Gains In A GM Bankruptcy
通用汽车破产利弊谈
The likely bankruptcy of General Motors Corp. -- which would include months of shedding plants, brands, jobs and dealers -- threatens the U.S. economy just as the recession shows signs of abating. But in the end, bankruptcy for GM could be good for the American economy.
在衰退刚刚显露出缓和迹象时，通用汽车公司(General Motors Corp.)可能申请破产保护──其中包括用几个月的时间削减工厂、品牌、员工和经销商──会威胁到美国的经济。但最终，通用汽车的破产可能有利于美国经济。
Both GM and Chrysler LLC, which could come out of bankruptcy as soon as this week, have for a long time sapped capital -- both human and financial -- that could have been used elsewhere. Even before the economic downturn sank sales, their ability to produce cars outstripped their ability to sell them. 'The rule is that you have scarce resources and you want to allocate them intelligently,' says Bob Barbera, an economist at research and trading firm ITG.
通用汽车和最早本周就能走出破产保护的克莱斯勒(Chrysler LLC)长期以来一直在消耗着本可以用于其它地方的人力和财力资本。即使在经济衰退导致销量下降之前，他们的汽车产能也超过了销售能力。研究与交易公司 ITG的经济学家巴贝拉(Bob Barbera)说，规则是你的资源是稀少，你希望能够明智地进行配置。
If GM's bankruptcy goes as smoothly as the government plans, GM will emerge from Chapter 11 in two or three months a much leaner company. Over time, workers and other resources will move to more productive areas of the economy, helping to boost it. An electrician in a fender-stamping plant might find work at a fuel-cell maker; a supplier might go from making parts for transmission systems to making parts for wind turbines.
如果通用汽车的破产像政府计划的那样平稳进行，那么通用汽车将在两、三个月内脱胎成为一家更加精干的公司。随着时间的推移，工人和其它资源将转移到生产率更高的经济领域，从而推动经济发展。翼子板厂的电工可以在燃料电池制造企业中找到工作；供应商可能会从生产传输系统零件转型生产风力涡轮机的零部件。
To be sure, pain appears all but inevitable before getting to that point. The giant auto maker employs about 90,000 workers in the U.S., and sustains thousands more indirectly, from Ashland, Ky., steel mills to Bedford, Ind., barbershops. GM's bankruptcy will certainly hurt the economy in the near term -- though much less severely than if it and Chrysler went through disorderly and protracted bankruptcies.
固然，在达到这一目标前将不可避免地造成痛苦。这家汽车制造巨头在美国雇用了大约9万名工人，并间接维持着更多人的生计，从肯塔基州亚什兰的钢铁厂到印第安纳州贝德福德的理发店。通用汽车的破产在短期内肯定会损害到经济，不过如果它和克莱斯勒要进行混乱而旷日持久的破产，情况要好得多。
Under that worst-case scenario, the economy would see an additional 1.3 million job losses this year, according to the nonprofit Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Mich. -- enough to push the unemployment rate up by nearly a full percentage point.
据位于密歇根州安阿伯的非盈利机构汽车研究中心(Centre for Automotive Research)说，在那种情况下，今年美国经济将额外产生130万人的裁员，足以将失业率推高接近一个百分点。
Of those, 203,800 would be lost because the supply chain to U.S. plants owned by Ford Motor Co. and foreign car makers would be disrupted. To that, add 460,700 jobs lost at firms that supply goods and services to auto and auto-parts makers, and 659,500 jobs lost because of reduced spending by laid-off workers. Next year, there would be an additional loss of 446,700 total U.S. jobs.
这其中，由于福特汽车(Ford Motor Co.)和外国汽车制造商下属美国工厂的供应链可能受到打击，有203,800人将会失去工作。此外，向汽车制造商和汽车零部件制造商提供商品和服务的企业将新增460,700名失业者，而失业工人削减开支将带来659,500人失业。明年，美国的就业岗位还将减少446,700个。
Quick, concise bankruptcy restructurings at Chrysler and GM would lead to a total estimated loss of 63,200 jobs this year, with further job losses of 179,400 next year. 'It's still an impact, but a more tolerable impact,' said Center for Automotive Research researcher Debra Menk.
克莱斯勒和通用汽车快速、简洁的破产重组预计今年将导致约63,200人失业，明年可能还有179,000人。汽车研究中心研究员门克(Debra Menk)说，这仍是个影响，但却是能够忍受的影响。
Bankruptcy also beats the government's propping up the auto makers with hopes that the economy will improve. This latter option doesn't solve the fundamental problem, says Wharton School economist John Paul MacDuffie. Its perceived reputation for inconsistent reliability lingers among countless Americans. And Mr. MacDuffie estimates that cars made by Japanese firms routinely fetch $2,000 to $3,000 more than comparable American cars because of real and perceived quality differences.
破产也打击了政府希望通过经济改善支撑汽车制造商的努力。沃顿商学院经济学家迈克杜菲(John Paul MacDuffie)说，后一种选择不能解决根本问题。无数美国人心中都存在着（美国汽车)质量不可靠的阴影。迈克杜菲估计，日本企业生产的轿车通常会比同类美国轿车高出2,000至3,000美元，主要是由于实际上和感觉上的质量差异。
The key to whether the two companies will be successful after they emerge from bankruptcy will be for them to attack their quality problems. If they succeed, the economy will benefit, Mr. MacDuffie says. 'What the auto industry does has tremendous bellwether effects on other industries,' he says.
因此两家公司脱离破产保护后能否成功的关键取决于它们解决质量问题的程度。迈克杜菲说，如果它们成功，将会有利于经济。他说，汽车业的一举一动将对其它行业产生巨大的前导性效应。
For example, U.S. auto makers typically have developed techniques and processes that other manufacturers have gone on to use. At a time when cost-conscious American consumers seem loath to spend as before, manufacturers need to play a larger role. If they don't produce more of what the rest of the world wants, the economy will likely face a longer road to recovery.
例如，美国汽车制造商通常会开发其它制造商已经在使用的技术和工艺。在成本意识上升的美国消费者不愿像以往那样花费之前，制造商需要发挥更大的作用。如果它们不能生产出更多世界其它地区青睐的产品，那么美国经济将可能面临更漫长的复苏之路。
For GM to play that role, however, it will be important for the company to be careful which workers it cuts while it's in bankruptcy, said Susan Helper, an economist at Case Western Reserve University's Weatherhead School of Management. If it loses key engineers, designers and other workers, its ability to make the cars it needs to in the future could be limited. 'I'm really worried about losing specialized capabilities that we're going to want later,' she said. 'It's going to be hard to buy that expertise from Japan and Germany.'
不过，凯斯西储大学(Case Western Reserve University)维德罕管理学院经济学家赫尔珀(Susan Helper)说，通用汽车要想发挥这一作用，重要的是在破产中认真考虑要裁减的人员。如果失去了主要的工程师、设计师和其他工作人员，它在未来生产所需要车型的能力就会受到限制。她说，我真的担心失去以后需要的专业能力，这是很难从日本和德国买到的专业知识。
Justin Lahart
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