油价过百元，经济能持否？

How Economy Could Survive Oil At $100 A Barrel
2007年10月01日13:12
虽然多少有些消化不良，但全球经济总算是吞下了80多美元/桶的油价果子，那么，如果油价进一步涨到100美元/桶，它是否还能吞得下去呢？

The world economy has managed, with some indigestion, to swallow the rise of oil prices past $80 a barrel. How well could it survive $100 a barrel?

答案是问题不大，但前提是现有的几个条件仍然存在：油价上涨循序渐进；通货膨胀不能糟糕到必须以大幅加息来遏制的水平；富油国需要让售油利润回流到美国和欧洲经济体。

The answer is quite well -- so long as several conditions still hold true. The price rise would probably have to be gradual. Inflation couldn't get so bad as to force big interest-rate hikes. Oil-rich nations would need to pump their profits back into U.S. and European economies.

上述所有条件到目前为止都是事实。尽管外界对油价上涨将引发美国经济衰退仍是顾虑重重，但皆大欢喜的局面是有可能维持下去的。

All of this has happened so far. The happy confluence may continue, though fears remain strong that high energy prices will tip the U.S. into recession.

石油供应吃紧和弱势美元等众多因素预示着油价会进一步上涨。一些分析师仍然相信，油价势必会创造新的历史高点，若按照目前的美元汇率衡量，这个高点要在每桶 101美元之上。前次的纪录高点是在1980年创下的。上周五纽约基准原油期货价格收盘下跌1.22美元，至81.66美元，跌幅1.5%。这个价格较未经通胀调整的历史高点只有2美元多一点的距离。

A host of factors, including tight oil supplies and a weak U.S. dollar, suggest that oil prices have further to rise. Some analysts continue to believe that oil is destined to reach an all-time high, as measured in today's dollars, of more than $101 a barrel. The record was set in 1980. On Friday in New York, the benchmark crude-oil futures price closed down $1.22, or 1.5%, to finish at $81.66, a little more than $2 off the all-time high, not adjusting for inflation.

若油价高企威胁到消费者的钱袋子，那么有可能引发严重后果，特别是在经济已遭受房屋市场疲软打击的美国。要知道，消费支出一直是近年来美国经济增长的主要动力。

High oil prices could lead to ugly consequences if they hit consumers' pocketbooks -- especially in the U.S., where the housing slump is already hurting the economy. Consumer spending has been the primary engine of growth in the U.S. in recent years.

上周有几家主要零售商调降了销售预期，Target Corp.也在其中。该公司预计，9月份同店销售将增长1.5%至2.5%，增幅远低于早前预计的4%至6%。

Target Corp. was among the major retailers in the last week cutting sales forecasts. Target expects September sales at stores open at least a year to rise just 1.5% to 2.5%, down from an earlier expectation of 4% to 6% growth.

尽管有如此多的顾虑，但当今世界要比卡特总统(Jimmy Carter)在白宫安装太阳能和烧柴火的时代更能消化油价高企的影响。

For all the concern, the world today is better equipped to swallow expensive oil than it was when Jimmy Carter was installing solar panels and a wood-burning stove in the White House.

主要的原因就在于所谓的“沃尔玛效应”(Wal-Mart effect)。近年来，消费者在汽车燃料上每多掏1美元，中国和其他低成本出口国就会以廉价零售品的形式反还给他们大概1.5美元。即使在目前油价逼近历史高位的情况下，美国家庭在购买汽车燃料上的开销还不到可支配收入的4%，而1980年这个比例超过了6%。

The main reason has to do with what some call the Wal-Mart effect. For every extra dollar taken from drivers' pockets at the pump in the form of higher prices in recent years, low-cost exporters from China and elsewhere have put roughly $1.50 back in the form of cheaper retail goods. Even at today's near-record prices, U.S. households today spend less than 4% of their disposable income at the pump, vs. over 6% in 1980.

当前油价高企也是经济运行强劲的一种反映，并非石油禁运或中东地区的战争所导致。自从委内瑞拉和沙特阿拉伯为争夺市场而大量输出原油造成油价在1998年跌破每桶11美元以来，油价已经上涨近七倍。而与此同时全球经济在以每年大约5%的速度增长。

Current prices are also a reflection of a strong economy, not an oil embargo or war in the Middle East. Since a market-share war between Saudi Arabia and Venezuela flooded the market with oil and drove prices to below $11 a barrel in 1998, oil prices have risen nearly eight-fold. During that run, the global economy grew roughly 5% each year.

中国等国家经济强劲增长缓和了油价上涨对欧美公司的冲击，底特律三大汽车制造商也在其中。福特汽车公司(Ford Motor Co.)首席经济学家艾伦?休斯?克朗维科(Ellen Hughes Cromwick)称，许多新兴市场正在到达一个“起飞”阶段，这些国家的人均收入达到了产生大量汽车需求的水平。她认为，新兴市场的增长属于“结构性发展”，对“油价变动的敏感程度小”。

Strong growth in places like China helps take some of the edge off the oil-price blow for U.S. and European companies such as Detroit's Big Three auto makers. Many emerging markets are hitting a 'takeoff' stage, where per-capita income reaches a level that sparks serious auto demand, says Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, Ford Motor Co.'s chief economist. Growth in emerging markets is a 'structural development' that is 'less sensitive to oil-price changes,' she says.

著名石油历史学家、剑桥能源研究协会(Cambridge Energy Research Associates)主席丹尼尔?尤金(Daniel Yergin)称，现在大家对油价上涨的态度更为放松。他表示，他最近在出席美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称Fed)前主席格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)的回忆录发布会时，曾经向格老问及油价涨至80美元是否是个令人担心的问题，格老只是耸耸肩，回答说“到目前为止还不是”。

'There's a more relaxed attitude now,' said Daniel Yergin, a noted oil historian and chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates. At a recent event promoting Alan Greenspan's new memoir, Mr. Yergin asked the former Fed chief on stage if $80 oil was a concern. 'He basically shrugged and said, 'Not so far,'' Mr. Yergin recalls.

经济学家们认为，尽管全球经济增长已出现了放缓，但今明两年的扩张速度仍将达到相对稳健的3%。高油价还意味着俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯这样的产油国将握有更多可用于全球投资的资金。独立能源经济学家菲利普?费勒格(Philip Verleger Jr.)表示，如果资源所有者能够藉此拥有更多的钱用于消费和投资，那么在美国经济不陷入衰退的前提下，100美元的油价就应该不是个问题，而且市场中这样的投资已经浮出了水面。

Economists see global growth slowing but still chugging along at a relatively healthy 3% this year and next. High oil prices also mean more money for oil-producing nations such as Russia and Saudi Arabia to invest globally. 'If resource owners are now getting a bigger piece of the pie to spend and invest, then $100 oil shouldn't be a problem' in the absence of a U.S. recession, says independent energy economist Philip Verleger Jr. 'And that investment is happening.'

尽管如此乐观的看法远非共识，但这反映出经济学家对能源价格如何影响经济的理解已经发生了根本性变化。

Such sanguine views, while they are far from universal, reflect a fundamental shift in economists' understanding of how energy prices affect the economy.

过去，油价会因突然而严重的供应中断在短短几周内就上涨一、两倍，在伊朗革命和两伊战争爆发后的1980年就出现过此类情况。这促使Fed大幅加息，以抑制随之而来不断加剧的通货膨胀压力。

Historically, oil prices have doubled or trebled in a matter of weeks because of sudden and sharp supply disruptions, such as those in 1980 following the Iranian revolution and the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq war. That prompted the Fed to raise interest rates sharply in an effort to head off a spiral of inflation.

Fed 现任主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)曾经花费了大量时间研究此类冲击。在1997年，他在《布鲁金斯经济活动报告》(Brookings Papers on Economic Activity)中分析了在1973-1975、1980-1982和1990-1991年间油价飙升对经济产生的影响。他得出了一个出人意料的结论： Fed对高油价开出的药方比高油价本身对经济的危害更大。

Current Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has spent a lot of time trying to understand such shocks. In 1997, he analyzed the effects of sharp rise in prices during the oil shocks of 1973-75, 1980-1982 and 1990-91 in the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. His surprising conclusion: The Fed's cure for high oil prices was worse than the disease.

他在报告中指出，油价飙升对真实经济的冲击主要应归咎于央行对油价飙升引发的通货膨胀压力所做出的反应。今天，这种观点在央行官员中间已经成为一种相当主流的看法。

'The majority of the impact of an oil price shock on the real economy is attributable to the central bank's response to the inflationary pressures engendered by the shock,' he wrote. Today, that view is fairly mainstream among central bankers.

贝南克领导的Fed不久前因次级贷款危机的影响下调了基准利率，这是四年来的第一次。此举意味着，Fed更担心信贷危机的后果，而非通货膨胀的风险。在油价屡创纪录高位之际，这一举动尽管冒险但也有理有据。

Mr. Bernanke's Fed recently responded to the subprime mortgage crisis by cutting benchmark interest rates for the first time in four years. By implication, the Fed was saying it was more worried about the fallout from credit-market gloom than about the risk of inflation. At a time of record energy prices, that's a risky but educated bet.

燃油效率的不断提高也可能减弱油价上涨带来的冲击。Union Pacific Corp.的发言人詹姆士?巴恩斯(James Barnes)说，铁路系统购入了更多节油机车，并对火车司机进行了培训，教他们以更节油的方式驾驭火车。巴恩斯说，“从宏观角度来看，我们预计油价上涨将使我们相对卡车运输而言更具竞争力，这有可能为我们带来更多的业务。”

Growing fuel efficiency could also blunt the blow of higher prices. James Barnes, a Union Pacific Corp. spokesman, says the railroad has bought more fuel-efficient locomotives and trained engineers to operate trains in ways that conserve fuel. 'From a macro level, we would anticipate that rising oil costs will make us more competitive [with trucks] and potentially drive more business our way,' Mr. Barnes says.

在中国这个堪称全球经济引擎的国度，还有其他能源可以用来弥补石油的不足。中国只有21%的能源需求依靠石油满足，剩余部分主要由煤炭来承担。美国的进口石油最终经加工后注入了汽车油箱，但中国却将大部分石油用于工业用途，而在这一领域煤炭可以充当石油的替代品。不过，煤炭使用范围的扩大也将加剧中国已然严重的污染问题，并加快温室气体的排放。

In China, the engine of growth on which many are counting, other energy sources can make up for oil. China uses oil for only 21% of its energy needs, with most of the rest coming from coal. Unlike in the U.S., where imported oil goes to fill people's gasoline tanks, China mainly uses oil in industrial settings, where coal may be an alternative. Greater coal use, however, would also exacerbate China's already serious pollution problem and speed up emissions of gases that contribute to global warming.

尽管如此，仍有人担心每桶100美元的石油将成为美国难以跨越的障碍。YRC Worldwide Inc.的董事长兼首席执行长比尔?佐拉斯(Bill Zollars)说，如果说我们现在还没有走向衰退，那么100美元的油价会将我们推入这一轨道；由于当下的经济环境非常脆弱，这可能成为消费者和企业界肩上的又一负担。

Still, some fear the impact of $100-a-barrel oil would be too powerful for the U.S. to overcome. 'If we aren't already headed for a recession, it could push us in that direction,' says Bill Zollars, chairman and chief executive officer of YRC Worldwide Inc., a large trucking company based in Overland Park, Kan. 'With a very fragile economy like we have now, this could be another burden for the consumer and the business community.'

佐拉斯说，YRC运输量已经降到了2003年的水平。他补充说，在圣诞零售高峰到来前通常见到的繁忙局面今年将不会出现。YRC是堪萨斯州一家大型的卡车运输公司，服务于多家零售商和制造商。

Mr. Zollars says shipment volumes at YRC, which serves many retailers and manufacturers, have dropped to 2003 levels. 'We are not seeing the kind of volume we would normally expect' ahead of the Christmas retail season, he adds.

油价上涨有可能对已深陷困境的汽车和航空业造成打击。由于油价飙升导致市场对运动型多用途车(SUV)的需求下降，底特律的汽车生产商仍在为此苦苦挣扎。通用汽车(General Motors Corp.)首席销售分析师保罗?巴罗(Paul Ballew)曾于9月初表示，油价高企是汽车销售不景气的原因之一，他将高油价称为“美国家庭的一项赋税。”

Higher oil prices could hit the beleaguered auto and airline industries. Detroit is still digging out from the fall in demand for sport-utility vehicles caused by the climb in gasoline prices. Paul Ballew, General Motors Corp.'s top sales analyst, explained sluggish industry sales earlier this month by citing in part high fuel prices, which he called 'effectively a tax on U.S. households.'

眼下多数经济学家预期，油价直至明年都将维持在高位。他们认为，墨西哥湾一场突然袭来的飓风或者是伊朗、墨西哥这类产油大国的供应突然中断都有可能将油价推高至100美元。

For now, most economists expect oil prices will stay high through next year. An unexpected hurricane in the Gulf or a sudden disruption to oil flows from a big producer like Iran or Mexico could push oil to $100, they say.

需求仍在不停增加。总部设在巴黎的国际能源署(International Energy Agency)预计，第四季度的全球石油需求将较上年同期增长2.8%（合每天增加230万桶），达到每天将近8,800万桶的水平。

Demand is chugging along. The Paris-based International Energy Agency sees world oil demand in the fourth quarter rising by 2.8%, or 2.3 million barrels a day from a year ago, to nearly 88 million barrels a day.

当然，如果美国经济走入下坡并将欧洲和日本也带入衰退的话，那么这些预测就有可能与实际情况不符。届时需求可能有所下降，油价或随之回落，而且跌势可能还颇为猛烈。若果真如此，那时整个世界就有其他问题可担心了。

Of course, those forecasts could go awry if the U.S. economy tanks and brings Europe and Japan along with it. Then demand would likely ease, and oil prices could fall, perhaps significantly. And then, the world would have something else to worry about.

Peter Fritsch / Kelly Evans

原文链接：http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20071001/ecb134129.asp