福特CEO担忧底特律其他两巨头命运

Ford CEO Worries Detroit Rivals Won't Survive

福特汽车(Ford Motor Co.)首席执行长穆拉利(Alan Mulally)周三表示，他越来越担心通用汽车(General Motors)和克莱斯勒(Chrysler LLC)的命运。底特律三巨头此前提交了具体的业务扭转计划，以寻求获得至多350亿美元的政府担保贷款。

Ford Motor Co. Chief Executive Alan Mulally said Wednesday he was increasingly worried about the fates of General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC after Detroit's Big Three submitted detailed plans to secure up to $35 billion in government-backed loans.

穆拉利在华盛顿接受《华尔街日报》采访时表示，在通用汽车和克莱斯勒对国会表示他们需要立即获得现金注入才能维持生存后，他非常担心它们的财务状况。

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal in Washington, Mr. Mulally said he was 'very concerned' about the financial health of GM and Chrysler after the auto makers told Congress they needed the immediate infusion of cash to survive.

作为寻求财务救助的新举措之一，通用汽车表示自己需要立即获得40亿美元注资才能维持年底前的运转，而要重现生机还需要180亿美元贷款。克莱斯勒的现金也在不断减少，该公司正寻求70亿美元贷款以帮助其支付即将于明年第一季度到期的帐单。

As part of a renewed bid for a financial rescue, GM said it needs an immediate injection of $4 billion to stay afloat until the end of the year and a total of $18 billion in loans to return to viability. With a dwindling pot of cash, Chrysler is seeking $7 billion in loans to help it pay bills coming due as soon as the first quarter of 2009.

穆拉利说，当上个月通用汽车公开表示如果不能尽快获得现金，公司能否继续维持运转将面临疑问时，他的担忧就开始日益加深。11月18日，通用汽车首席执行长瓦格纳(Rick Wagoner)在参加国会听证会时发出了更为悲观的论调，他表示，为汽车制造商提供一揽子贷款是必要的，这样才能避免美国经济陷入灾难性崩溃。

Mr. Mulally traced back his deepening worry to last month when GM publicly questioned whether it could continue to be a 'going concern' without access to quick cash. Testifying before Congress on Nov. 18, GM CEO Rick Wagoner offered a more dire assessment, saying the loan package for the auto makers is needed to save the 'U.S. economy from a catastrophic collapse.'

穆拉利周三表示，我们竞争对手显露出来的状况越来越令人担忧。

'Each revelation by our competitors has been of growing concern,' Mr. Mulally said Wednesday.

记者未能联系到通用汽车和克莱斯勒代表对此置评。

Representatives at GM and Chrysler were not available for immediate comment.

福特汽车正寻求从政府获得90亿美元信用额度，但公司同时表示可能并不需要动用这笔信用额度。福特汽车在周二提交给国会的36页计划中表示，只有当经济状况恶化，或者一家或更多竞争对手倒闭并引起联合供应商网络中断，公司才需要动用这一信用额度。

Ford is seeking a $9 billion line of credit from the government, though it adds it may not need to tap it. According to the 36-page plan it submitted to Congress Tuesday, the company said it will only need to access the line of credit if the economy worsens or one or more of its competitors fail and disrupt a joint supplier network.

穆拉利表示，他了解到供应商目前要求汽车制造商缩短付款期限，包括货到付款。我们现在的供应基础非常脆弱。

Mr. Mulally said he is aware of suppliers who are now demanding shorter payment terms from auto makers, including cash-on-delivery. 'We have a very delicate supply base right now.'

他没有透露具体细节，也没有表示这些要求是否针对福特汽车，或供应商是否正在限制对通用汽车与克莱斯勒的付款期限。他不愿预测新付款期限可能影响的范围。

He offered no details and he wouldn't say whether these demands are coming to Ford or whether the suppliers are tightening terms on GM and Chrysler. He also declined to venture how widespread the new terms could be.

底特律三巨头上个月向国会申请250亿美元的低成本贷款，以帮助他们渡过经济低迷时期，挺过数十年来汽车销量最糟糕的一个时期。但议员们不能确信三巨头有明确的重组计划来重新实现盈利，于是他们让三巨头12月2日带着具体计划再来申请，详细阐述他们会如何使用纳税人资金以保持生 。

The Big Three last month appealed to Congress for $25 billion in low-cost loans to carry them through the downturn in the economy and one of the worst auto sales slumps in decades. But lawmakers were unconvinced that the three had clear restructuring plans to return to profitability and told them to come back by Dec. 2 with more details on how they would use taxpayer funds to 'become viable.'

穆拉利还表示，全美汽车工人联合会(UAW)领导人即将与底特律三巨头达成2007年劳动合同的调整协议，这是个积极的迹象。可能的调整包括了放宽就业保障条款，推迟新的医疗信托生效的日期。

Mr. Mulally also said it was positive sign that leaders of the United Auto Workers union are close to signing off on changes to the 2007 labor contract with Detroit's three auto makers. Changes may include relaxing job-security provisions and push back the date on when a new health-care trust becomes active.

许多国会议员一直在批评底特律三巨头与在美的日本汽车企业相比相对高昂的劳动力成本。

Many in Congress had been critical of the high labor costs Detroit's Big Three have compared with their Japanese competitors operating in the U.S.

穆拉利周四、周五即将参加国会听证会。他对此表示，自己非常希望展示福特汽车与竞争对手的不同之处。他也承认，自己此前由于乘坐公司专机前往华盛顿和数百万美元的年薪遭受了批评，公司从中吸取了很多教训。

Speaking about his upcoming testimony before Congress on Thursday and Friday, Ford's chief executive said he was enthusiastic to demonstrate how different his company is from its competitors. He also admitted Ford learned a lot from the skewering Mr. Mulally received for traveling to Washington on a corporate jet and the size of his multimillion-dollar pay.

如果能获得政府贷款，福特汽车计划出售公司的五架专机，并且穆拉利还将把年薪从200万美元降至1美元。穆拉利这次是乘坐一辆福特油电混合动力SUV抵达华盛顿的。

The company now plans to sell its five aircraft and Mr. Mulally's $2 million salary will be reduced to $1 if Ford accesses government loans. Mr. Mulally arrived in Washington this time inside a Ford gas-electric hybrid SUV.

穆拉利表示，我们和其他汽车制造商境况不同。我们相信自己拥有充足的流动性可以渡过此次衰退。但如果经济继续恶化，行业形势每况愈下，那么即便是福特汽车可能也不得不需要过渡性贷款。

'We are a in a different place' than other auto makers, Mr. Mulally said. 'We believe we have sufficient liquidity to get through this recession. But if the economy continued to deteriorate and the industry continued to deteriorate, then even Ford might have to need a bridge loan also.'

谈到上个月汽车制造商遭受国会的冷遇，穆拉利说，福特汽车与其竞争对手只是没有对议员们后来提出的问题做好准备。穆拉利此前以为听证会将完全专注于美国汽车业的困境问题。

As for the cold shoulder that Congress gave the auto makers last month, Mr. Mulally said Ford and its competitors were simply not ready for the follow-up questions posed by members of Congress. Mr. Mulally had expected the hearings to focus solely on the ailing health of the U.S.-based auto sector.

穆拉利说，当时我们没有为接下来的一轮讨论做好准备。他同时表示，现在我们准备好了。

'We were not prepared for that next round of discussions,' he said. Now, Mr. Mulally added, they are.

Matthew Dolan

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20081204/ffe150014.asp

福特：脚踏实地方能获得救助

Ford And The $9 Billion Joy Ride

在歌剧《窈窕淑女》(My Fair Lady)中，伊莉莎?杜利特尔(Eliza Dolittle)对她的追求者们不敢有所行动大为不满。她最后抱怨到：“一会儿甜言！一会儿蜜语！我对甜言蜜语深感厌恶！成天都是这种甜言蜜语。一会儿是他说，一会儿是你讲！你们这群笨蛋就会做点这个吗？”

In the musical 'My Fair Lady,' Eliza Dolittle, sick of seeing little action from her suitors, finally declared: 'Words! Words! I'm so sick of words! I get words all day through. First from him, now from you! Is that all you blighters can do?'

持怀疑态度的国会议员──他们自己也是废话连篇──可能也会向急于证明自己已从信贷危机中吸取教训的高管、监管者和银行家们提出同样的问题。但尽管这些乞求者可能已经学会了如何像一位忏悔者那样表现，但还不清楚这种真正的忏悔，或说是真正的改变能否换来实际的行动。

Skeptical Congressmen - a pretty wordy bunch themselves - might ask the same of the legions of executives, regulators and bankers falling over themselves to prove that they have learned their lessons from this credit crisis. But while these supplicants may have learned their lessons about how to put on a great show of acting like a penitent, it isn't clear that real penitence - or real change - is yet the order of the day.

比如福特汽车(Ford Motor)的首席执行长艾伦?穆拉利(Alan Mulally)，他夸下海口称将尽力说服国会批准联邦政府的90亿美元信贷安排。穆拉利做出的姿态包括作秀般地从底特律驾车到华盛顿（这次没有乘坐私人飞机）、把年薪降至1美元和承诺支出140亿美元生产更省油的汽车。

Consider Ford Motor (F) Chief Executive Alan Mulally, who promised the moon to try and persuade Congress to hand over the keys to a $9 billion credit line from the federal government. Mulally's bargain included ostentatiously driving to Washington from Detroit (forsaking the private jet, this time), taking a $1 salary and promising to spend $14 billion building more fuel-efficient vehicles.

其中最令人吃惊的事情是，承诺中还包括考虑出售旗下的沃尔沃 (Volvo)品牌。之所以令人吃惊是因为早就有传言称福特汽车在近18个月前就一直在寻找沃尔沃的买家。任何机灵一点的买家最迟在去年7月份应该就知道了这个消息。福特汽车有关正考虑出售这项业务的正式声明对沃尔沃的销售前景没有任何改变，唯一有可能改变的事实只是潜在买家现在清楚福特汽车承认陷入了困境，因此愿意支付的价格可能就会低于1年前了。

It also included, most startling of all, a promise to explore a sale of its Volvo brand. Startling, that is, because Ford has been widely rumored to have been looking for a buyer for Volvo for nearly 18 months. Any astute purchaser would have known as of last July to make an offer. Ford's official announcement that the business is on the block changes nothing about Volvo's sales prospects except perhaps the fact that potential buyers now know that Ford is officially in distress and probably willing to take a lower price than they would have a year ago.

与此同时，汽车三巨头的管理人员承诺将在3周内提出让各自公司恢复活力的计划。此前国会在一轮令人窒息的听证会上彻底拒绝了这些汽车公司原来的恳请。但3年前、5年前甚至16年前，当这些公司臃肿的商务模式已为许多分析师所清楚地看到时，三巨头都没能拿出这样一个计划，现在他们就能够拿出吗？

Meantime, the Big Three executives have promised to come up with viable turnaround plans for their companies in three weeks, after Congress roundly rejected their previous pleas after a disastrous round of hearings. But can car makers come up with such plans when they didn't come up with one three years ago, or five years ago, or 16 years ago, when the problems with their bloated business models were clear to many analysts?

在库伯勒?罗斯(Kubler-Ross)著名的“悲伤阶段论”中，这个阶段被称为“讨价还价期”，也是徒劳无用的时期。最终，寻找和提交救助方案的人将需要超越夸夸其谈，采取具体行动。但首先，他们必须接受目前糟糕的现实，承认以前错失了许多可以改变命运的机会。

In the famous Kubler-Ross stages of grief, this is what is known as bargaining, and it is futile. Eventually, the people looking for - and handing out - bailouts will have to move beyond words and take action. But first, they must accept how bad the situation is and acknowledge the many previous chances they had to change things.

Heidi N. Moore

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20081203/ffe143457.asp

底特律三巨头寻求340亿美元救助资金

Big 3 Auto Makers Seek $34 Billion Bailout

通用汽车(General Motors)、克莱斯勒(Chrysler LLC)和福特汽车(Ford Motor)周二向国会提交了扭亏为盈计划，这些计划显示除非通用汽车和克莱斯勒能从政府获得数十亿美元紧急贷款，否则两公司可能支撑不到本月底。

Detroit's Big Three auto makers presented turnaround plans to Congress on Tuesday that indicate both General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC could collapse by the end of the month unless they get billions of dollars in emergency loans from the government.

通用汽车在要求政府救助的最新申请中表示，该公司需要立即获得40亿美元注资才能将业务维持到年底，这一点它此前并未披露。通用汽车表示它总共需要180亿美元贷款，比它两周前所说的多出了60亿美元。

As part of a renewed bid to win backing for a government bailout, GM said it needs an immediate injection of $4 billion to stay afloat until the end of the year, a fact it hadn't before disclosed. In total, the company said it needs $18 billion in loans -- $6 billion more than it said it would need just two weeks ago.

克莱斯勒在其向国会的陈词中要求获得70亿美元贷款，并表示这笔钱需要在12月31日前到位。该公司还想从能源部的一个项目中获得60亿美元资金，以生产燃油利用率更高的汽车。福特汽车希望政府向其提供90亿美元信贷额度，不过表示可能无需动用这笔资金。福特汽车也想从能源部的上述项目获得50亿美元资金。

Chrysler's 14-page summary of its presentation to Congress requests $7 billion, and it said it needs the funds by Dec. 31. Chrysler also wants $6 billion from a Department of Energy program to produce fuel-efficient vehicles. Ford Motor Co. seeks a $9 billion line of credit from the government, though it adds it may not need to tap it. In addition, Ford wants $5 billion from the Energy Department program.

三大汽车公司都表示它们将合并现有业务，加速节油型汽车的生产。通用和福特计划削减自己的品牌数量。

All three makers said they will consolidate operations and accelerate production of higher-mileage vehicles. GM and Ford plan to trim their brands.

据知情人士说，就在这些汽车公司紧急呼救之际，国会议员们已开始向华尔街专家们求助，要他们代为探讨政府如何能在三大汽车公司预先完成大部分融资工作并与债权人制订出其他重组措施的基础上，帮助这些公司迅速享受和脱离破产保护。

The urgent call for help comes as lawmakers have begun reaching out to Wall Street experts to explore how the government could help the companies prepare bankruptcy filings that would take them in and out of Chapter 11 protection quickly, with much of the financing and other restructuring measures worked out with creditors in advance, people familiar with the matter said.

这些人士说，过去几天中，国会的代表已经与银行家和破产专家们会面，讨论了对通用汽车或克莱斯勒实施所谓预先破产的可能性。

In the past several days, congressional representatives have met with bankers and bankruptcy experts to discuss the possibility of a so-called prearranged bankruptcy for either GM or Chrysler, these people said.

这些人表示，讨论中形成的一个想法是，美国政府最多拿出400亿美元来为通用汽车和克莱斯勒的破产重组提供资金。

One idea that emerged from the talks would have the U.S. government put up as much as $40 billion to fund reorganizations under bankruptcy for GM and Chrysler, these people said.

两家公司都表示它们不认为破产是汽车生产商的一项可行选择。它们相信顾客将停止从破产企业购买汽车，而这将迫使这些企业进行清算。

Both companies have said they don't see bankruptcy as a viable option for any auto maker. They believe customers would stop buying cars and the company would be forced to liquidate.

但银行家和其他金融专家对国会议员们说，要想使美国的汽车公司瘦身并生存下去，破产是最佳选择。

But bankers and other financial experts are telling lawmakers that bankruptcy is the best option for creating smaller but viable U.S. car companies.

纽约投行Miller Buckfire & Co.的董事总经理萨维尼(Durc Savini)认为，通用汽车非常适于重组。他说自己最近与三位众、参议员的助手们举行了会谈，探讨了对三大汽车公司中的一家或全部实施破产的事宜。

'I think GM is eminently re-organizable,' said Durc Savini, managing director at Miller Buckfire & Co., a New York investment banking firm that advised on the bankruptcies at auto suppliers Dana Corp. and Dura Automotive Inc. He said he recently talked with staffers for three House and Senate members to discuss a bankruptcy at one or all of the Detroit makers.

萨维尼说，他对这些议员助手们说，破产重组要想获得成功，可能需要政府注入资金，而汽车厂工人、汽车经销商、汽车公司管理层以及这些公司的债务持有人也需要做出让步。通用汽车总裁亨德森(Frederick 'Fritz' Henderson)在与记者举行的电话会议上表示，该公司没有考虑破产，正集中精力从华盛顿获取救助。他说，公司没有B计划。

Mr. Savini said he told the staffers a bankruptcy could work, but would likely require government money and concessions from workers, vendors, management and debtholders. In a conference call with reporters, GM President Frederick 'Fritz' Henderson said bankruptcy is not a viable option and the company is focusing solely on securing help from Washington. 'There is not a Plan B,' he said.

全美汽车工人联合会(UAW)则表示了不同的看法。据知情人士说，UAW的高层人士周二在一个会议上对工人代表们说，如果通用汽车未来几天得不到政府资助，它有可能在圣诞节前申请破产保护。

The United Auto Workers union is expressing a different view. At a meeting Tuesday in Detroit, top UAW officials told worker representatives that GM could be forced into a Chapter 11 filing before Christmas if the company fails to get government funding in coming days, people familiar with the matter said.

就在通用汽车、福特汽车和克莱斯勒提交救助申请的细节之际，汽车业又传出了另一波不利消息：Autodata Inc.的数据显示，美国11月份的新车销售量下降了37%，降至746,789辆。这是几十年来美国的汽车月销量首次低于80万辆。

GM, Ford and Chrysler presented their requests for help as they were hit by another batch of bad news. U.S. new-vehicle sales fell 37% in November to 746,789 cars and light trucks, according to Autodata Inc. It was the first time in decades that monthly sales fell below the 800,000 mark. The closely watched seasonally adjusted annualized sales rate was 10.18 million vehicles, a worse-than-expected drop from October's 10.8 million

汽车制造商估计美国11月份新车销量下滑了大约35%。11月经季节因素调整后折合成年率的销量(SAAR)为1,050万辆，低于10月份的1,080万辆。

通用汽车的销量下滑41%，至154,877辆；福特汽车的销量下滑30.6%，至123,222辆。丰田汽车(Toyota Motor)的销量下滑34%，至130,307辆；本田汽车(Honda Motor)销量下滑31.6%，至76,233辆。

GM's sales fell 41%, Ford's 30% and Chrysler's 47%. Foreign auto makers were hit hard, too. Toyota Motor Corp.'s U.S. sales fell 34% and Honda Motor Co.'s 31%.

美国三大汽车公司上个月请求国会给予其250亿美元的低息贷款，以帮助它们度过这段美国经济的低迷期以及汽车行业几十年来最萧条的阶段。但国会议员们却不能确信底特律三大汽车公司已经有了清晰的扭亏为盈计划，因此告知它们12月2日重返国会听证会时要作更详细的陈述，说明自己打算怎样使用纳税人给予的救助资金，以及打算如何进行重组以使自己能够生存下去。

The Big Three last month appealed to Congress for $25 billion in low-cost loans to carry them through the downturn in the economy and one of the worst auto sales slumps in decades. But lawmakers were unconvinced that the three Detroit makers had clear restructuring plans to return to profitability and told them to come back by Dec. 2 with more details on how they would use taxpayer funds to 'become viable.'

美国众议院议长佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)说，虽然她希望帮助美国汽车工业，但也暗示说能否帮得成主要取决于对三大汽车公司扭亏计划的评估结果。她说，我们想看到一个对未来的承诺，我们希望看到这些公司改变态度，制定出新的业务模式和新的业务计划。

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) said she hoped to help the industry, but suggested much will depend on the assessments made of the industry plans. 'We want to see a commitment to the future,' she said. 'We want to see a restructuring of their approach, that they have a new business model, a new business plan.'

佩洛西说，破产并不是陷入困境汽车制造商的好出路，因为破产重组需要的时间太长。她这一表态可能给美国三大汽车公司带来了希望。参议院多数党领袖里德 (Harry Reid)说，如果民主党人决定推动政府救助美国汽车工业，相关法案最快可能在下周一提出。福特汽车公司在其33页的情况介绍中说，虽然它并不急需联邦救助资金，但希望获得90亿美元的信贷额度，以备本轮衰退如果比预期的更长、程度更深时应急之用。该公司预计自己会在2011年前扭亏为盈，并表示自己将加速开发新型混合动力和电池驱动汽车，减少汽车经销商的数量，并重新调整工厂的设备，以便在美国生产目前能够盈利的小型轿车。

In what could be a boost to Detroit's hopes, Ms. Pelosi said bankruptcy isn't an option for the companies because the reorganization would take too long. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) said that if Democrats decided to proceed with a bailout, legislation could come as soon as Monday. In its 33-page presentation, Ford said it doesn't need federal funds immediately but asked for the $9 billion credit line in case the recession is longer and deeper than expected. It estimated it will break even or return to profitability by 2011 and added it would accelerate the development of hybrid and battery-powered vehicles, cut the number of dealers selling its products, and retool plants to make small cars in the U.S. it can sell profitably.

福特汽车公司首席执行长穆拉利(Alan Mulally)在乘坐福特Escape混合动力车前往华盛顿途中接受采访时暗示，UAW可能也需要做出让步，以帮助美国三大汽车公司恢复生机，并让国会相信值得对这些公司施以援手。他说，为使美国本土的汽车工业保持竞争力，UAW会员当前所签劳动合同的所有内容都应该重新评估。

In a phone interview while riding in a Ford Escape hybrid to Washington, where the chief executives of the three Detroit makers will testify starting Thursday, Ford CEO Alan Mulally suggested the UAW may have to make concessions to help the companies recover and persuade Congress to approve aid. 'All of the elements' of the UAW labor contract should be re-examined to keep the U.S. auto industry competitive, he said.

福特汽车的状况大体上强于通用汽车，因为该公司在2006年将自己几乎所有的资产都抵押了出去，因此早在信贷市场收紧之前就筹集了180亿美元资金。

Ford appears to be in better shape than GM and Chrysler in large part because it mortgaged almost all of its assets in 2006, a move that raised $24.5 billion long before credit markets tightened.

由私人资本运营公司Cerberus Capital Management LP控股的克莱斯勒在提交给国会的文件中说，预计到年底时其手中的现金将只有25亿美元，并说在明年1月1日至3月31日期间，它在购买零部件、支付工资和其他成本方面的支出将达116亿美元。该公司希望获得70亿美元过渡性贷款，以确保公司能够具有长期生存能力。

In the document it submitted to Congress, Chrysler, controlled by private-equity firm Cerberus Capital Management LP, said it is on track to end the year with just $2.5 billion in cash on hand, and said it is due to pay out $11.6 billion for parts, wages, and other costs between Jan. 1 and March 31 next year. It seeks a 'bridge loan' of $7 billion to 'ensure the long-term viability of the company.'

通用汽车总裁亨德森在周二的电话会议上说，该公司正在寻求获得120亿美元贷款外加60亿美元信贷额度。

In GM's conference call Tuesday, Mr. Henderson said GM is seeking $12 billion in loans and an additional credit line of $6 billion.

作为回报，通用汽车愿意给予纳税人购买该公司股票的认股权证，让纳税人在该公司债权人排序中处于优先位置，并承诺会在2012年左右向纳税人偿还贷款。他表示，通用汽车相信自己的北美业务能在2012年前达到盈亏平衡。

In return, GM would be open to giving taxpayers warrants for company stock, a senior position among its creditors, and a promise to pay the money back around 2012. Mr. Henderson said GM believes its North American operations can break even by that year.

通用汽车计划从本周开始与持有其债券的人和UAW展开谈判，以图将自己的债务负担削减300亿美元，即一半左右。它提出的建议将包括允许其债券的投资者将债券转换为该公司股票，并重组该公司欠UAW一个医疗保健信托基金的债务，该基金按计划将从2010年起向通用汽车的退休员工支付福利金。

GM plans to begin discussions this week with bondholders and the UAW in an attempt to cut its debt by $30 billion, or by about half. It will ask investors to swap debt for equity, and aim to restructure GM's obligations to a UAW health-care trust set to begin paying retiree benefits in 2010.

亨德森承认，这一重组公司资产负债表的努力实际上就是一次法庭外破产重组。通用汽车对国会表示，为了实现业务瘦身，该公司计划出售其萨博(SAAB)分部，有可能将其Saturn品牌出售或合并，并将其车型从目前的60种缩减为40种。

The attempt to revamp GM's balance sheet is essentially an out-of-court bankruptcy reorganization, Mr. Henderson conceded. To slim down its operations, GM told Congress it is looking at selling its Saab division, could also sell its Saturn brand, and may trim its vehicle lineup to about 40 models from 60.

CSM Worldwide的汽车业分析师华尔(Mike Wall)说，尽管通用汽车急需资金，但这家世界最大汽车生产商仍然是一个有生存能力的公司。他说，该公司确实有良好的全球业务，能够源源不断地推出新产品，并且不断有新技术推向市场。

Mike Wall, an auto industry analyst at CSM Worldwide, said that despite the apparent dire need for cash at GM, the world's largest auto maker remains a viable concern. 'They do have a good global operation. They have a pipeline for new product that's coming out. They have new technologies coming to the market,' Mr. Wall said of GM.

John D. Stoll / Matthew Dolan / Jeffrey McCracken / Josh Mitchell

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20081203/ffe120808.asp

看国会如何扼杀底特律

How Congress Will Kill Detroit

如果底特律汽车三巨头听从众议院议长佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)和参议院多数党领袖里德(Harry Reid)的指示，他们将在周二公布“让行业恢复活力”的“令人信服”的计划。

If the Big Three automakers follow the instructions of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, they will unveil on Tuesday 'credible' plans that 'result in a viable industry.'

但实际上三巨头向国会提交任何“令人信服”的计划的可能性微乎其微。要让底特律浴火重生，就必需一场激烈、严苛的改革，而无论是底特律还是华盛顿实际上都对此没有兴趣。

But there is actually little chance of the Big Three presenting Congress with any 'credible' plans. A reborn Detroit requires a radical, harsh restructuring for which neither Detroit nor Washington really has the appetite.

过去几个月里的慷慨陈词都是围绕着保护工人和振兴美国汽车业的主题展开的。

The fevered rhetoric of the past few months has been all about protecting workers and resurrecting the American car industry.

但令人悲哀的现实是，要想建立充满活力的汽车业，就要解雇工人和关闭过剩产能。

But the sad reality of creating a viable industry is all about firing workers and shutting down excess capacity.

这是底特律和华盛顿都不想面对的现实。但他们迟早都要面对。

It's a truth that neither Detroit nor Washington want to face. But they'll have to - either sooner or later.

为了获得联邦救助资金中的第一笔250亿美元的拨款，底特律汽车巨头需要有关其未来的令人信服的方案。

To get this initial tranche of $25 billion in federal bailout funds, Detroit is supposed to present a convincing case for its future.

但如果这个方案需要削减数以万计的工作岗位，关闭工厂、撕毁同全美汽车工人联合会(UAW)的协议，以及推迟国会设定的汽车燃油标准呢？

But what if that case entails chopping tens of thousands of jobs, closing factories, reneging on agreements with the UAW as well as pushing back on car-mileage standards set by Congress?

国会对这样一个救助方案会做何感想？

How would Congress feel about such a bailout?

以通用汽车(General Motors)为例。对该公司唯一可行的商业计划是大刀阔斧地重组。这也是德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)汽车业分析师罗德?拉奇(Rod Lache)预想的结果。

Take General Motors. The only business plan that makes any sense for GM is a fast, brutal restructuring. It's the kind of thing envisioned by Deutsche Bank auto analyst Rod Lache.

拉奇预计，到2010年时，通用汽车的品牌将从8个减少到4个。至少有5家大型组装厂将会关闭。通用汽车12万临时和全职工人中还要有三分之一将失去工作。

By 2010, Lache sees GM brands shrinking from eight to four. At least five major assembly plants would be closed. A further third of GM's hourly and salaried workforce of 120,000 would be let go.

通用汽车的国内市场份额将从22%降至17%。随着超过400亿美元的无担保债券将转换为股票，通用汽车的资产还将缩水。

GM's domestic market share would drop from 22% to 17%. And the GM balance sheet would be downsized as over $40 billion in unsecured debt would be converted into equity.

那时，也只有到那时，通用汽车才会有竞争力并获利。或许吧。

Then - and only then - could GM compete and make profits. Maybe.

这应该是适合通用汽车的可行的计划。但通用汽车周二向国会提交这样一份计划的可能性有多大呢？

That's what a viable plan for GM might look like. But what are the odds of GM delivering a plan like that to Congress tomorrow?

如果它这样做，全美汽车工人联合会或华盛顿的政治家赞成这项计划的可能性有多大？几乎是零。

And if it did, what are the odds of the UAW or Washington politicians giving their blessing? Pretty close to zero.

看看通用汽车的6,600家经销商网络吧。这相当于每个国会选区平均有15家经销商。但据美林(Merrill Lynch)称，通用汽车应该只保留2,000家经销商。

Look at GM's 6,600 strong dealer network. That works out to an average of 15 dealers in each Congressional district. But, according to Merrill Lynch, GM should have only 2,000 dealers.

这意味着，平均每位国会议员的选区中将有11家经销商和总计500个职位消失。

For the average Congressman that means his district alone would see the disappearance of some 11 dealerships - and 500 total jobs.

三巨头在起草重组计划时可能会行动迟缓，这并不奇怪。他们意识到，要分得一杯羹，头等大事是让国会满意。而让国会满意意味着保住岗位，而不是裁员。

Little wonder that the Big Three will probably 'go slow' in drawing up their restructuring plans. They realize that the number one priority in getting handouts is making Congress happy. And making Congress happy means preserving jobs, not cutting them.

所有这些都是本周将不可避免地产生经典的华盛顿妥协的原因。

All of this is why, this week will inevitably produce a classic Washington compromise.

由于三巨头的CEO在公司专机和过于慷慨的CEO薪酬等基本不相干的问题上受到指责，可以料到，各方都将有一番慷慨陈词。

There will be the predictable grandstanding as the Big Three CEOs are lectured on the largely irrelevant evils of corporate jets and 'lavish' CEO pay.

有关底特律汽车公司的商业计划以及其是否“令人信服”，可能还会爆发一些表面上的争论。

And there will probably be some lively pro-forma debate on Detroit's business plans and whether they're 'credible' or not.

但经过来来往往的多个回合后，三巨头的商业计划将被断定“足以令人信服”，从而获得250亿美元。

But after some to-ing and fro-ing, the Big Three's business plans will be deemed 'credible enough' to get the $25 billion.

然后这个烂摊子就会交给1月下旬上任的奥巴马总统和新一届美国国会。

And then the whole mess will be kicked to President Obama and the new Congress come late January.

到那时，经济和底特律的情况可能会变得非常糟糕，以至于华盛顿决定不再把钱投到无底洞中。然后三巨头或许将不可避免地走向破产之路。

By then, things may be so desperate in the economy and Detroit that even Washington will stop throwing good money after bad. Then maybe the bankruptcy of the Big Three could take its inevitable course.

Evan Newmark

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20081203/mst113559.asp

为救公司福特老板愿拿一美元年薪

美国福特汽车公司的总裁兼首席执行官艾伦·穆拉利说，为帮助公司度过经济难关，他愿拿一美元的年薪。

穆拉利在周二（2日）表示，如果他的公司必须利用美国政府的贷款度过金融危机的话，他愿意把自己的年薪降到一美元。

他说，福特公司将向美国国会寻求90亿美元的资金，以帮助公司在2011年重新盈利。

为此，福特公司计划取消所有管理人员的2009年奖金。

作为削减开支计划的一部分，公司还将变卖它的五架专机。

此外，福特公司也会考虑卖掉它旗下的瑞典沃尔沃汽车公司。

除了福特公司以外，美国的另外两大汽车制造商通用汽车公司和克莱斯勒公司也将向国会拿出新的削减开支方案，以期获得总值为250亿美元的紧急政府贷款。

随着美国经济放缓的加剧，福特和通用汽车公司11月的新车销量大减。

这三家公司的老板将于本周晚些时候重返国会，进行游说。

为了避免批评，他们三人都不会搭乘公司的专机前往。福特和通用汽车的老板已经表示将开自己公司生产的节能型汽车从底特律前往华盛顿。

http://news.bbc.co.uk/chinese/simp/hi/newsid_7760000/newsid_7761900/7761918.stm

欧洲小型车逆市走俏

Small European Cars Shine

全球汽车业一片黯淡中也有一个亮点：欧洲时尚小型车的销量今年一直在节节攀升，包括戴姆勒(Daimler AG)的Smart、菲亚特(Fiat SpA)的500以及宝马汽车(BMW AG)的Mini Cooper。

There's a bright spot amid the global automobile sector's gloom: Sales of small, chic European cars -- Daimler AG's Smart, Fiat SpA's 500, and BMW AG's Mini Cooper -- have grown this year.

这三款车型有着共同的成功特点：时尚的设计、高端的形像以及出色的能耗。这些车型的畅销表明，即便在不利的经济形势下，消费者仍然会受到吸引购买那些设计与众不同、足以体现购买者独特生活方式的汽车。

The three have common traits that likely are sparking their success: trendy design, a high-end image and fuel efficiency. The cars' popularity shows how, even in a tough economic climate, consumers still can be enticed to buy cars that are perceived as special enough to make a lifestyle statement about their owners.

花旗集团(Citigroup)驻伦敦汽车分析师劳森(John Lawson)表示，这些汽车有着巨大的情感魅力。但作为汽车产品，它们又以节能省油和设计新颍打动了消费者，因此才获得了出色的销量。

'These cars have enormous emotional appeal,' says John Lawson, a Citigroup automobile analyst in London. 'But as products, they also hit consumers' priorities on fuel economy and style on the head, so they are selling well.'

当然，某些车型的畅销并不能拯救汽车行业的低迷状态。由于全球经济衰退阴影迫近导致消费者推迟购买高价商品，汽车销量自8月份以来已经大幅下挫。信贷紧缩也使得很多消费者更难获得贷款买车。为了应对不利状况，许多汽车制造商都暂时关闭旗下工厂，保证汽车供应与需求一致。法国雷诺(Renault SA)、德国大众汽车(Volkswagen AG)、美国通用汽车(General Motors Corp.)和福特汽车(Ford Motor Co.)等公司都在游说政府提供救助，帮助他们渡过金融危机。

To be sure, sales of niche models won't save the ailing automobile sector. Car sales have plummeted since August as consumers spooked by a looming global recession delay spending on big-ticket items. The credit crunch also has made it harder for some people to secure loans to buy cars. To cope, many car makers are closing factories temporarily to keep vehicle supply in line with demand. Companies such as France's Renault SA, Germany's Volkswagen AG and General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. in the U.S. are lobbying for government aid to help them weather the financial crisis.

但目前为止，欧洲三大知名小型车却在低迷环境下表现出色。一些分析师表示，这些车型的成功可作为汽车行业长期的借鉴经验。市场研究公司Global Insight的汽车分析师考奇曼(Colin Couchman)表示，如果你生产的汽车设计漂亮、能够保值并给使用者日常驾驶带来诸多愉悦，那么人们就会购买。他说，做到这点并不容易，但一些欧洲汽车制造商正在朝这个方向努力。

For now, though, Europe's three best-known small cars are riding out the downturn well. And some analysts say their success holds long-term lessons for the industry. 'If you make cars that are nice, keep their value over time and give people a good deal of pleasure on a daily basis, people will buy them,' says Colin Couchman, an auto analyst at market-research firm Global Insight. It isn't an easy recipe, he says, 'but some European car makers are getting it right.'

花旗集团预计，今年前10个月全球汽车销量较上年同期下降了3%。但据公司数据显示，戴姆勒Smart汽车全球销量同期增长了47%，至113,200 辆；Mini Cooper全球销量增长了11%，至202,300辆。虽然10月份两款车全球销量有所退步（Smart增长7%，Mini下滑3.4%），但仍然超过了美国市场全部车型销量普遍下滑大约30%的表现。

Citigroup estimates that global car sales for January through October fell 3% from a year earlier. But global sales of Daimler's subcompact Smart car rose 47% to 113,200 vehicles for the period, and sales of the Mini Cooper rose 11% to 202,300, according to the companies. Global sales slacked off a bit in October, rising 7% for the Smart and dropping 3.4% for the Mini, but still outpaced a U.S. market in which all car sales fell around 30%.

德国戴姆勒公司表示，今年有望销售140,000辆Smart汽车。由于体形非常小巧，Smart在许多城市都可以垂直于路肩停放；这款车于1998年在欧洲上市，一开始很难找到自己的市场。但近年来该车经过重新设计降低了售价，销量也明显上升。

Germany's Daimler says it is on track to sell 140,000 Smart cars this year. So diminutive it can be parked facing the curb in many cities, the Smart launched in Europe in 1998 and initially struggled to find its market. But in recent years the car has taken off after a redesign reduced the price.

自从德国宝马近期推出Clubman版Mini后，这一车型的销量大受提振；Clubman版Mini比标准版Mini更宽敞，拥有较大的后备箱。根据环境保护署(Environmental Protection Agency)的数据，标准Mini Cooper在城市每加仑汽油可跑28英里，在高速公路上每加仑可跑37英里。相比之下，美国汽车的平均每加仑里程数只有21英里。

Sales of the Mini are getting a boost since Germany's BMW recently introduced a Clubman version, which is roomier than the standard Mini Cooper and has a bigger trunk. The Environmental Protection Agency rates the standard Mini Cooper's mileage at 28 miles per gallon in the city and 37 mpg on the highway. That compares with an average of 21 mpg for all cars in the U.S.

菲亚特表示，新的500车型销量已经达到了153,000辆左右，这款车是上世纪六十年代标志性小车Cinquecento的经典再现。自从2007年7月推出后，这款费里尼(Frederico Fellini)电影《甜蜜生活》(La Dolce Vita)中亮相的经典小车的再版就受到了欧洲各地消费者的热捧。菲亚特的这款车没有在美国市场销售。

Fiat says it sold about 153,000 of its new 500 model, a vintage-looking remake of the iconic 1960s 'Cinquecento.' Since its July 2007 rollout, buyers across Europe have been won over by the grandchild of the car featured in Frederico Fellini's film 'La Dolce Vita.' The Italian auto maker's car isn't sold in the U.S.

尽管三款小型车体形迷你，但售价可不便宜。菲亚特500起价为13,500美元-14,000美元；Mini Cooper起价为18,000美元-20,000美元；而Smart售价在14,000-17,000美元左右。分析师们表示，典型的买家本可以承受更大、动力更强劲的汽车，但他们都选择了这些车型。

Despite their size, the three cars aren't cheap. The Fiat 500 sells for a base price of $13,500-$14,000; the Mini Cooper, for $18,000-$20,000; and the Smart, around $14,000-$17,000. The typical buyer could afford a bigger, more powerful vehicle, but opted for these models, analysts say.

Leila Abboud

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20081202/ffe125021.asp

减产不到位 油价难回升

Oil Prices Meet Headwind

随着需求的下降，世界石油出口大国迫切要求降低产量来提振油价，沙特阿拉伯提出每桶75美元的油价才是现在的“合理价格”。不过，在眼下的经济低迷期，石油输出国组织(OPEC，简称：欧佩克)可能难以让油价保持在任何事先设定的水平。

As the world's big oil exporters struggle to trim production enough to boost prices as demand plummets, Saudi Arabia has contended that $75 now represents a 'fair price' for a barrel of oil. But OPEC may struggle to keep prices at any set level amid the current economic headwinds.

在上周末开罗召开的会议上，欧佩克部长讨论了是否要在12月中旬的阿尔及利亚例会上再度大幅减产。如果兑现，这将成为该组织4个月中的第三次减产。

Meeting in Cairo over the weekend, ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries debated whether to make another deep output cut -- the group's third in four months -- when they meet in formal session in Algeria in mid-December.

欧佩克13个成员国未能完全兑现此前作出的减少出口的承诺，原因是伊朗和委内瑞拉等国试图在大宗商品价格下挫、美国等主要市场需求下滑之际保持源源不断的收入。原油价格如今已经较夏季的高点下挫了逾60%，纽约商交所上周五原油结算价为每桶54.43美元。目前全球石油需求量约为每日8,600万桶，欧佩克满足了其中的四成多。

The cartel's 13 members, which supply more than 40% of daily world oil demand of about 86 million barrels a day, are already falling behind earlier pledges to trim exports as countries such as Iran and Venezuela try to keep revenue flowing amid a crash in commodity prices and demand in key markets like the U.S. The price of crude oil has fallen more than 60% since its summer high, closing Friday at $54.43 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

欧佩克成员国10月份同意将石油日产量降低150万桶，但在具体实施上却一直行动迟缓。该组织秘书长巴德里(Abdalla Salem El-Badri)向记者表示，欧佩克成员国目前为止仅将石油日产量降低了85万-120万桶。

OPEC members have been slow to comply with the production cut of 1.5 million barrels a day agreed to in October. The group's secretary general, Abdalla Salem El-Badri, told reporters that members had so far managed to remove only 850,000 to 1.2 million barrels a day from world oil markets.

欧佩克的缺乏纪律性是导致该组织最大产油国沙特没有在开罗会议上敦促再度减产的原因之一，尽管沙特石油大臣纳依米(Ali Naimi)称油价应该处于比当前价格约高20美元的水平。纳依米的话代表沙特少见地一改以往做法──长久以来沙特一直避免让自己看起来有试图设定油价的嫌疑。沙特国王阿卜杜拉(Abdullah)在上周六接受一家科威特报纸采访时也称油价应该在每桶75美元的水平。

The group's lack of discipline was one reason Saudi Arabia, OPEC's biggest producer, didn't push for another output cut in Cairo, even though the Saudi oil minister, Ali Naimi, argued that oil prices should be around $20 a barrel higher than they are now. Mr. Naimi's remarks represented an unusual departure for Saudi Arabia, which has long avoided the appearance of trying to set the price of oil. Saudi King Abdullah also used the $75-a-barrel price tag in an interview on Saturday with a Kuwaiti newspaper.

其他欧佩克部长也很快对每桶75美元的价格表示支持，他们称当前的油价太低，不足以维持高成本地区所需的投资。

Other OPEC ministers quickly seized on the $75 target, saying that current prices were too low to sustain needed investments in higher-cost areas.

在管理石油供应以将油价保持在既定区间方面，欧佩克的表现乏善可陈。为了保护对所有欧佩克成员国都至关重要的石油收入而阳奉阴违，这在欧佩克48年历史中一直是个核心话题。眼下，跟上需求下滑的步伐可能尤为困难。全球石油需求今年看起来将出现25年来的首次萎缩，2009年预计还会进一步下滑。

OPEC has a spotty record when it comes to managing oil supplies to maintain a set price band. Lack of compliance with production cuts, driven by a jealous protection of oil revenue that are pivotal to all OPEC governments, has been a core theme throughout OPEC's 48-year history. This time around, keeping up with falling demand may prove particularly tough. Global oil demand looks set to contract this year for the first time in 25 years, with more declines expected in 2009.

一位欧佩克代表和一位熟悉沙特石油生产政策的人士均称，沙特在开罗会议上不愿支持再度减产，原因之一是沙特认为欧佩克第二大产油国伊朗以及委内瑞拉为保持自身的石油收入，减产幅度不及它们宣称的那么大。相对其他欧佩克成员国来说，伊朗和委内瑞拉是因每桶50美元的油价而遭受最大冲击的国家，因为其财政预算和支出都依赖于较高的石油价格。

An OPEC delegate and a person familiar with Saudi production policy both said the kingdom's reluctance to back a new output cut in Cairo was driven in part by the Saudis' belief that Iran, OPEC's second-biggest producer, and Venezuela are cutting output by less than they claim in order to preserve their own oil revenue. Both nations stand to suffer the most from sustained $50 oil prices relative to other OPEC members, as their budgets and spending are based on higher oil prices.

如以前曾经发生的几次一样，欧佩克目前正呼吁非欧佩克石油出口大国帮助降低供应量，以便遏制油价的暴跌。俄罗斯已经表示希望帮助欧佩克支撑油价，不过随着该国石油生产持续下滑，其石油产量已经处于重压之下。墨西哥和挪威等其他非欧佩克石油出口大国看起来也不太可能在眼下石油收入下滑之际限制出口。墨西哥的产量因该国最大油田Cantarell的减产而下滑。

As it has several times in the past, OPEC is now calling on other big exporters outside the cartel to help curtail supply to stem the crash in prices. Russia has suggested it wants to help OPEC buttress prices, but its output is already under strain as Russian production continues to fall. The other big non-OPEC exporters, Mexico and Norway, also seem unlikely to rein in exports at a time of dropping oil revenue. Mexico's production is falling on a decline in its biggest field, Cantarell.

在这样的背景之下，欧佩克将于12月17日在阿尔及利亚港口城市奥兰召开例会，此次会议可能成为该组织多年来关系最重大的会议。沙特将仔细寻找其他欧佩克成员国遵循此前减产协议的迹象。

All this sets the stage for OPEC's next formal session on Dec. 17 in the Algerian port city of Oran, in what could be the group's most momentous meeting in years. Saudi Arabia will be looking most intently for signs that other OPEC members are complying with earlier agreements to trim supply.

不过，同样重要的还有预示2009年将至时世界经济低迷程度的一系列数据。欧佩克9月和10月已经同意将日产量降低200万桶，但如果美国、欧洲和亚洲国家的需求继续走软的话，未来几个月中欧佩克可能需要更大幅度的减产。

But just as important will be the latest raft of data on how sick the world's economy looks going into 2009. Having agreed to trim two million barrels a day at its last two sessions in September and October, OPEC may need to cut back far more deeply in the months ahead if demand in the U.S., Europe and Asia continues to weaken.

Spencer Swartz / Neil King Jr.

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20081201/bas115018.asp