GMAC面临新难题

GMAC's Other Headache

2008年06月26日17:02

汽车贷款业务曾经是通用汽车金融服务公司(General Motors Acceptance Corporation, 简称GMAC)的一个亮点。现在，这块业务也黯然失色了。

The one bright spot for GMAC used to be its auto-loan business. Now, that, too, is dimming.

这家贷款机构的房屋贷款部门状况不佳，存在着抵押贷款壤帐等种种问题，而现在又面临极度耗油的敞蓬小货车和运动型多用途汽车(SUV)价格下跌的危机，真是雪上加霜。

Declining values of gasoline-guzzling pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles are looming over the lender, adding to its existing problems with souring mortgages through its ailing home-loan unit. This leaves GMAC in worse shape than rival Ford Motor Credit.

GMAC也不太可能指望通用汽车公司(GM)帮忙。这家汽车生产商正疲于应对敞蓬小货车和SUV销量急剧下滑的状况，已于周一宣布减产。2006年，以私人资本运营集团Cerberus Capital Management LP为首的一个财团以140亿美元收购了GMAC 51%的股份，此后通用汽车拥有GMAC 49%的股份。Cerberus Capital Management LP是克莱斯勒(Chrysler LLC)的母公司。

And it is unlikely GMAC can look to General Motors Corp. for help. The auto maker, struggling to cope with a steep decline in sales of pickups and SUVs, announced production cuts Monday. The company has a 49% stake in GMAC after a consortium led by private-equity group Cerberus Capital Management LP, parent of Chrysler LLC, bought 51% of GMAC in 2006 for about $14 billion.

为了向购买通用汽车的人提供资金而于1919年建立的GMAC去年在新车及二手车贷款业务中收入508亿美元。这家曾在经济低迷时期以稳定的利润支撑了GM的贷款机构向陷入困境的抵押贷款子公司Residential Capital LLC注入数十亿美元，由此大伤元气。GMAC宣布今年第一季度净亏损5.89亿美元，而上年同期亏损3.05亿美元。

GMAC, set up in 1919 to provide financing to buyers of GM vehicles, made $50.8 billion in loans for new and used vehicles last year. The lender, which once propped up GM with steady profit during economic downturns, has been weakened by the billions of dollars it pumped into its struggling mortgage subsidiary, Residential Capital LLC. GMAC posted a net loss of $589 million in the first quarter, compared with a loss of $305 million a year earlier.

除此之外，时值汽油价格高达每加仑4美元之际，在GM的产品线中占据可观比例的敞蓬小货车和SUV需求不断下跌也会进一步给GMAC带来损失。二手车市场上的高油耗汽车价格已经剧跌。随着租约到期以及从无力继续偿还车贷的车主手中收回车辆，GMAC积压了大量高油耗汽车。

In addition, falling demand for pickup trucks and SUVs, which make up a sizable chunk of GM's production mix, amid $4-a-gallon gasoline, should further hurt GMAC. The value of gas guzzlers has dropped sharply in the used-car market. GMAC is saddled with inventories of thousands of these vehicles as they come off leases or are repossessed from owners unable to keep up with payments.

通常情况下，GMAC会在租赁期满时收回车辆，并根据估计的价格将这些车辆打折出售给经销商。据二手车批发拍卖公司Manheim的数据，今年5月，货车和SUV的拍卖价格比上年同期下跌了逾20%。

Typically, GMAC takes back vehicles at the end of leases and sells them to dealers at discounted prices based on estimated values. On average, auction prices on trucks and SUVs fell by more than 20% in May compared with year-earlier prices, according to data from Manheim, a wholesale auction company for used cars.

GMAC的发言人说：“GMAC密切关注着市场状况。”

'GMAC is monitoring the market conditions closely,' a GMAC spokeswoman says.

Cerberus的一位代表说，GMAC的管理层正在努力改善公司的资产负债状况，走出现在这种空前的经济困境，让公司将来能占据更好的地位。

A representative of Cerberus said GMAC's management is 'working hard to strengthen the balance sheet and emerge from this unprecedented economic environment better positioned for the future.'

随着货车和SUV车主所欠车款超出车辆的实际价值，GMAC还面临着贷款拖欠率日渐上升、车辆收回的数量越来越多的问题。

GMAC also faces rising delinquencies in loan payments and increasing numbers of repossessions as owners of pickups and SUVs owe more on the vehicles than they are worth.

另一重忧虑是GMAC居高不下的资产负债比率。据穆迪投资者服务公司(Moody's Investors Service)计算，GMAC的借款为其净值的23倍。而竞争对手Ford Credit的借款为其净值的11倍。

Another worry is GMAC's high level of borrowings compared with its equity cushion. One measure of GMAC's leverage ratio, as calculated by Moody's Investors Service, shows that the company has 23 times its net worth in borrowings. Ford Credit has 11 times its net worth.

穆迪的债务分析师马克?威斯登(Mark Wasden)说，GMAC的杠杆规模太大，这对它的信贷状况有负面影响。

GMAC's leverage 'is an aggressive measure and has negatively impacted GMAC's credit standing,' says Mark Wasden, a debt analyst at Moody's.

GMAC手头拥有充足的现金结余：148.4亿美元，但幅度超出预期的剩余价值下滑意味着GMAC无法在这次经济低迷期充当勇救GM的白马王子。

GMAC has a hefty cash balance of $14.84 billion on hand, but steeper-than-expected declines in residual values mean GMAC won't ride to GM's rescue during this downturn.

历史教训：巴克莱堪比花旗？

History Lesson: Barclays Like Citi?

巴克莱集团(Barclays PLC)的处境有点像1991年的花旗集团(Citigroup)，当时一位沙特王子和一名私人银行客户注资挽救了这家美国银行。

Barclays PLC's situation looks a bit like that of Citigroup in 1991, when a Saudi prince and a private-banking client put in capital to rescue the U.S. bank.

巴克莱的股东需要确保他们的银行不会重复花旗后来犯下的错误。

Barclays's shareholders need reassuring that their bank won't repeat Citigroup's subsequent mistakes.

巴克莱将筹资45亿英镑（合88.6亿美元）以充实资本金，其中很大一部分来自卡塔尔投资局(Qatar Investment Authority)。问题在于，巴克莱会拿这笔钱做什么。

Barclays is raising GBP 4.5 billion ($8.86 billion) to shore up its core equity ratios, with a large chunk coming from Qatar Investment Authority, among others. The question is what will Barclays do with the new money.

此次增资后，巴克莱的一级资本充足率将提高到8.8%，而从它对这桩交易的评价看，它从配置资金上获得的收益将超出整个集团10.5%的资金成本。它还将在美国资本市场及英国抵押贷款市场等重要领域赢得市场份额。

Its Tier 1 capital rises to 8.8%, and judging by its comments on current trading, it is able to generate returns on deployed capital more than its 10.5% cost of capital throughout the group. It also is gaining market share in some key areas, such as U.S. capital markets and U.K. mortgages.

花旗的教训值得回顾。在获救之后，利润有所回升，花旗展开了毫无节制的收购行动。不久，花旗就失去了理智，将宝贵的资产随意乱投，而不考虑长期的回报。

Citigroup's experience is worth recalling. After the rescue, profits returned and Citi went on a buying spree. Soon after, the bank lost the plot, with precious equity thrown around without much respect for long-term returns.

有人认为花旗是为了达到某些华尔街人士不现实的短期预期而陷入困境的，对于同意这一看法的人而言，巴克莱首席执行长约翰?瓦利(John Varley)要汲取的教训就是避免同样的压力。

For those sympathetic with the view that Citigroup was undone by trying to meet the unrealistic short-term expectations of some on Wall Street, the lesson for Barclays Chief Executive John Varley is to avoid the same pressure.

令投资者感到安慰的是，瓦利成功避免了他许多同侪所遭遇的次债过高问题。而瓦利及巴克莱其他一些管理者周三暗示说巴克莱在考虑并购事宜，这又让投资者惴惴不安。

Comforting for investors is Mr. Varley's success in skirting the worst subprime-related excesses of many of his contemporaries. Less so is the fact that Mr. Varley and his colleagues indicated Wednesday that Barclays has acquisitions in mind.

巴克莱必须重点关注新股东的潜力，而非进行什么交易。利用新股东的销售能力、推销定制金融产品应该是优先考虑的事情。

Rather than deal making, Barclays must focus on the potential of its new investors. Harnessing their distribution capabilities and pushing tailored financial products should be a priority.

Aparajita Saha-Bubna

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080626/hrd171002.asp

美航新规或引发行李箱之争

A Battle Looms For Airlines' Overhead Bins

2008年06月26日13:48

有关随身携带行李的新政策马上就要在美国各大机场付诸实施了。

The carry-on-baggage police will soon be out in force at airports.

美利坚航空(American Airlines)，联合航空(United Airlines)和US Airways准备对所有托运行李进行收费，其中第一件行李往返收费30美元，第二件行李收费50美元，同时他们还准备严格实施目前普遍受到漠视的对随身携带行李的限制，以将航班延误和登机干扰减至最低水平。航空公司与乘客之间的斗争还将继续，乘客将面临行李新规的烦扰，给他们本来就劳累的旅途增添更多不快。

As American, United and US Airways prepare to start collecting fees on every piece of checked luggage, including $30 round trip to check one bag and an additional $50 round trip to check a second, they are also getting ready to strictly enforce limits on carry-on baggage -- which are commonly flouted -- in hopes of minimizing delays and disruption as flights board. Battles with customers likely will ensue, and fliers will be peppered with baggage-rule announcements, adding more aggravation to the already trying travel experience.

AMR Corp.旗下的美利坚航空和UAL Corp.旗下的联合航空将在机场安检入口处安排员工或者雇佣合同工，负责阻挡违反有关随身携带行李规定的乘客。根据新规定，每位乘客只能携带一件能放进头顶行李箱中的箱包，以及一件诸如手袋或者公文包之类的“个人物品”。这可能会减慢乘客通过安检的速度，而在机场办理登机手续柜台收取额外费用可能会延长乘客等待的时间。登机的速度可能也会放慢，为了避免收费，乘客通常会增加手提行李的容量，提前抵达登机口，以便找到足够的摆放行李的空间，航空公司无疑将面临更大的压力。

AMR Corp.'s American and UAL Corp.'s United will station airline employees or hired contract workers at entrances to security screening lanes to intercept customers exceeding the carry-on limit of one bag small enough to fit in an overhead bin and one 'personal item' like a purse or briefcase. That could slow passengers trying to get through security, and collecting the fee at ticket counters and airport curbs could make lines longer. Boarding airplanes could be slower, too, with heightened stress as customers maximize carry-ons to avoid fees and then push to board early enough to find space in overhead cabin bins.

美利坚航空准备积极实施随身携带行李政策，一旦他们发现有乘客行李超规，就会毫不留情地阻止乘客登机。他们还准备在登机口和飞机上增强对行李规定的宣传。联合航空表示，该公司仍在制定计划，但可能尝试在完全预订航班登机开始之前，针对较晚登机的乘客在机舱门口就地检查他们的行李。

American plans to more aggressively pull customers aside at boarding gates if the airline thinks they have too much carry-on baggage, as well as step up announcements about size limits in gate areas and on airplanes. United says it is still formulating its plans, but may try to gate-check bags for customers in later boarding groups before boarding begins for fully booked flights.

三大航空公司均表示可能会再次引入金属模板架，在X光机前比对行李尺寸，防止超大行李通过。该政策在过去曾经引发乘客的诸多不满，2001年美国遭受恐怖袭击后，美国交通安全管理局(Transportation Security Administration，简称TSA)掌控了安检程序，该政策也就随之废止了。

All three airlines say it's possible that metal templates -- which prevent larger bags from making it through X-ray machines -- will be reintroduced. That's a tactic that angered many customers in the past and was eliminated when the Transportation Security Administration took control of screening after the 2001 terrorist attacks.

美利坚航空负责机场服务规划的高级副总裁马克?杜邦(Mark Dupont)表示，这是我们以前研究过的措施，如今可能会重新出台。

'It's something we've looked at in the past and may look at again,' says Mark Dupont, American's senior vice president of airport services planning.

联合航空的高级副总裁斯科特?杜兰(Scott Dolan)表示，该公司希望重新使用金属模板架。US Airways Group Inc.的总裁斯科特?科比(Scott Kirby)称，有些机场可能会重新使用金属模板架。虽然安检处仍由TSA控制，但是航空公司可以对联邦机构施加压力，如果某个安检处只负责安检一家航空公司、或者几家使用同样模板的航空公司的话，就应当允许行李模板的使用。

United is in favor of bringing back templates, says Senior Vice President Scott Dolan, and US Airways Group Inc. President Scott Kirby says a return of baggage templates is 'likely' at some airports. While security checkpoints are controlled by the TSA, airlines can pressure the federal agency to allow templates if a checkpoint serves a single airline, or several airlines with the same policy on templates.

TSA表示，目前正在“密切关注”事态的发展，如果出现乘客普遍从托运行李转向随手携带行李的趋势，该机构可能会重新安排员工。TSA发言人克里斯托弗?怀特(Christopher White)表示，该机构尚未接到任何有关重新设置金属模板的请求。此类请求可能很难获得批准。怀特称，严格实施行李限制属于航空公司的职能范畴，而TSA关注的是安全。

The TSA says it is 'closely monitoring' the situation and could move staff if there's a broad shift from checked bags to carry-ons. TSA spokesman Christopher White says the agency hasn't yet received any requests to reinstall templates. It could be a hard sell. 'Strictly enforcing baggage limitations is an airline function,' says Mr. White. 'TSA is focused on security.'

US Airways表示将增加员工应对办理登机手续柜台增加的工作量，但是随着乘客逐步适应新规，调整并减少托运行李，这个问题应当会得到解决。不过，航空公司还有另外一方面的顾虑：随着乘客增加随身携带行李，如果头顶行李箱在在起飞时装满，货舱已经达到最大行李装载量的航班可能没有地方容纳更多的行李。

US Airways says it will add staff to help with increased transaction time at ticket counters, but as customers adjust and check fewer bags, the problem should dissipate. One area of concern: With more carry-on bags, some flights that already have the maximum number of bags loaded in cargo holds may have nowhere to put more bags if overhead bins fill up at departure time.

科比表示，随身携带行李的政策肯定会付诸实施。该公司确实希望新的收费政策能够促使乘客携带较少的行李。

'Carry-on rules will be enforced,' Mr. Kirby says. The airline does hope the new fee will result in customers packing lighter.

行李限制将在一定程度上降低航空公司的燃油成本，原因是飞机载重越大，其耗油量越大。US Airways表示，目前，该公司每位往返票乘客的平均燃油成本（包括国际航班）为299美元，而公司往返航班的平均票价不到500美元。

Less luggage will reduce airlines' fuel bills a bit since the heavier planes are, the more fuel they burn. US Airways says its fuel costs per passenger, including international flights, now average $299 on a round-trip ticket, in line with estimates compiled in last week's Middle Seat column. Its average round-trip fare is under $500, US Airways says.

US Airways首席执行长道格拉斯?帕克(Douglas Parker)表示，这种局面使航空公司别无选择，只能加收行李托运费。他说，该公司认为新政策是合适的，也是必需的。帕克表示，除非US Airways发现乘客不再选择加收首件行李托运费的航空公司，否则他们会坚持实施收费政策。更有可能出现的结果是，乘客会改变行李打包的习惯──减少托运行李，增加随身携带行李，而不是改换航空公司。

That leaves the airline little choice but to impose fees, says US Airways Chief Executive Douglas Parker. 'We think that it's a change that is appropriate and required,' he says. The fee will stick unless US Airways finds consumers won't fly an airline with a first-bag fee, Mr. Parker says. A more likely outcome is that rather than change airlines, travelers will change how they pack -- toting less on trips and stuffing as much as they can into carry-on cases.

除此之外，航空公司还有一个节约成本的举措：从8月份开始，US Airways的航班将不再提供免费苏打水。咖啡、瓶装水及软饮料将收取2美元；酒精饮料的价格将由原来的5美元提高到7美元。

Another cost-saving change: US Airways is ending free sodas on its flights beginning in August. Coffee, bottled water and soft drinks will cost $2; alcoholic drinks will be raised to $7 from $5.

对于许多乘客来说，新收费政策带来的最大麻烦无疑是他们必须争夺机上行李箱的空间。为了确保自己能够找到位置，一些乘客已经开始插队，造成登机队伍的混乱。乘客不得不费劲将大件行李塞入小行李箱中，而一旦行李箱满载，乘务员常常还得将行李抬下飞机，托运到目的地。所有这一切都有可能变得更糟，虽然航空公司表示，如果乘客无法为合规的随身携带行李找到摆放空间，他们不会就地收费。

For many travelers, the most odious aspect of the baggage fee is the anticipated battle for overhead-bin space. To make sure they can find room, some customers already push their way through boarding queues. Passengers struggle to stuff large bags into small bins, and flight attendants often find themselves taking bags off planes and checking them to their destinations once bins fill up. All this will likely get worse, though the airlines say that the new fee won't be collected in airplane cabins from customers who can't find space for their allowed carry-on bags.

行李箱之争会导致航班延误、让乘客不满。来自波士顿的乘客迈克尔?帕特诺德(Michael Patnode)便对新的收费政策非常不满，他说，“这只会促使乘客将他们所有能够随身携带的东西都一股脑地拖到机舱里。”他倒是愿意接受一个更加现实的票价。他说，任何收费低于成本的企业都应该会破产，很明显，航空公司已经将成本削减到了令其产品完全丧失吸引力的地步。

Bin battles can delay flights and leave customers frustrated. 'This fee will just cause many people to drag all their worldly possessions into the cabin,' says Michael Patnode, an American customer from Boston angered by the new fee. He'd prefer more-realistic fares instead. 'Any business that charges less than its costs deserves to go bankrupt, and it's clear the airlines have cut their costs to the point that the product is completely unappealing,' he says.

美利坚航空的杜邦说，该公司首次宣布将加收行李托运费后，来自乘客的反应一直集中在对机场手续和登机过程的顾虑上。美利坚航空表示，准备直面应对这些变化，并希望不会出现瓶颈问题。

American's Mr. Dupont says much of the response his airline has received from customers after first announcing the fee has centered on concerns about the airport and boarding experience. American says it is prepared to deal with the changes and hopes bottlenecks won't be created.

几个月以来，美利坚航空的托运工作一直不尽人意。今年前4个月，美利坚航空的行李可靠度是各大航空公司中最差的，每141名乘客至少会有一件行李遭到不当处理，其准时可靠度也是所有美国航空公司中最低的。2007年，在美国各大航空公司的准时性指标上，只有US Airways比美利坚航空更糟糕。

The airline's baggage operation has struggled for many months. Through the first four months of this year, American has been worst among major airlines in baggage reliability, mishandling at least one bag for every 141 passengers, and worst among all U.S. airlines in on-time dependability. In 2007, only US Airways was worse than American among major carriers in the on-time category.

美利坚航空针对第一件行李收取的托运费适用于美国和加拿大的所有航班，正式生效针对6月22日及以后购买的机票。美利坚航空表示，此举每年将影响到超过2400万乘客，大约是国内乘客数量的三分之一。（约有一半的乘客不托运行李。）新政策不适用于头等舱和商务舱乘客，也不适用于需要转乘国际航班和现役军人乘客。

American's first-bag fee, which applies to travel in the U.S. and Canada, went into effect for tickets bought Sunday or later. American says it will affect more than 24 million fliers annually, or roughly one-third of domestic passengers. (About half of its customers don't check bags.) Elite-level frequent fliers or people buying full-fare coach tickets or first-class tickets are exempt, as are passengers connecting to international flights and active-duty military personnel.

新规定非常复杂，即便是杜邦自己在被问及新政策如何适用于所谓的代码共享安排时，他也需要核实一番才能回答。所谓代码共享安排是指一家航空公司将另外一家航空公司的座位当作自己的座位出售给乘客。 (新规定适用于乘客乘坐的第一个航班，无论是哪家航空公司出售的机票。)

The rules are complicated -- even Mr. Dupont had to check when asked on how the fee applied to so-called code-share arrangements, when one airline sells another's seats as its own. (The rules of the first airline you fly apply, regardless of which airline sold you the ticket.)

总之，通过增收行李托运费，美利坚航空每年将增加3.5亿美元以上的收入。不过，比起飙升的油价而言，这对公司的补贴不过是杯水车薪。该公司预计今年的燃油成本将比2007年增加26亿美元。美利坚航空称，该公司一直未能有效提高票价以抵消成本上升的影响，因此决定增收行李托运费。

All told, American will increase revenue by more than $350 million annually with the fee. That's a small drop in the oil barrel, since it expects to pay $2.6 billion more for fuel this year than in 2007, but the carrier says it hasn't been able to raise fares enough to cover its costs, so it's instituting new fees.

美利坚航空表示，该公司的机场柜台将接受信用卡付款，希望以此尽量减少对乘客办理登机手续的影响。行李搬运人员也将获准收取行李托运费，并不再收取2美元的就地行李托运费。

American says it hopes to minimize the impact on check-in lines at airports by making its kiosks able to collect fees with a credit-card swipe. Skycaps, too, will be able to collect baggage fees, and the $2 fee to check bags curbside with a skycap will be dropped.

上周晚些时候，继美利坚航空之后，联合航空和US Airways双双宣布将增收行李托运费。尽管如此，至少到目前为止，其它航空公司对此还是持抵制态度。不过，这种局面随时都可能改变，尤其是如果竞争对手发现乘客按照规定支付行李托运费，而机票销售并未出现下降的话。不过，一些航空公司可能将增收行李托运费视为一个区别服务的契机，尤其在目前美国各个航空公司服务相差无几的情况下。

While United and US Airways both matched American's first-bag fee late last week, other airlines have resisted, at least so far. That could change any day, especially if competitors see customers paying the fee with no drop in ticket sales. But some carriers may see the first-bag fee as an opportunity to differentiate service at a time when it's hard to distinguish between U.S. airlines.

比如，911恐怖袭击事件后，其它航空公司纷纷开始对机上三明治和零食进行收费，只有大陆航空(Continental Airlines Inc.)继续供应免费餐食，以此树立独特的业界形像。大陆航空也宣布将针对第二件行李收费50美元的往返行李托运费，但尚未针对第一件行李收费。该公司的发言人拒绝就行李托运费发表评论。

Continental Airlines Inc., for example, tried to set itself apart from the pack by continuing to serve meals on flights after 2001 when other airlines were switching to buy-on-board sandwiches and snacks. Continental did match the $50 round-trip fee for checking a second piece of luggage, but not the first-bag fee yet. A spokesman declined to comment on baggage fees.

达美航空(Delta Air Lines Inc.)上周表示，该公司尚未有针对第一件行李收托运费的计划。达美航空发言人贝西?塔尔顿(Betsy Talton)称，此举将不利于乘客，而如果乘客试图将所有行李搬上飞机的话，也将增加航空公司的运营难度。

Delta Air Lines Inc. last week said it didn't plan on charging for the first bag. 'This would not be good for customers, and it could be operationally difficult as customers try to bring all of their luggage onto the aircraft,' says spokeswoman Betsy Talton.

关于这一点，许多乘客都表示认同。

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080626/ffe120835.asp

销售下滑迫使通用汽车减产促销

2008年6月24日 06:59

为解决大型车销售下滑的问题，通用汽车公司(General Motors Corp.)周一宣布，将在下半年把皮卡和运动型多用途车(SUV)的产量削减17万辆，并推出更多促销措施以清理过高的库存。

通用汽车将把轿车和酷越车(crossover)的产量提高4.7万辆。与此同时，在收入压力影响下，通用汽车表示，将把2009年款车型价格平均提高3.5%，以弥补产品升级和商品价格上涨所带来的成本。

通用汽车周一表示，将把其在美国的六家汽车装配工厂的夏季停工时间延长，从7月份到今年年底，这些工厂的停工时间将延长一周至10周不等。

与此同时，由于市场对小型车的需求上升，通用汽车将增加轿车和酷越车工厂的生产班次。

通用汽车周一表示，已聘请花旗银行(Citibank)担任出售悍马(Hummar)事宜的顾问公司。

通用汽车周一表示，通用汽车将对八个品牌车型展开促销活动，消费者可以获得最多72个月的免息期。通用汽车经销商周一表示，顾客在选择某类车型时最多可获得7,000美元的现金折扣。

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080624/MKT065808.asp

石油王国沙特做出增产承诺

Saudis Promise More Oil Kingdom Increases Output

2008年06月23日14:15

沙特阿拉伯向全世界承诺当前将少量增产，且以后可能大幅增加原油供应，试图以此平息石油市场的深切忧虑。

Saudi Arabia moved to calm deep anxieties in the oil market by promising the world a little more oil now and potentially a lot more later.

但沙特的增产是否足以减缓原油价格史无前例的高涨势头还是个未知数。许多人都担心油价可能还将大涨。上周，纽约商品交易所原油期货价格曾一度上探每桶139.89美元，创下历史新高，此后仅有小幅回落。

But it is unclear whether the Saudi bid to reassert its oil muscle will be enough to slow a historic surge in crude prices that many fear could go far higher. Oil prices in New York hit a record last week of $139.89 a barrel and have since fallen back, but only marginally.

在位于红海沿岸的吉达市举行的石油生产国和消费国石油峰会上，全球最大的石油生产国沙特对各国部长及石油官员表示，如有必要，今年剩下的时间内将在现有的日产量950万桶的基础上增加20万桶。全球石油市场的需求约为每天8,600万桶。

The world's largest oil producer told ministers and oil executives at an unusual summit of producers and consumers in the Red Sea city of Jeddah that it will boost its output by 200,000 barrels a day for the rest of the year if needed, adding to its current production of around 9.5 million barrels a day. The global market for oil is about 86 million barrels a day.

除此之外，为了消除人们对将来的全球供应无法满足日渐高涨的需求的担忧，沙特还承诺要积极采取行动，到2018年将总产能从目前的日产量1,140万提高到最多1,500万桶。

In addition, seeking to address rising fears that future world supplies may not match rising demand, Saudi Arabia also promised an aggressive campaign to push its overall output capability to as much as 15 million barrels a day by 2018 from around 11.4 million now.

如此幅度的产能提升对日产量从未超过1,100万桶的沙特来说可谓惊人。要达到这一目标，沙特必须首先增加早在20世纪40年代就已投产的大油田的产量－－这可不是轻而易举的事。

A capacity increase of that magnitude would be extraordinary for a country that has never produced more than 11 million barrels a day. To get there, Saudi Arabia would have to squeeze greater quantities of oil primarily from huge fields that have been in production since as far back as the 1940s -- far from a simple task.

沙特应对长期供应担忧的举措出于人们意料之外。就在几个月前，沙特石油大臣纳伊米(Ali Naimi)还表示，沙特现在已经在进行巨大的投入，如果一切都按计划进行的话，将在明年之内将沙特的产能提高到日产1,250万桶，他认为没有必要进一步提高产量。沙特投资逾600亿美元增加产能，同时弥补Ghawar和Abqaiq等年代久远的大油田产出率的自然下滑。

The Saudi move to address long-term supply worries came as a surprise. The kingdom's oil minister, Ali Naimi, said just months ago that he saw no need to go beyond the huge investments now under way, which will push Saudi output ability to 12.5 million barrels a day sometime next year, if all goes according to plan. The kingdom is spending more than $60 billion to increase its production abilities while also offsetting the natural decline in output rates at huge but aging fields like Ghawar and Abqaiq.

一些石油专家对沙特将日产量增加到1,500万桶的能力表示怀疑。曾任沙特阿美(Aramco)总裁的爱德华?普莱斯(Edward Price)说，我担心现有的大油田日产量最多只能达到1,200万桶左右。他还说，就算是沙特，资源也是有限的。

Some oil experts expressed skepticism about the Saudis' ability to boost output to 15 million barrels a day. 'I am afraid that we are going to see the big fields [now in production] top off at 12 million barrels a day or so,' said Edward Price, a former president of Saudi Arabian Oil Co., or Aramco, who keeps up with developments there. 'Even in Saudi Arabia, there are resource limits.'

沙特做出增产承诺正值其他大产油国的产量剧跌之际。尼日利亚称，由于其石油设施不断受到武装袭击，目前的产量已跌至25年低点，日产量较正常水平下降了近100万桶。墨西哥、英国和挪威这些在满足市场石油需求方面扮演着重要角色的国家的出口也在下降。

The promised added barrels from Saudi Arabia come as output has fallen sharply in other big producing countries. Nigeria says that because of continuing militant attacks against its oil facilities, production is now at a 25-year low, down nearly one million barrels a day from its normal output. Oil exports from Mexico, Britain and Norway -- all of which have played major roles in slaking the world's oil thirst -- also are falling.

在沙特举行的国际石油峰会气氛凝重，包括英国首相戈登?布朗(Gordon Brown)在内的36个国家的代表、近10家国际石油公司的高管，以及来自石油输出国组织(OPEC)的高层官员就如何应对高不可抑的油价展开激辩。沙特国王阿卜杜拉(Abdullah)说高油价是对全球安全的重大威胁。

The Saudi-hosted summit was a somber affair as delegates from 36 countries, including British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, the heads of nearly 10 international oil companies and top officials from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, debated how to address nosebleed prices, a situation that Saudi King Abdullah called a major threat to global security.

油价在过去一年中已涨了一倍，导致燃油价格飙升，也给航空、货运到美国汽车生产等许多行业带来极大的压力。油价的上涨还引发了欧洲的暴力抗议活动，以及很多发展中国家的经济动荡。

Oil prices have doubled in the past year, causing fuel prices to soar and putting huge strains on industries ranging from airlines and cargo shipping to U.S. auto manufacturers. The price rise has also stirred violent protests in Europe and economic unrest in much of the developing world.

为期一天的吉达会议上，各方纷纷做出承诺，沙特等大产油国誓言将致力于平息人们对原油供应量的担忧，美国等主要消费国也谈及加大可再生能源的投资力度。但这次会议可能很难改变人们认为世界石油市场不稳定的看法。

The one-day Jeddah gathering unleashed a spate of promises as big producers like Saudi Arabia vowed to do more to calm supply fears and big consumers like the U.S. talked of heightened investments in renewable energies. Yet the conclave is likely to do little to change perceptions about the precariousness of world oil markets.

在热情的握手和表示要进行合作的豪言壮语背后，与会各方对导致油价高涨的罪魁祸首意见不一。

Behind the warm handshakes and the talk of cooperation rumbled a deep disagreement over what has caused the oil-price surge.

沙特官员四处奔走，向人们传达油价的波动与石油供应无关的信息。沙特国王阿卜杜拉在讲话中谴责涉入石油期货交易的人“自私”，说投机者“十分卑劣”。

Saudi officials worked the halls, delivering the message that price volatility wasn't related to oil supplies. King Abdullah, in his speech, decried the 'selfishness' of those involved in the oil-futures market, speculators whom he derided as 'despicable.'

阿卜杜拉说，虽然OPEC近几个月来一直努力满足需求，但西方许多人仍然只将矛头对准OPEC。

The king said that many in the West continue to 'point the finger of blame at OPEC alone,' despite efforts within OPEC to keep pace with demand in recent months.

但美国等消费国的部长将大部分责任归咎于供求关系，认为在全球需求自2003年以来以平均每年1.8%的速度增长之际，市场需要更多石油。全球需要的增长在很大程度上是由于中国和印度的需求飙升。OPEC供应着全球近40%的原油。

Yet ministers from consuming nations like the U.S. put most of the blame on the fundamentals of supply and demand, saying more oil is needed at a time when global demand since 2003 has jumped by 1.8% a year on average -- thanks largely to surging demand from China and India. OPEC supplies nearly 40% of the world's crude oil.

美国能源部长博德曼(Samuel Bodman)说，我相信我们大多数人在有件事上都意见一致：当前的油价太高了。除非我们行动起来，否则形势就会继续令人难以忍受。

'I believe that most of us agree on one thing: Prices are too high at present,' said U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman. 'And unless we act, the situation will remain unsustainable.'

许多产油国都认为美国应当采取措施加强对石油期货市场的监管，但会议在这方面没有取得明显进展。对于如何让沙特、伊朗或俄罗斯等大产油国发布有关储量或是每个油田消耗速度的更为可靠的数据，也没有进行公开讨论。这类数据会让通常都处于一片迷雾之中的市场增加透明度。

The gathering made no clear headway on whether the U.S. should take steps to tighten regulations on the oil-futures trading market, as many oil producers think it should. Nor was there any public discussion of how to get big producers like Saudi Arabia, Iran or Russia to publish more reliable data on their reserves and or the depletion rates of individual fields. Such data would offer more clarity to a market that most often operates in a deep fog.

石油消费国的监察机构国际能源署(International Energy Agency)自己在对世界最大的一些油田进行统计，试图弥补信息断层。

The International Energy Agency, a watchdog for consuming nations, is doing its own study of the world's biggest fields in a bid to bridge the information gap.

许多官员都是在国内或国际的政治重压之下来到吉达的。

Many officials came to Jeddah under heavy political fire either at home or abroad.

因高昂的燃油价格而在国内面对猛烈抗议的英国首相布朗提出了石油生产国和消费国可以更好地合作、减轻危机的一些方法。他提出停止限制西方投资阿拉伯国家的能源产业，同时也宣布他愿意增加主权财富基金进入英国市场的渠道。

British Prime Minister Brown, who has faced a rash of protests at home over high fuel costs, pitched a number of ways that producing and consuming nations could better cooperate to ease the crisis. He called for the end of restrictions to Western investment in Arab countries' energy sectors while also announcing his willingness to increase access for sovereign wealth funds to the U.K.'s market.

中国国家副主席习近平为中国的能源政策辩护，表示中国决心发展替代能源、提高能效。中国激增的能源需求帮助推高了全球油价。为了应对油价上涨，中国上周宣布，计划提高补贴的燃油价格。不过，习近平强调说，直到最近，中国国内能源需求90%来自国内供应。

China's Vice President Xi Jinping defended his country's energy policies, saying China is committed to alternative energy developments and to increased energy efficiency. China's booming energy demand has helped propel world oil prices. To counter that rise, China announced last week that it plans to raise its subsidized fuel costs to consumers. Still, Mr. Xi noted that, until recently, 90% of China's domestic energy needs came from domestic supplies.

在吉达会议之前，沙特先是希望借承诺大幅增产来推动油价回落。但这一举措并没有给市场造成什么影响，沙特石油官员似乎又将注意力转向了长期的计划。

Leading up to the Jeddah meeting, the Saudis first hoped to nudge prices down by promising a big boost in output. When that left markets unfazed, the country's oil officials appeared to turn their attention to long-range plans instead.

纳伊米说，沙特计划未来5年内在石油项目上投入1,290亿美元。他说，如果必要的话，沙特可以增加5个大油田的开采量，将日产量提高200多万桶。

Mr. Naimi said the country is looking to invest $129 billion in oil projects over the next five years. If needed, he said, the country could add more than two million barrels a day in extra capacity through more drilling in five huge fields.

但那无疑会是个挑战。与其他地方的石油公司一样，沙特也遭遇了成本暴涨和项目延迟。从一些项目来看，纳伊米的产量预测可能很难达到。

But that is certain to be a challenge. Saudi Arabia has been hit by soaring costs and project delays, as have oil companies elsewhere. And with some projects, Mr. Naimi is making output predictions that could be hard to hit.

举例来说，沙特阿美斥资近200亿美元开发Khurais油田，目的在于将产量提高到每天120万桶－－该公司内部的许多人都认为这个目标太高了。但纳伊米周日表示，要进一步提高沙特的石油产能，Khurais油田将逐步将日产量再提高25万桶。

Aramco is spending nearly $20 billion, for example, to develop the huge Khurais field, with an aim of pushing its output to 1.2 million barrels a day -- a target that many within the company think is overambitious. But to push the country's abilities still higher, Mr. Naimi said Sunday that Khurais would over time be made to deliver 250,000 barrels a day more.

Margaret Coker / Neil King Jr.

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080623/ecb143420.asp

投资者担心调价无助中国炼油商扭亏

Investors Doubt Price Rise Is Cure for China Refiners

2008年06月23日12:56

周五亚洲交易时段，中国两大石油巨头的股价出现上扬，此前中国政府上调了成品油的价格，但由于人们疑心政府此举不会显著降低两公司炼油业务的亏损，投资者在调价消息发布伊始所迸发出的热情很快便消退了。

Shares in China's top two oil refiners advanced in Asian trading Friday after Beijing increased oil-product prices, but early enthusiasm among investors waned amid doubts the move will put a significant dent in the companies' losses.

在香港证交所，中国石油化工股份有限公司(China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., 简称：中国石化)和中国石油天然气股份有限公司(PetroChina Co. Ltd., 简称：中国石油)的股价上周五开盘双双上扬5%，但股市收盘时涨幅都出现了回落。

China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., known as Sinopec, and PetroChina Co. each rose 5% at the open Friday on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, but the gains eased by the end of the day.

中国此次将汽油和柴油的基准价每吨上调了人民币1,000元(合145.35美元)，将航空燃油的价格每吨上调了1,500元，调价措施于上周五生效。此次行动令市场感到意外，人们原本预计政府在8月份奥运会结束前会维持油价的稳定。这次调价主要是为了解决日益严重的燃油供应短缺问题，由于炼油商要以不断飙升的国际市场价格购入原油，却不得不以政府限定的价格在国内市场出售成品油，因此，为了避免炼油业务出现更大亏损，炼油商开始缩减燃油产量。

China increased the base price of gasoline and diesel by 1,000 yuan (US$145.35) a metric ton and raised prices paid to refiners for jet fuel by 1,500 yuan, effective Friday. The move surprised the market, which had expected the government to hold off until after the Olympics in August. The increases were aimed largely at addressing worsening shortages, caused by refiners reducing their production to avoid losses that they incur by buying crude at soaring global prices and selling it at capped domestic prices.

不过即使是在此次调价之后，中国的汽油和柴油零售价仍比国际水平低三分之一左右，这意味着中国石化和中国石油的炼油业务有可能继续亏损。投资者还担心中国政府可能会取消给予进口原油和成品油的增值税退税优惠，这一优惠措施旨在弥补炼油商的损失。

But even after the increase, gasoline and diesel prices are still roughly a third below international levels, meaning Sinopec and PetroChina are likely to continue to incur losses on refining. Investors also questioned whether Beijing will persist with rebates on value-added taxes on imported crude oil and oil products that had been intended to ameliorate losses for the refiners.

DBS唯高达(DBS Vickers )的石油分析师Gideon Lo说，此次调价对弥补石油企业炼油业务的巨额亏损起不了太大作用，它也没能缓解炼油行业所面临的政策不明朗因素。

The 'actual contribution will not be significant compared to their huge refining-operation losses. It also does not ease the policy overhang that is overshadowing the sector,' said Gideon Lo, an oil analyst at DBS Vickers.

中国石化发言人黄文生说，政府未通知将停止执行上述退税政策，这一政策定于本月底到期。

Sinopec spokesman Huang Wensheng said Beijing hasn't issued a notice that it will stop paying the rebate, which is to end this month.

在上海股市，中国石化A股上周五收于人民币12.83元，涨幅2.1%。中国石油A股收于15.86元，涨幅4.6%。而两公司在香港上市股票的涨幅则要小些，中国石化H股涨1.1%，中国石油H股涨1.6%。

In Shanghai, Sinopec's Class A shares, traded mostly by domestic investors, ended the day up 2.1% at 12.83 yuan. PetroChina's Class A shares rose 4.6% to 15.86 yuan. Gains in the companies' shares listed in Hong Kong were more muted. Sinopec rose 1.1% in Hong Kong, while PetroChina added 1.6%.

David Winning

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080623/bch130413.asp

上海和香港股市走高，受中国政府宣布上调成品油价格影响

2008年6月20日 13:56

上海和香港股市走高，炼油商类股领涨，此前中国政府于前夜宣布上调成品油价格。

上证综合指数上涨4.8%，至2,883点，恒生指数涨2.3%，至23,325.25点。恒生中国企业指数上涨2.4%，至12,727.60点。

中国宣布将汽油和柴油价格上调17%-18%，上调幅度为四年多来的最高水平。

上海股市出现大幅振荡，目前买盘已不仅仅限于能源类股，连航空类股等燃油消费股也收复了早盘的失地。

但交易员对涨势能否会持续缺乏信心。

海通证券(Haitong Securities)分析师张崎称，中国投资者不能作空，因此当股市走软时，他们获利的唯一方式就是顺势买入，然后快速卖出，因此后市股市的波动可能更大。

东方航空A股(600115.SH)最新上涨2.9%，至人民币6.73元，早些时候一度跌至人民币5.90元低点。香港市场上，中国国航(0753.HK)最新跌3.4%，至4.57港元。

尽管股市走高，但分析师仍对炼油商类股以及上海股市的长期前景持谨慎态度。

DBS唯高达(DBS Vickers)的分析师建议投资者逢高抛售，因为此次调价并不足以使国内炼油业务恢复盈利。

光大证券(Everbright Securities)分析师石鸿林表示，获利回吐已经出现。

石鸿林称，今日股市的振荡走势完全不足为奇，例如中国石化(Sinopec)早盘的下跌就是如此。持有该股的投资者此前蒙受了大幅亏损，其中部分投资者正藉燃油涨价消息公布之际出货。

中国石化A股(600028.SHG)最新涨3.3%，至人民币12.98元，但早些时候一度跌至人民币11.95元。

中国石化香港上市的H股(0386.HK)最新涨3.6%，至8.28港元，但已经脱离了8.49港元高点。

其他个股中，中国石油A股(601857.SH)最新涨5.2%，至人民币15.96元，H股(0857.HK)最新涨4.7%，至10.78港元，均脱离了盘中高点。

石鸿林认为获利回吐可能推动中国石油后市走低。中国石油每下挫5%，上证综合指数就会下跌100点，因此若中国石油最终收盘下跌，则会拖累股指一同走低。

鉴于投资者仍担心通货膨胀对上市公司业绩的影响，因此上海股市的上涨不太可能带动其他类股的买盘。

华泰证券(Huatai Securites)分析师陈金仁表示，即使市场普遍认为燃油价格的上调对消费者价格指数(CPI)不会造成明显影响，但当前的通货膨胀水平仍然高企，加息担忧依然挥之不去。

陈金仁称，预计多数投资者将采取观望态度，等待第三季度上市公司收益的公布。

本文由道琼斯通讯社提供，获取更丰富更及时的道琼斯财经资讯，请访问WWW.DJCNEWS.COM。

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080620/MKT135546.asp

中国上调能源价格

2008年06月20日07:00

面对原油价格突破每桶130美元给政府控制下的能源定价体系造成的冲击，中国政府宣布将上调汽油、柴油和电力的零售价格。

此举将向消费者身上转移一部分全球能源价格上涨的压力。国际上许多企业管理人士和政府官员早就敦促中国上调能源价格，尽管目前通胀的压力不断加大。上调油价和电价将会提高企业的成本，可能推高中国出口产品的价格。但这些调整并非是一些人所要求的对价格控制体系进行全面改革。

这一消息是在周四晚间中国国内市场休市后宣布的，而有关中国在全球石油市场中的作用及其对油价影响力的争论很有可能进一步升温。在此消息公布后，石油期货价格迅即回落，因预计上调零售价格将抑制中国对原油的购买量。但许多专家近几周来不断警告说，上调成品油价格实际上会导致中国的石油需求出现增长，从而在近期内加剧油价上涨。

中国上次调整国内成品油价格是去年11月，调价幅度为10%，而当时的原油价格约为每桶90美元。中国国家发展和改革委员会(National Development and Reform Commission)表示，此次将汽油和柴油的基准价格分别上调了17%和18%，自本周五开始生效。汽油价格将从每加仑2.80美元（1加仑=3.785升）涨至3.05美元，柴油价格将从每加仑2.45美元涨至3.05美元，这也是四年来的最大涨幅。全国销售电价平均上涨了4.7%。

中国是仅次于美国的全球第二大石油消费国，长期以来一直被认为是多年来全球油价持续上涨的主要推动力。随着近几个月来油价的飙升，中国政府长期坚持的限制汽油、柴油和电力零售价格的政策引起了前所未有的关注。批评人士指责此举是干扰市场发出的信号，维持了对石油和煤炭的需求，推动了价格的节节攀升。

随着通胀问题日益成为全球关注的焦点，对中国价格管制的政治压力甚至有可能超过对其汇率政策的长期争执，成为中国最具争议性的国际经济议题。美国财政部长亨利?鲍尔森(Henry Paulson)谈及能源的次数明显增加。他敦促中国政府放弃能源价格控制措施，称美国在上世纪70年代经过痛苦的经历后才发现，这种做法行不通。他也在本周的中美战略经济对话中再次提到了这个问题。

纽约咨询公司Rhodium Group的中国能源专家特雷弗?豪泽(Trevor Houser)说，中国即将取代沙特阿拉伯，成为美国眼中制造高油价的罪魁祸首。华盛顿抱怨中国价格管制的人同指责人民币汇率的都是同一群人。

周三，16名民主党参议员致信布什政府官员，指责中国的价格管制是油价上涨的原因，敦促他们在这个问题上给中国施加压力。署名者包括前总统参选人希拉里?克林顿(Hillary Clinton)。他们在信中写道，美国人在加油站看到的情况在某种程度上是由中国发生的事情导致的。

中国国家副主席习近平参加本周末在沙特举行的石油生产国和消费国峰会时，此类紧张关系也将会被带到会议上。

这次调价并未取消政府定价的体制，不过中国已表示要进行更深入的改革。发改委副主任张晓强本周表示，我们改革定价体制的决心很大。但由于中国目前面临着10多年来最严重的通货膨胀（今年以来为8%以上），政府官员看来不愿让中国消费者完全面对世界油价暴涨的冲击。很重要的一点是对社会稳定的担忧，此次涨价的同时就宣布了一个补贴计划，以期将涨价对贫困人口的影响降至最低。

批评中国限价政策的逻辑非常简单：通过压低企业和消费者购买成品油的价格，中国妨碍了世界油价飙升导致需求走软这一正常市场机制发挥作用。

迄今为止，中国政府定价的主要影响还不是让其消费者炫耀基本不受其他国家高油价的影响。这种做法让中国的炼油厂无利可图，因为它们要以全球市场的价格购买原油，但以政府定价销售成品油。炼油厂从市场上退出，带来了成品油普遍短缺的现象。同样，发电厂的亏损也在上升，因为它们要以市场价购买煤炭，但却以较低的国家定价销售电力，电力短缺也开始在各地出现。

这意味着可供中国消费者购买的能源实际上是减少了，而没有增加。将价格提高到足以让炼油厂盈利的水平，炼油厂和发电厂就将全力满足过去几个月中难以释放的全部需求。

国际能源署(International Energy Agency)在最新一期石油市场报告中写道，自2007年以来，中国持续面临着成品油短缺的局面，这表明存在着巨大的潜在需求。IEA称，因为这些潜在的需求，如果零售价格上涨改善了供应情况，中国的石油需求增长甚至还会加速。

在去年11月将成品油价格上调10%以后，中国的石油需求并未明显放缓，世界市场的原油价格从那以后已上涨了约50%。

这次涨价能否让炼油厂完全扭亏为盈尚不清楚：一些分析师曾估计需要涨价25%才能实现这一目标。纽约股市周四，中国石油类公司的亚洲存托凭证大幅上扬。由于这一涨价消息，中国石化(China Petroleum & Chemical Corp.)上涨了9.4%，中国石油(PetroChina Co.)上涨了6%。

成品油的供应可能迅速得到改善，因为许多炼油厂和分销商近几周来一直在期待着价格的上调。政府定价让它们能够有机会积累汽油和柴油，从而在不久后以更高的价格卖出获利。

尽管并没有确切的库存量数据，但中国近期的成品油进口却在增加：5月份的柴油进口量名列历史第三位，中国当月也是汽油的净进口国，这在历史上还是第一次。

这种行为也是分析师所说的价格管制增加国际市场动荡的一个原因。油价长期被人为压低，这一扭曲现象鼓励了消费者多开车，也让企业建设效率低下的工厂。高油价最终会鼓励消费者提高效率，但鉴于中国的石油使用现状和经济的高速发展，效果可能不会像一些观察人士预计的那么明显。

Rhodium Group的豪泽说，如果中国经济按10%的速度增长，即使油价上涨，石油需求还是会增加。他说，只有在石油消费者转而采用其它低能耗的手段时，高油价才能抑制需求，但目前中国并没有多少这样的手段。大多数中国城市的公共交通服务并不完善，让许多上班族别无选择。铁路运输通常都已满负荷运转，使消耗柴油的卡车运输成为企业仅有的选择之一。

尽管将中国对能源的强劲需求视为油价上涨的原因似乎已经成为一种惯例，但油价是在全球市场设定的，过去5年来全球石油消费量的年增长幅度仅略高于1%。因此，许多分析师表示，供应紧张、地缘政治的不确定性以及影响仍难以准确估量的商品市场金融投机行为等因素也同样重要。

美国咨询机构High Frequency Economics的卡尔?韦恩伯格(Carl Weinberg)说，中国在石油方面的消费相对较小。因此我很难理解为何要归咎于中国。中国是其他大宗商品市场的重要力量。它占全球钢铁需求的一半，铜需求的四分之一，但只占全球石油消费的不到10%。他说，将中国在钢铁或铜市场上的作用延伸到石油市场的做法是错误的。这是一种株连的做法。

Andrew Batson

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080620/BCH008459.asp