Dow Breaks Through 11000
道指突破11000点 市场乐观情绪升温
Lifted by optimism about corporate profits, a recovering economy and the latest debt-relief plan for Greece, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 11000, something it hadn't achieved since the financial system began teetering nearly 19 months ago. By inching past the milestone -- rising just 8.62 points, or 0.08%, to 11005.97 -- the Dow continued what amounts to a stealth rally in a market characterized by below-average trading volume and small daily moves.
受投资者对公司盈利的乐观预期、经济复苏形势和最新的希腊债务救援方案提振，周一道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)收于11000点上方。这是近19个月以前金融系统开始倾颓以来未曾出现过的情况。道指收于11005.97点，上涨仅8.62点，涨幅为0.08%。突破11000点关口的道指延续了一种悄然展开的涨势：市场成交量低于平均水平，每日波动幅度也不是很大。
The Dow has risen on 23 of the past 30 trading days, but moved more than 100 points only once, on March 23. It has risen 68% since bottoming out in March 2009, but is up just 6% this year.
过去30个交易日中，道指实现上涨的有23个，但涨幅超过100点的只有3月23日这一天。相比2009年3月触及的底部上涨了68%，但今年以来的涨幅仅有6%。
Investors have been torn between a conviction that the recession is over and fears that unemployment, high debt levels and still-troubled housing and lending markets could prevent a normal recovery.
投资者意见分歧，有的人相信，衰退已经结束；有的人又担心，在失业率和债务水平高企、楼市和信贷市场依旧疲软的情况下，经济或许难以展开一种常见形态的复苏。
The market's ability to finally move past the landmark 11000 level suggests the optimists remain in charge.
市场能够最终突破11000点大关，说明还是乐观派处于上风。
'It does give you the feeling that people are recognizing the sustainability of the recovery. They clearly are factoring in the improved profit environment,' said Christopher Sheldon, chief investment strategist at BNY Mellon Wealth Management.
资产管理公司BNY Mellon Wealth Management首席投资策略师谢尔登(Christopher Sheldon)说，它确实让你感觉到，人们在意识到复苏的可持续性；他们显然是在交易中考虑到了盈利环境改善的因素。
Individual investors aren't driving the gains, according to analysts who track their behavior. Instead, the rise is led by hedge funds and other professionals. Purchases of U.S.-stock mutual funds have remained anemic over the past year, dwarfed by demand for bond funds and for funds that invest in developing countries.
跟踪散户投资行为的分析师说，道指上涨并不是散户推动，而是由对冲基金和其他专业投资者带动的。在过去一年，美股类共同基金的购买情况一直不旺，相比之下，债券类基金或投资于发展中国家的基金需求更好。
Since the tech-stock debacle in 2000 and 2001, small investors as a group have become skeptical of the stock market and have rarely shown a large appetite for U.S. stocks.
从2000年到2001年科技股泡沫破灭以来，小投资者在整体上已对股票市场产生怀疑，很少显示出对美股的强烈偏好。
The fuel for the recent gains has included a string of upbeat news about the economy. March sales numbers at chain stores came in strong, reinforcing hopes created by earlier news that the economy began creating jobs overall in March.
推动股市近期上涨的因素中，包括一系列有关经济形势的乐观消息。3月份连锁店销售数据强劲，在早前消息表明3月份就业岗位普遍增加的基础上，进一步增强了人们的乐观预期。
Indexes of both manufacturing and service-sector business activity have begun showing gains, suggesting that economic improvement has become broad.
反映制造业和服务业商业活动水平的各项指数都已经开始显示出增长，说明经济形势的改善已经延伸到各个方面。
And analysts are forecasting 37% overall gains when companies in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index release first-quarter profit reports, well above the 7% historic average, according to Thomson Reuters.
另外汤森路透(Thomson Reuters)数据显示，据分析师预测，标准普尔500种股票价格指数(Standard & Poor's 500-stock index)成份股公司公布一季度财报时，它们的整体利润将显示出37%的增长，远高于7%的历史平均水平。
Investors are also showing signs of being more demanding this earnings season.
迹象还表明，本财季投资者有着更高的期待。
After the regular trading day ended, Alcoa Inc. became the first component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to release first-quarter results. It met analysts' profit expectations but came up short on sales; its stock edged down 0.48% in after-hours trading.
周一常规交易结束后，美国铝业公司(Alcoa Inc.)成为首家公布一季度业绩的道指成份股公司。其利润达到了分析师的预期，但销售额低于预期。盘后交易中，该公司股价微幅下跌0.48%。
Overall trading volume has been in a slump for most of this year compared with last year, contributing to concerns that the large gains of the past 13 months may be nearing an end. Trading in New York Stock Exchange stocks has been below the 2009 average on all but three days since the start of March.
今年以来的大部分时间内，总体交易量同比均呈大幅度下降，加上其他因素，使人担心过去13个月以来股市的大幅度增长可能正在接近尾声。除去3月份头三个交易日，其他时间纽约证券交易所(New York Stock Exchange)的股票成交情况均低于2009年平均水平。
Many analysts consider below-average volume as a negative, because it suggests a lack of eagerness. If the market is going to move significantly higher, the thinking goes, it needs to see higher-volume buying sooner or later.
许多分析师认为，交易量低于平均水平不是件好事，因为这显示投资者缺乏买进的迫切愿望。其思路是，如果市场要大幅走高，买盘数量迟早都得升高。
On Monday, 4.75 billion NYSE stocks changed hands overall, below the 2009 average of 5.54 billion.
周一在纽约证交所，总共有47.5亿股股票易手，低于55.4亿股的2009年平均水平。
Some worry that the economy will fail to live up to investors' expectations or that huge government-borrowing needs will push interest rates higher, stifling the market recovery.
一些人担心，经济状况可能达不到投资者的预期，他们还担心美国政府巨大的借款需求将推高利率，从而妨碍市场的复苏。
Few, however, consider weak volume alone a reason to sell. An old Wall Street saying holds that investors shouldn't short a dull market, meaning they shouldn't bet against stocks when the market is quiet.
但没有什么人认为仅仅因为股市成交量不高就应该选择卖出。华尔街有句老话说，投资者在市场反应迟缓时不应选择卖空，这话的意思是，当市场波澜不惊时，投资者不应把宝押在股市将下跌上。
Plenty of investors share the view that the market could be peaking, at least in the short term. They worry that investors are showing signs of increasing complacency, which can be a sign that investors have become overly optimistic and that the market has come too far, too fast.
许多投资者都认为，股市可能正在见顶，至少短期内是如此。他们担心，投资者正在显示出惬意感日益增大的迹象，这可被视为投资者已变得过分乐观，以及市场已涨得太高、太快了。
Both the Dow and the S&P 500 are at landmark levels. The S&P 500, which finished at 1196.48 on Monday, seems to be stuck just below 1200.
道琼斯指数和标准普尔500指数都达到了里程碑式的水平。标普500指数周一收于1196.48点，似乎已稳定在距1200点仅一步之遥的地方。
Both are trading in the same area they traded at the time that Lehman Brothers was failing. The Dow was at 11421.99 on the trading day before Lehman filed for bankruptcy protection, and fell below 11000 on the day of the filing. It moved back and forth through 11000 after that, resuming its decline on Sept. 29, 2008, after Congress initially rejected efforts to bail out financial companies.
道琼斯指数和标准普尔500指数目前的波动区间目前都已恢复到雷曼兄弟公司(Lehman Brothers)垮台时的水平。在雷曼兄弟申请破产保护的前一个交易日，道琼斯指数为11421.99点，而在该公司申请破产保护当天，道琼斯指数跌破了11000点。此后该指数曾一度收复了11000点，但在美国国会最初拒绝了救助金融企业之后，道琼斯指数在2008年9月29日又转而下跌。
Tuesday's market move is important because, unlike the 10000 level, 11000 hasn't often been crossed in the past, says Jeffrey Kleintop, chief market strategist at brokerage firm LPL Financial. In all, the Dow has now risen through 11000 on 35 occasions.
经纪公司LPL Financial的首席市场策略师克兰托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)认为，周二的市场动向将具有重要意义，因为与10000点不同，11000点关口以往并不经常被突破。道琼斯指数只升穿过11000点35次。
'We believe the stock market is due for another 5% to 10% pullback as the earnings season gets under way,' Mr. Kleintop says. 'Following the pullback to near 10000 once again, we expect a rally to the highs with the Dow back over 11000 by mid-year.'
克兰托普说，我们认为，随着收益报告发布季节的展开，美国股市将再回调5%至10%。他说，当道琼斯指数回落到又接近10000点时，我们预计它将会回升，在年中前重新收复11000点。
Supporting the notion that a pullback may be in the cards: Investor polls show unusually high levels of optimism, and relatively low use of options to protect against market declines, a potential sign of investor overconfidence.
以下几个因素可以支持股市即将发生回调的观点：调查显示，投资者的乐观情绪高得不同寻常，而通过使用期权来对冲市场下跌风险的做法却相对不普遍，这有可能显示投资者的信心过于强烈了。
Another indicator of complacency: The Vix, a measure of market fear based on options trading and tracked by the Chicago Board Options Exchange, fell to 15.58 Monday, its lowest level since July 2007, before the market turmoil began.
另一个显示投资者惬意感的指标是Vix，芝加哥期权交易所编制的这一指数基于期权交易情况来衡量市场的恐慌程度。该指数周一降至15.58点的2007年7月以来最低水平，当时正是市场动荡期开始的前夜。
But while the National Bureau of Economic Research -- the recognized arbiter of the start and end dates for recessions -- has declined so far to declare the recession officially ended, many investors remain focused on signs of economic recovery.
不过，虽然美国经济衰退起止时间权威确定机构美国国家经济研究局(National Bureau of Economic Research)迄今为止一直拒绝宣布经济衰退已经正式结束，但许多投资者依然把关注点放在了经济复苏的迹象上。
Overall, the indicators that many analysts look for as a sign of imminent trouble aren't flashing red. All the major indexes, and many minor ones, are making new highs at the same time.
总的来看，那些许多投资者期待从中发现麻烦迫在眉睫迹象的指标并未亮起红灯。所有主要指数，以及许多不那么重要的指数，都在同一时间创出新高。
The number of advancing stocks far exceeds declining ones, and the number hitting new highs is much larger than the number hitting new lows. All of which suggests widespread market support.
上涨股数量远多于下跌股数量，股价升至新高的股票远多于股价跌至新低的股票。所有这些都显示，市场支撑力是广泛的。
Perhaps most important, investors have been reassured by Federal Reserve promises to keep interest rates low, which has been an essential market underpinning.
或许最重要的是，美联储(Federal Reserve)承诺要把利率保持在低位一直对投资者起着安抚作用，这一承诺一直是重要的市场支撑因素。
E.S. Browning
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