Small Cars, Big Potential For Asian Manufacturers
2007年10月23日16:56
在日产汽车(Nissan Motor)技术中心一次高度保密的车型设计会上，日产产品战略总监卡洛斯?塔瓦雷斯(Carlos Tavares)宣布了雄心勃勃的新战略：以实用型汽车的售价销售外观豪华的小型车，并从中盈利。
At a top-secret session on car designs at a Nissan Motor Co. technical center, chief product strategist Carlos Tavares recited the company's ambitious new mission: to sell an expensive-looking small car for the price of no-frills models -- and somehow make a profit on it.
经过一年的忙碌，日产汽车的工程师们拿出了7款照此思路设计的小型车，它们有时髦的火箭型车身，并配以 旧情调的卵形前灯。但这些车型的生产成本都还不够低，按照塔瓦雷斯所称，所有备选车型的成本都太高，他们还有很多工作要做。
Engineers, grappling with this task for a year, presented seven drawing-board variations of a small car with a stylish, rocket-shaped body and oval headlights reminiscent of marquis-cut diamonds. But the designs just weren't inexpensive enough to make, said Mr. Tavares. 'All of this is costly,' he grumbled. 'We still have a lot of work to do.'
在因利润空间狭小而被大型汽车厂商冷落近20年后，小型、廉价的汽车一时间再次成为国际汽车业的新潮流。随着汽油价格持续攀升，全球范围消费者的偏好都开始向更小、更节能的车型转移。美国驾车者纷纷将日产Armada之类的运动型多用途车(SUV)折价换成本田汽车(Honda Motor) Fit之类的微型车。在汽车销量呈爆炸性增长的发展中国家市场，驾车新手们也是从最廉价、排量最小的汽车开始起步。
Small, low-cost cars have abruptly become the next frontier for the global auto industry, after almost 20 years in which major car makers dismissed such vehicles as a low-profit afterthought. As gasoline prices keep rising, consumer tastes around the world are shifting toward smaller, more fuel-efficient cars. In the U.S., drivers are trading in sport-utility vehicles like the Nissan Armada for smaller models like the subcompact Honda Fit. In developing markets, where sales are exploding, first-time drivers are starting out with the smallest, lowest-price cars.
据汽车业研究机构CSM Worldwide Inc.称，到2013年全球小型轿车需求将增长30%至2,700万辆，其中大部分新增需求将来自发展中市场。而同期的SUV需求量预计将下滑4%至1,000万辆。
Global demand for small cars is expected to grow by 30% to 27 million vehicles by 2013, with the growth coming mostly from developing markets, according to auto-research firm CSM Worldwide Inc. Demand for big SUVs during that time is expected to drop 4%, to 10 million vehicles.
丰田汽车(Toyota Motor)最近表示，最早可能会在2010年面向巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国等广大发展中市场推出一款售价在7,000美元左右的汽车。克莱斯勒集团 (Chrysler LLC)则联手中国的奇瑞汽车(Chery Automobile)生产小型车，产品将出口至包括美国在内的全球各地。估计将于本周三开幕的东京车展上，许多厂商的展台将被小型车霸占。
Toyota Motor Corp. recently said it may launch a car priced at around $7,000 as early as 2010, aimed at large developing countries such as Brazil, Russia, India and China. Chrysler LLC is tying up with China's Chery Automobile Co. to make small cars for export world-wide, including the U.S. Small cars are expected to dominate many auto makers' displays at the Tokyo Motor Show opening Wednesday.
在市场风向转变的同时，各大厂商也面临着一项至今无人能解决的难题，那就是如何靠小型车获得像样的利润。在汽车业，卡车和SUV的利润率介于10%至20% 之间，这意味着许多流行车型的单车利润可达2,500至5,000美元。然而即使是本田Fit和丰田Yaris之类最畅销的微型车，制造商的利润率只有 2%至3%，即300美元左右的单车利润。而新兴市场销售的小型车在提升利润方面卖点更少，生产商的利润则更薄。摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)驻东京分析师Takaki Nakanishi表示，对大部分汽车厂商而言，小型车业务能实现收支平衡就很不错了。
The industry's shift poses a challenge that no car maker has managed yet to meet: how to make decent profits. Trucks and SUVs earn 10% to 20% margins, which for many popular models can mean $2,500 to $5,000 profit per vehicle. Even the best-selling small cars like Honda Motor Co.'s Fit and Toyota's Yaris subcompact earn margins for manufacturers of just 2% to 3% -- about $300 per car. In emerging markets, the cars are sold with fewer profit-boosting features, so car makers earn even less. 'Most car makers are considered to be doing well if they break even on small cars,' says Takaki Nakanishi, a Tokyo-based analyst at J.P. Morgan.
日产汽车虽然靠SUV和高性能跑车获得了丰厚回报，但却作出了一项特别大胆的决定，即面向发展中市场的驾车新手转型为廉价的“入门车”生产商。虽然日产在中国市场远远落后于领先的同行，但它正努力在印度和其他新兴市场迎头赶上。该公司表示，计划最早于2010年在这些市场推出一款售价介于7,000至1万美元的时尚车型，然后再将销售门槛降低到5,000美元。该公司甚至还考虑与一家电动黄包车厂商合资生产售价在3,000美元的车。
Tokyo-based Nissan, 44%-owned by Renault SA of France, has embarked on a particularly aggressive strategy. Nissan, whose fortunes surged on its SUVs and high-performance sports cars, now is trying to reinvent itself as a maker of low-price 'entry cars' aimed at the developing world's hordes of first-time drivers. Far behind the leaders in China, Nissan is trying to forge ahead in India and other emerging markets, where it says it plans to offer a stylish car for $7,000 to $10,000 as early as 2010 and then try to get its starter price down to $5,000. It is even exploring a venture with a maker of electric rickshaws to make a $3,000 car.
而在日产领导这项工作的正是49岁的葡萄牙人塔瓦雷斯。这位热情的主管被同事形容为“血管里都流着汽油”，他喜欢驾驶单座汽车作为一种放松，还在宽敞的办公室内摆满了赛车的照片。他要求日产的工程师从雷诺公司(Renault SA)的那款结构简单、造型四四方方的logan汽车上寻找降低成本的灵感，该款汽车是由雷诺在罗马尼亚的子公司Dacia生产的。他还坚持要求新的廉价车型要具备他称之为高端车拥有的“感性”设计元素。按照他的观点，重要的一点在于不能让入门车形成“新兴市场车型”的印象，而要让购车者感觉自己已加入中产阶级行列。
The 49-year-old Mr. Tavares is leading the charge for Nissan. The intense Portuguese executive, described by colleagues as having 'gasoline in his veins,' races single-seat cars for fun and decorates his sparse office with framed pictures of race cars. For his current mission, he has assigned Nissan engineers to study Renault's boxy, basic Logan model -- produced by the company's Dacia affiliate in Romania -- for cost-cutting inspiration. Yet Mr. Tavares also insists that a new low-cost car retains what he calls the 'emotive' design of more upscale vehicles. It is important that an entry car not be seen as the 'emerging-market car,' Mr. Tavares says, but rather something that makes owners feel like they have entered the middle class.
Global Insight Inc.亚洲汽车业研究负责人阿什文?肖泰(Ashvin Chotai)称，日产将汽车售价压低至7,000美元以下是有争议的。许多人认为其成本结构是不切实际的。但日产的经理们说，塔瓦雷斯一旦定下严格的目标就会坚定地执行下去。日产的产品计划副总裁托马斯?雷恩(Thomas Lane)称，只有当成本控制问题解决了，塔瓦雷斯总会很快将话题转移到质量或车内空间问题上。按照塔瓦雷斯所称，就是要事无巨细都计算在内。在他看来，设计出一种能盈利的小型车是最能考验汽车公司的操练。
Nissan's plan to get below $7,000 is controversial, says Ashvin Chotai, head of Asian auto-industry research at consulting firm Global Insight Inc. 'Lots of people say the cost structure is just not feasible.' But Nissan managers say Mr. Tavares sets tough goals and sticks to them. 'Just when you think cost is under control, he'll flip to another topic and say the quality is a problem or 'I'm concerned about roominess,'' says Thomas Lane, corporate vice president of product planning. Every little thing counts, says Mr. Tavares, who calls building profitable small cars 'the most demanding exercise for an auto company.'
塔瓦雷斯的战略成功与否对日产及其53岁的首席执行长卡洛斯?戈恩(Carlos Ghosn)而言都至关重要。在戈恩1999年接手日产时，这家公司因管理不善和一系列新车型受到冷落而濒临破产，公司的经营利润率一度跌至只有1%。而他上任后主要是靠利润空间大的大型车扭转了日产的局面。然而去年情况发生了变化，导致日产在截至3月31日的财年中出现了7年来的首次利润下滑。
Mr. Tavares's success is crucial for Nissan and 53-year-old CEO Carlos Ghosn. When Mr. Ghosn took over in 1999, the car maker, hampered by management mishaps and a string of unattractive models, was on the brink of bankruptcy with an operating-profit margin of just 1%. Mr. Ghosn's turnaround relied on big models with wide margins. That sputtered in the past year, leading to Nissan's first annual-profit decline in seven years in the year ended March 31.
更有甚者，日产在专心于提高利润率和扩展美国市场期间，却在全球增长最快的市场落于人后。例如在中国，日产比这里的乘用车市场“老大”－－大众汽车 (Volkswagen AG)迟到了近20年，比排名第二的通用汽车(General Motors)也晚了5年。在印度，福特汽车(Ford Motor)已经投产并销售好几款小型汽车，而铃木汽车(Suzuki Motor)和现代汽车(Hyundai Motor)分别拿下了印度汽车销量排名的第一和第二。相比之下，日产去年只在印度推出一款汽车，销量仅有199辆，日产的当务之急是要上其他同行。兼任雷诺公司掌门人的戈恩表示，日产必须在生产低成本汽车方面另辟他径。
What is more, while Nissan focused on boosting profit margins and gaining U.S. market share, it fell behind in the world's fastest-growing markets. Nissan entered China nearly two decades after Volkswagen AG, the market leader there by passenger-car sales, and five years after No. 2 General Motors Corp. Ford Motor Co. already produces and sells several small cars in India, while Suzuki Motor Corp. and Hyundai Motor Co. are Nos. 1 and 2 by sales volume there. Nissan last year offered just one model in India and sold a total of 199 cars, forcing a determined game of catch-up. 'We have to imagine different ways of making low-cost cars,' says Mr. Ghosn, who also heads Renault.
早在1998年，当时主管雷诺制造和工程工作的戈恩派塔瓦雷斯负责雷诺最重要的Megane和Scenic两个小型车品牌。戈恩是出生于巴西的法国人，虽然他与塔瓦雷斯的母语同样是葡萄牙语，但平时一般用法语和英语进行交流。塔瓦雷斯在此前与雷诺的Clio II微型车和其他车型有关的工作中就显示出了对小型车的了解。在他的领导下，Megane和Scenic品牌的汽车配上了更具运动感和符合空气动力学的格栅，以及更富流线型的车尾厢，从而成为雷诺最畅销品牌，其销售收入在雷诺2002年的汽车销售总收入中超过三分之一。戈恩于2004年将塔瓦雷斯派往日产的中型汽车部，他很快就当上了执行副总裁，并成为董事。
In 1998 Mr. Ghosn, then Renault's head of manufacturing and engineering, put Mr. Tavares in charge of Renault's most crucial line of compact cars, the Megane and Scenic series. Mr. Ghosn, a Brazilian-born Frenchman, and Mr. Tavares are both native Portuguese speakers, though they typically communicate in French and English. The engineer had demonstrated his small-car savvy while working on Renault's tiny Clio II subcompact and other models. Under his leadership, the Megane and Scenic got sportier, aerodynamic grills and curvier trunks, and became Renault's most popular line, accounting for more than one-third of the company's auto revenue in 2002. In 2004, Mr. Ghosn sent Mr. Tavares to work on midsize cars at Nissan, where he soon became an executive vice president and a member of the board of directors.
今年4月，就在日产宣布年度利润下滑后，塔瓦雷斯实际上成为公司内继戈恩之后的二号人物。而塔瓦雷斯的判断是，日产应该在新兴市场投入更多精力来提升全球销量。但竞争的升温早已开始。例如丰田汽车在北美、欧洲和日本以外地区的汽车销量达到120万辆时，日产却只有85万辆，差距超过了40%。
This past April, he effectively became Mr. Ghosn's No. 2 in Tokyo -- just after the company reported its profit decline. Mr. Tavares concluded that Nissan should focus a lot more on emerging markets to boost stagnating world-wide sales. But competition was already heating up. Rival Toyota, for instance, outsold Nissan by more than 40% in markets outside North America, Europe and Japan, with 1.2 million sales to Nissan's 850,000.
不过日产拥有一件秘密武器，那就是追求实用的Logan品牌汽车。这种车不求花哨，其生产成本只有雷诺其他小型车的一半。在雷诺公司内部，Logan被称为“征服者”，雷诺正是靠这种车打入了五十多个市场，并在包括伊朗、摩洛哥和哥伦比亚在内的7个国家生产。雷诺的项目总监杰勒德?迪托拜特(Gerard Detourbet)称，此品牌的汽车结构简单，可以在全世界任何一个地方生产。这种方方正正的汽车售价在7,000至1.08万美元之间，是发展中市场最畅销的品牌之一。
Nissan had one secret weapon: the no-frills Logan, packed with little tricks that lowered its production costs to just half of Renault's other small cars. Known within the company as the 'conquistador car,' it has helped Renault enter more than 50 markets and is built in seven countries including Iran, Morocco and Colombia. 'This is a simple car that can be produced everywhere in the world,' says program director Gerard Detourbet. At $7,000 to $10,800, the boxy car is one of the best-selling models in the developing world.
日产的工程师和产品设计师们过去都是设计面向美国和日本的高档车，而现在塔瓦雷斯要求他们研究Logan车的所有特点，甚至具体到每个部件能节省多少成本、运输成本有多少这样的问题。例如，Logan车采用了一种保险杠与格栅为一体的部件，据雷诺公司称，这使车头的成本减少大约一半，不过也造成车头受损时维修费用增加。此外，Logan车的左右后视镜几乎是一样的，挡风玻璃的弧度也要比别的车小。雷诺公司称，这样的设计使零部件的开发和生产更为简单，也可以节省一半左右的成本。
Mr. Tavares urged Nissan engineers and product designers -- used to designing more expensive cars loaded with features for the U.S. and Japan -- to memorize everything about the lowly Logan, down to how costs were trimmed for each part and how much each part costs to ship. For instance, the Logan has a bumper and grill that are one continuous part, which Renault says can cut the cost of the front end by roughly half, though it raises the price of repairing front-end damage. Rear-view mirrors on the right and left side of the car are almost exactly the same, and the windshield is less curved than other models, also cutting costs by about half because the parts are simpler to develop and produce, Renault says.
日产正在将Logan车上的一些标准应用在自己的Tiida小型车上。此款车是日产目前在全球范围最畅销的小型轿车，在美国称为Versa，最低售价为每辆12630美元。塔瓦雷斯去年视察泰国的一家汽车厂时发现，Tiida的车门框外形复杂，以致于一只相同规格的集装箱能装运的Tiida车门数量只有Logan车门的一半。塔瓦雷斯回忆说：生产计划人员称成本较高的Tiida 需要比Logan更复杂的车门，“我当时告诉他们，要认真对待此事。并要他们确保今后设计的部件能够叠装在一起。”
Nissan is applying some of those benchmarks to its pear-shaped Tiida subcompact, currently its best-selling compact car world-wide, and known as the Versa in the U.S., where it starts at $12,630. On a visit to a factory in Thailand last year, Mr. Tavares noticed that the complex shape of the Tiida's door panels meant that half as many Tiida doors as Logan doors could be stacked in a shipping container. His product planners said the costlier Tiida needs more complex doors than the Logan, he recounted, but 'I told them, 'Let's be serious,'' Mr. Tavares says. He told them to start 'making sure, when you design a part, that they can be piled together.'
塔瓦雷斯称，在 Tiida车身上寻找节省成本的突破口有助于生产计划人员将经验应用在新车型的思上。他们把精力放在某种速度计或门把手会增加多少生产成本等细节问题上。日本汽车厂商也在紧跟挖掘小型车内部空间的潮流。日产的工程师在研究如何在不扩大车体和增加车重的情况下，让汽车宽松地容纳5名乘客和他们的行李。
Finding cost cuts on the Tiida has helped product planners apply the change in thinking to new models, he says; they are focusing on details such as how much a certain kind of speedometer or door handle will add to production costs. Japanese auto makers also have been in a heated race to build the roomiest small cars, and Nissan engineers are working on ways to comfortably fit luggage and five passengers without making the car bigger and heavier overall.
塔瓦雷斯对印度市场报以高度期待。这个国家每一千名成年人中只有8人拥有汽车，汽车销量在以每年18%的速度增长。分析师估计，去年在印度售出的130万辆汽车中80%是小型车。
Mr. Tavares hopes for a big payoff in India, where just eight of every 1,000 adults owns a car and car sales are growing by about 18% a year. Analysts estimate about 80% of 1.3 million cars sold last year were small cars.
日产打算与雷诺和印度吉普生产商Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.合资兴建一家汽车厂，面向印度和周边新兴市场生产入门汽车。一部分产品甚至还会出口至欧洲及其他发达国家，不过要先达到更严格的安全和环保标准。日产表示，最终将在印度生产和销售一款售价只有5,000美元的汽车，并正与雷诺及印度的电力黄包车厂商Bajaj Auto Ltd.酝酿推出一种3,000美元的汽车。
Nissan plans to build entry cars for India and nearby emerging markets in a new factory to be jointly owned with Renault and Indian jeep maker Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. Some would eventually be exported to developed markets in Europe and elsewhere, though those would have to comply with tighter safety and environmental standards. Nissan says it could ultimately produce and sell a car in India for as little as $5,000, and it has started working with partners Renault and Indian electric-rickshaw and motorcycle maker Bajaj Auto Ltd. to try to come up with a $3,000 car.
印度的Tata Motors Ltd.此前已打算在明年推出一种“平民汽车”，据称售价只有10万卢比，折合2,500美元。分析师及汽车业同行称，这样的车必须有上规模的销量方能盈利。而该公司计划在发售后的头5年售出200万辆。Tata不愿透露有关该车的太多细节，但该公司某发言人表示，此款汽车为四开门，设有4到5个座位，装有一台660立方厘米的后置发动机，这个尺寸比日本微型车用的发动机还小。
India's Tata Motors Ltd. already plans a 'people's car' next year that it says will cost 100,000 rupees, or about $2,500. Analysts and competitors say massive scale would be needed to turn a profit, and Tata's initial sales target is two million units over the first five years. Tata will give few details about the car, but a spokesman says it will have four doors, four to five seats and a 660 cubic-centimeter rear engine, similar to the size used in 'minicars' sold in Japan.
在印度，售价5,000美元的汽车早已面市，是由铃木汽车与印度合作伙伴Maruti Udyog Ltd.生产的。这两家公司的合资企业已经占据印度汽车市场的一半以上。这种名为Maruti 800的汽车缺乏日产所追求的“酷感”，其原始的设计自1983年面市以来就基本没有变过。该车花了大约10年时间才实现赢利，并最终在九十年代中期取得印度汽车年销量近80%的占有率，不过这款车已过了鼎盛期。去年两家公司的合资企业Maruti Suzuki在印度推出一款Alto汽车，其定位略偏高端，价格高出700美元，而销量是Maruti 800的两倍。
There also has long been a $5,000 car in India, built by Suzuki and its Indian partner, Maruti Udyog Ltd., whose joint venture holds more than half the entire Indian car market. The Maruti 800 lacks the pizzazz Nissan seeks. Its rudimentary design is basically unchanged since it was introduced in 1983. It took around 10 years to become profitable, eventually accounting for nearly 80% of cars sold annually in India by the mid-1990s, but its peak may have passed. Last year, Maruti Suzuki's slightly more upscale new model, the Alto, which sells for $700 more, was twice as popular.
按照日产的设想，先通过低端战略来建立品牌忠诚度，然后，入门车消费者最终能向高利润的日产车型升级，进而最终提升利润水平。相比之下，其竞争对手本田则不想因推出比其售价1.7万美元的“City”小型车更便宜的车型而导致其品牌形像打折。不过该公司倒是可以通过摩托车产品来培育发展中国家的品牌认知度。本田汽车业务首席运营长Takanobu Ito表示，相信消费者愿意为本田的产品支付更多价钱。丰田公司同样在新兴市场推广其卡罗拉(Corolla)品牌。不过该公司承认2.3万美元的售价的确太贵，并考虑调整策略向低成本车发展。按照该公司某发言人的话称，丰田也许是落伍了。
Nissan hopes its down-market strategy will eventually increase profits by building brand loyalty, so entry-car consumers will eventually trade up to a fatter-margin Nissan model. By contrast, rival Honda doesn't want to compromise its brand image by selling a model cheaper than its $17,000 City subcompact in India. Honda can count on its motorcycle sales to build its identity in developing countries. 'We believe people will pay a premium for our cars,' says Takanobu Ito, Honda's chief operating officer of automobile operations. Likewise, Toyota pushes its Corolla in emerging markets. But it acknowledges that its $23,000 price tag is too high, and it is looking at changing tack with a low-cost car. 'Maybe we're behind' on that trend, says a company spokesman.
日产的产品也在向低成本方向发展，并以市场当地供应商取代长期合作的本国供应商。今年该公司将泰国汽车厂采用的进口日本零配件比例由本已很低的三成削减至一成。该公司还在增加本地员工和投入的规模，而不再依靠日本的设计师和工程师。日产和雷诺计划2008年处在印度的钦奈合作成立一家业务中心。塔瓦雷斯表示，希望投入本地化能为每个国家的消费者提供想要的功能，从而协助设计人员削减成本、提升销量。
Nissan also is moving production to low-cost areas and using more local suppliers in place of longtime Japanese suppliers. This year at its Thailand plant, Nissan cut its parts imported from Japan to 10% from an already-low 30%. It also is soliciting more local staff and input instead of relying on designers and engineers in Japan: Nissan and Renault plan a joint business center in Chennai, India, in early 2008. Mr. Tavares says he hopes local input will help designers cut costs and generate sales by offering only features consumers want in each country.
在日产最近就印度市场的规划问题召开的战略会议上，管理层果断决定将印度打造成其全球性的小型车中枢。塔瓦雷斯表示，当日产内部有人对他的计划提出异议时，他会提醒他们雷诺在Logan车上的先例。塔瓦雷斯称，每当需要在成本上取得突破时，总是会有人站出来说这是不可能的。
At a recent corporate-strategy meeting to discuss the company's plans in India, Nissan executives spoke determinedly about turning India into a global small-car hub. But when people within Nissan challenge Mr. Tavares on his plans, he says he reminds them what Renault did with the Logan. 'Any time you need to achieve a cost breakthrough, people will tell you that it's not possible,' Mr. Tavares says.
Amy Chozick
http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20071023/ffe170626.asp
