找廉价的生产服务。这一趋势已为部分上市汽车零部件生产商带来提振，像敏实集团(Minth Group)和福耀玻璃(Fuyao Group Glass)等都在受益者之列。
'Outsourcing is accelerating,' says Charles Cheung, an analyst at Citigroup in Hong Kong. U.S. and European auto makers are hunting for lower-cost production, he says, while Chinese companies are 'looking for overseas acquisition targets.' The trend is starting to fuel some listed parts makers, such as Minth Group and Fuyao Group Glass Industries.
有迹象表明，市场对中国产汽车零部件的需求量正在不断加大；上周，通用汽车(General Motors)全球采购副总裁波?安德森(Bo Andersson)在北京表示，该公司将大量增加向福耀和其他中国供应商的采购量。
In a sign of the growing demand for Chinese-made components, a senior General Motors purchasing executive said during a visit to Beijing last week that the giant car maker would sharply increase the volume of parts it buys from Fuyao and other Chinese suppliers.
安德森表示，他预计在2010年之前，通用每年在中国的采购量增幅平均将达到25%。安德森透露，目前通用平均每月从中国采购2,000万只汽车零部件，运往设在其他国家的工厂用于装配。
Bo Andersson, vice president for global purchasing, said he expects GM's parts purchases in China to rise by an average of 25% annually until 2010. On average, GM now ships about 20 million components a month from China to plants in other countries, he said.
还有其他汽车厂商也采取了类似做法。福特汽车(Ford Motor)在南京开设了一家研发中心，其最初阶段的重点是帮助福特寻找更多的低价中国产汽车零部件，并与本地企业合作，改善产品质量和可靠性。其他来自美国、欧洲乃至亚洲其他地区的汽车企业也开始采购更多中国产汽车零部件。
GM isn't alone. Ford Motor has opened a research-and-development center in Nanjing that is focused, initially, on helping expand the company's use of parts from lower-cost Chinese suppliers and working with local firms to improve quality and reliability. Other global auto makers from the U.S., Europe and elsewhere in Asia are also stepping up purchases of Chinese-made components.
随着规模和胃口的加大，中国汽车零部件生产商还希望通过收购来加速扩张，并获得更先进的技术。包括万向集团(Wanxiang Group)在内的一些企业已开始收编美国公司，其他一些公司则表示正在考虑类似动作。
As Chinese component manufacturers grow in size and ambition, they are seeking acquisitions to speed expansion and give them access to better technology. Companies such as Wanxiang Group have acquired U.S. companies, and others say they are looking to do the same.
当然，这么做是有风险的。钢铁、成品油及其他原材料的价格急速上涨，给汽车零部件生产商的利润率带来了压力。人民币走强则是另一个潜在不利因素，因为它推高了中国产品在国际市场的价格。
Of course, there are risks. The prices of steel, petroleum products and other raw materials have risen sharply, putting pressure on parts makers' profit margins. The strengthening of the yuan, which makes Chinese products more expensive in U.S. dollars, is another possible difficulty.
不过，人民币升值也意味着中资企业收购海外资产的能力有所增强，特别是在美国汽车零部件行业已很不景气的情况下。不过，任何收购建议可能都要和私人资本公司及其他投资者展开一番竞争，身处困境的美国企业周围不乏这些投资者的身影。
The flip side of the stronger yuan is that it could bolster the ability of Chinese companies to purchase overseas assets, especially in the troubled U.S. auto-parts industry. Still, any potential bids would face competition from the private-equity and vulture investors now circling wounded U.S. companies.
Cheung和其他分析师指出，虽然汇率波动和生产价格走势都不理想，但那些实力较强的零部件生产企业仍能获得长足发展。Cheung认为，美国经济增速放缓也有可能惠及中国汽车零部件供应商，因为美国汽车企业面对压力，更有必要物色相对本土企业成本更低的零部件供应商。
Citigroup's Mr. Cheung and other analysts say the better component manufacturers will thrive despite unfavorable shifts in exchange rates and input prices. Mr. Cheung says a weaker U.S. economy also could benefit Chinese parts suppliers, as American auto makers will be under greater pressure to find lower-cost producers than those at home.
兴业证券(Industrial Securities)驻上海分析师韩吟华表示，中国在劳动密集型行业中占有优势，汽车零部件生产即是其一，将有很多生产商因海外订单而获利。
'China has an advantage in these labor-intensive businesses like auto parts,' says Han Yinhua, an analyst at Industrial Securities in Shanghai. 'We could see many suppliers with overseas orders benefit.'
福耀玻璃就是这些最有可能因持续升温的外包风潮而受益的企业之一。这家总部位于福州的玻璃生产企业已在上海证交所A股市场上市。该公司是通用和福特的供应商，同时还为大众汽车(Volkswagen)旗下的奥迪(Audi)系列提供车用玻璃。
One of the companies most likely to gain from the rising tide of sourcing is Fuyao Glass. Based in the southern city of Fuzhou, the company lists yuan-denominated A shares, primarily for domestic investors, on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The company is a supplier for GM, Ford and Volkswagen's Audi brand.
通用的安德森对记者特别提到了福耀玻璃，称其将从美国汽车企业收获更多商机。他表示，该公司有望在五年内成为通用五大玻璃供应商之一。
GM's Mr. Andersson singled out Fuyao to reporters as a company that could see more business from the U.S. auto maker. He said the company has the potential to become one of GM's five biggest glass suppliers within five years.
兴业证券另一位汽车行业分析师朱学东表示，随着更多产品出口到海外汽车市场，福耀玻璃肯定会从中受益。
'Fuyao will absolutely benefit more' from rising sales to international car makers, predicts Zhu Xuedong, another Industrial Securities auto analyst.
福耀玻璃的股票周二收于人民币27.99元（合3.78美元），较今年年初上涨了近90%。同期上证综合指数的涨幅为84%。
Yesterday, shares of Fuyao closed at 27.99 yuan ($3.78) each, or 90% above their level at the start of 2007. For the same period, the Shanghai Composite Index is up 84%.
Cheung非常看好敏实集团。这家在香港上市的公司为通用、福特、丰田汽车(Toyota Motor)、大众汽车和现代汽车(Hyundai Motor)等厂家生产内饰件和车身结构件等。
One of Mr. Cheung's favorites is Minth, which is listed in Hong Kong. It makes interior fittings and structural components for GM, Ford, Toyota Motor, Volkswagen and Hyundai Motor among others.
Cheung在8月底对敏实集团再次给出了“买进”评级，原因是该公司今年上半年利润率有所加大。敏实集团主要在本土销售，为跨国汽车生产商在华子公司提供产品，不过，该公司也有出口业务。花旗集团提供的数据显示，今年上半年该公司出口占总销售的比例为16%。
In late August, Mr. Cheung reiterated his 'buy' recommendation on Minth after seeing the company's profit margins widen in the first half of the year. Minth's sales are primarily domestic -- it supplies the China operations of international manufacturers -- but it also exports. In the first half of the year, 16% of sales went abroad, according to Citigroup.
Cheung表示，外国汽车企业外包规模的扩大将带动敏实未来几年的发展。
Mr. Cheung says increased outsourcing will help drive Minth's growth in coming years.
敏实的股票周二收盘下跌0.08港元至11.68港元（合1.50美元），不过该股今年迄今涨幅已达83%，并曾在7月5日创下13.50港元的收盘高点。
Shares of Minth slipped eight Hong Kong cents yesterday to HK$11.68 (US$1.50), though they are up 83% this year. Their peak close was HK$13.50 on July 5.
Gordon Fairclough
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