找寻中国石油企业的佼佼者

China's Oil Refiners Struggle

2008年05月09日11:10

全球油价飙升令中国的综合性石油巨头深受打击。政府稳定油价、让国内消费者免受能源成本上涨冲击的政策大大降低了这些企业的盈利能力。然而对于主要从事石油勘探业务的中国公司，其股票却可能对投资者仍具有吸引力。

SURGING global oil prices are bleeding China's integrated oil giants as they get squeezed by government policies to insulate the nation's consumers from higher energy costs. But shares in Chinese companies that specialize in exploring for oil may still be attractive to investors.

中国有两家从事原油生产和成品油销售的大型综合性石油公司：中国石油天然气股份有限公司(Petrochina Co.)和中国石油化工股份有限公司(China Petroleum & Chemical)。它们都遭受了国际原油价格突破每桶120美元和国内成品油价格仍被限制在低得多的水平带来的双重打击。中国的石油公司本质上都由国家控制，因此尽管出现亏损，也要面临保障国内市场供应的政治压力。

China has two big integrated oil companies that both produce oil and sell refined fuels: PetroChina and China Petroleum & Chemical, or Sinopec. They are feeling the pinch, caught between international crude prices breaching $120 a barrel and domestic fuel prices capped at much lower levels. China's oil companies are ultimately controlled by the state and face political pressure to keep domestic markets supplied despite losses.

油价持续上涨对中国石化的利润冲击尤其大。这家中国最大的成品油销售企业有72%的石油都要从外部购买，这使其非常容易受到国家政策的影响，比如，国家政策就不允许该公司以更高的价格向国外销售成品油。

The sustained rise in oil prices has been especially hard on the bottom line of Sinopec, China's biggest seller of fuel. Sinopec has to buy 72% of the oil it refines from other producers, leaving it dangerously exposed to state policies. And state policies prevent it from selling fuel for a higher price abroad.

在2008年第一季度，中国石化的净利润比上年同期下降了69%，是2000年首次公开募股(IPO)以来跌幅最大的一次。如果不是获得了人民币73亿元（约合10.4亿美元）的政府补贴，中国石化今年1至3月份甚至会出现亏损。

In the first quarter of 2008, Sinopec's net profit plunged 69% from a year earlier -- its biggest decline since doing an initial public offering in 2000. Sinopec would have posted a loss for the January-March period if not for a 7.3 billion yuan ($1.04 billion) government subsidy.

里昂证券亚太市场(CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets)能源研究部主管关荣乐(Gordon Kwan)在4月份将中国石化的评级下调为卖出，将其12个月目标股价定为6港元。中国石化在香港上市的H股周四下跌3.3%，收于7.87港元（约合1.01美元），今年以来累计下跌了33%。中国石化还有美国存托凭证和A股分别在美国和上海证交所上市。

Gordon Kwan, head of energy research at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, downgraded Sinopec to a sell in April with a 12-month target price of HK$6. Hong Kong shares of Sinopec, which also is listed in Shanghai and has American depositary receipts, fell 3.3% Thursday to HK$7.87 (US$1.01). The stock is down 33% this year.

中国石油是中国原油产量最高的石油企业。该公司的情况稍好一些，第一季度的净利润下降了31%，中国石油所开采原油主要供应给旗下的炼油厂，它不需从外部大量购买原油。该公司也面临着保障国内市场供应的政治压力，尽管这意味着经济损失。

PetroChina, China's biggest oil producer by volume, fared little better, with first-quarter net profit tumbling 31% -- even though it pumps most of the oil it sells, rather than having to buy it from other producers. It is also under political pressure to keep domestic markets supplied, even if it means losing money.

在中国石油4月份公布业绩后，高盛集团(Goldman Sachs)能源分析师许利源(Kevin Koh)将该公司股票的评级下调为卖出，原因是炼油损失扩大。他将该股的12个月目标价从14.10港元下调到了10.70港元。周四，中国石油下跌0.28港元，收于11.18港元。2008年迄今，该股已下跌了20%。

After PetroChina's earnings announcement in April, Kevin Koh, an energy analyst at Goldman Sachs, downgraded the stock to a sell because of widening refining losses. He cut his 12-month target price to HK$10.70 from HK$14.10. On Thursday, PetroChina shares dropped 28 Hong Kong cents, or 2.4%, to HK$11.18. They have fallen 20% in 2008.

不过，中国没有涉足炼油或成品油零售业务的石油生产和勘探公司却颇具吸引力，因为它们受国内能源政策的影响较小。

Still, China-based oil production and exploration companies that aren't involved in refining or retailing fuel are appealing because they are less exposed to domestic energy policy.

中国最大的海上石油生产商中国海洋石油总公司(Cnooc)就是其中的上佳选择。该公司没有披露季度净利润，但曾表示第一季度的收入比去年同期增长了61%。中海油是高盛在亚洲的首选股票之一，许利源对该股的12个月价格预期为16.50港元。中海油周四上涨0.14港元，收于14.02港元，今年以来累计上涨了5.6%。

A top pick is Cnooc, China's main offshore-oil producer. It doesn't disclose quarterly net profit, but it has said first-quarter revenue rose 61% from a year earlier. Cnooc is one of Goldman's top Asia picks, and Mr. Koh has a 12-month target of HK$16.50. Shares of Cnooc gained 14 Hong Kong cents, or 1%, to HK$14.02 Thursday and are up 5.6% this year.

去年，中海油的一些生产目标没有完成，原因之一在于恶劣的天气，比如台风就曾给一个海上油田造成了损失。但今年，该公司的油气产量有望比2007年增长15%。

Last year, Cnooc had trouble hitting some of its production targets, partly because of bad weather such as a typhoon that damaged an oil field. But this year, the company looks on track to increase oil and gas output 15% from 2007.

在经历了一段时间的蛰伏后，中海油似乎又计划重启海外收购，包括可能进入墨西哥湾，这也将是中海油自2005年在竞购加州联合石油公司(Unocal Corp)的过程中输给雪佛龙(Chevron Corp.)后首次将目光瞄向了美国。

After a period of looking inward, Cnooc appears poised to resume overseas acquisitions, including a possible foray into the Gulf of Mexico, which would be its first U.S. approach since a 2005 losing battle with Chevron Corp. for California producer Unocal Corp.

花旗集团(Citigroup)分析师康宁汉(Graham Cunningham)在近期的研究报告中写道，鉴于极佳的增长前景，中海油具备了良好的投资价值。

Cnooc offers 'good value considering the excellent growth outlook,' analyst Graham Cunningham of Citigroup wrote in a recent note.

东方证券(Orient Securities)驻上海分析师王晶说，中海油的情况与另两家石油公司有很大不同，投资者因此应对其保持乐观。她还感觉中国石化和中国石油在上海市场上市的A股目前已被低估。

Wang Jing, an analyst for Orient Securities in Shanghai, says Cnooc's situation 'is very different from the other two oil companies. Therefore, investors should be optimistic about it.' She also feels that the Shanghai-listed shares of Sinopec and PetroChina are now undervalued.

另一家在中国对石油的巨大需求中处于有利位置、同时又没有政府价格控制负担的公司是中信资源(Citic Resources Holdings)，该公司的主要资产是在哈萨克斯坦的一个油田。随着中信资源投入资金对其进行升级改造，这个油田的产量预计将大大增加。高盛的许利源说，原油价格每上涨1美元，中信资源的净利润就会增长1.8%。高盛将该公司股票的评级定为买进，并在本月将其12个月目标价从5.25港元上调至6.20港元。周四，该股上涨0.17港元，收于4.07港元。

Another company well-positioned to take advantage of China's oil demand without the burden of continued government price caps is Citic Resources Holdings, whose primary asset is an oil field in Kazakhstan. Production is expected to increase sharply as the company invests in upgrades. Goldman's Mr. Koh says a $1 increase in the price of oil could raise Citic Resources' net profit 1.8%. Goldman, which has a 'buy' rating on the stock, this month raised its 12-month target to HK$6.20 from HK$5.25. On Thursday, the shares gained 17 Hong Kong cents to HK$4.07.

这些预测面临的主要风险将是中国能源政策的突然改变。这种可能性不大，因为政府目前已经担心通胀的加剧正让消费者叫苦不迭。电力、柴油和汽油的价格都受到了控制。瑞银(UBS)经济学家乔纳森?安德森(Jonathan Anderson)认为，政府在一段时期内将继续执行这一政策，因为它仍负担得起为成品油和电力企业的损失提供补贴。

The main risk to these predictions would be a sudden change in China's energy policy. That seems unlikely because the government is already concerned that rising inflation is hurting consumers. Electricity, diesel and gasoline prices have all been held in check. UBS economist Jonathan Anderson believes the government will continue this policy for a while because it can still afford to subsidize some losses of fuel and power producers.

政府还采取了其他一些措施以缓解石油公司的压力。今年4月，财政部宣布对进口柴油和汽油实行增值税先征后返，以鼓励成品油进口，避免重现去年成品油短缺的局面。

The government has taken some other measures to try to ease oil companies' pain. In April, the Ministry of Finance announced some refunds on value-added tax for diesel and gasoline imports in order to encourage more fuel imports and prevent a repeat of last year's shortfall.

不过，一些分析师表示，真正需要做的事情是改变石油暴利税的起征点。分析师说，应将现行的油价超过每桶40美元即征暴利税至少调整为油价超过每桶60美元再行征收，因为石油生产的成本已经提高，长期石油价格也在走高。业内观察人士指出，这一调整最早有可能在今年第三季度实施。调整暴利税会提高石油公司的利润率，同时又不会造成成品油零售价的上涨。

However, some analysts say that what is really needed is a change in the special oil income levy, or windfall-profits tax, a graduated tax on oil profits with a minimum threshold of $40 a barrel. Analysts say the threshold should be raised to $60 or higher because oil production costs have risen, and long-term oil prices are also higher. Industry observers say such a change could come as early as the third quarter of this year. Adjusting that tax could fatten profit margins without the need to raise fuel prices on consumers.

但也有分析师对短期内调整暴利税持怀疑态度。中国的石油公司目前仍扮演着一半是公用事业公司、一半是西方式上市公司的尴尬角色。

But other analysts doubt changes will come soon. China's oil companies are still in an awkward stage where they are part public utility, part Western-style listed company.

尽管整个石油行业都面临着石油开采和勘探难度加大带来的成本上升问题，但中国企业还要面对政府有时将社会目标置于公司盈利之上的额外风险。这可能令判断公司价值成为一个棘手的问题。

While the entire oil industry faces challenges stemming from rising costs of harder-to-produce and -find oil fields, the Chinese face the added risk of government owners that sometimes put social goals ahead of the bottom line. That can make judging companies' value a tricky proposition.

高盛的许利源在周二的研究报告中写道：我们认为，预测中国石油和中国石化的收益无异于一门艺术，因为炼油亏损的扩大会带来频繁的政策调整。

'We believe forecasting PetroChina and Sinopec's earnings has become an art form as widening refining losses have precipitated frequent policy adjustments,' Mr. Koh wrote Tuesday in a note.

Shai Oster

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080509/ahr112534.asp

油价年内或飙升至每桶150美元

Some See Oil At $150 This Year

2008年05月07日16:41

越来越多的石油市场观察人士说，因油价不断飙升而恼火的美国选民今夏可能会面临更为糟糕的状况，因为从尼日利亚动乱到俄罗斯石油产量下滑等诸多不利因素可能会推动基准原油价格突破每桶150美元。

A growing number of oil-market watchers say voters riled by soaring fuel costs may face far worse this summer, as factors ranging from unrest in Nigeria to slumping production in Russia could shove benchmark oil prices over $150 a barrel.

周二，美国基准原油期货价格再创新高，纽约商交所原油期货结算价报121.84美元。该交易所原油期货价格今年迄今已累计上涨27%，这一价位较通胀因素调整后的1980年4月所创前历史高点超出了17%。目前油价已较上年同期上涨了96%。

U.S. benchmark crude notched another record Tuesday, settling at $121.84 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Nymex crude oil so far this year is up 27% and is now 17% above its previous inflation-adjusted record in April 1980. It is up 96% from a year ago.

眼下油价势不可挡的飙升令一些分析师发布了更为悲观的价格前景预期。曾经预见到当前涨势的高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)指出，全球市场可能最早在今年10月时就会面临油价的暴涨，届时油价将从眼下稍高于每桶120美元的水平跃升至150-200美元区间。

Oil's seemingly unstoppable surge has led some analysts to issue gloomier price outlooks. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which predicted the latest run-up, says the world may face a 'super-spike' in which crude ranges from $150 to $200 a barrel as early as October, up from just over $120 now.

达拉斯联邦储备银行(Dallas Federal Reserve Bank)能源经济学家斯蒂芬?布朗(Stephen Brown)说，这股涨势可能会把油价推至史无前例的高位，甚至超出美国内战刚结束时的油价水平。他估计，油价保持在每桶150美元的水平上可能会在第一年内吞噬美国约1.8%的经济产值，并在第二年进一步抵消1.5%。而美国第一季度折合成年率的经济增速仅为0.6%。

'That would put oil at unprecedented price levels, even going back to just after the Civil War,' said Stephen Brown, an energy economist at the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank. A sustained price of $150 a barrel, he estimates, would shave around 1.8% off U.S. economic output in the first year, and a further 1.5% in the second year. The U.S. economy in the first quarter grew at an anemic 0.6% annual pace.

在加油站，原油涨至每桶150美元时就意味着汽油价格将突破每加仑4.50美元，这将为美国的汽车生产商、航空公司以及公用事业带来更多压力。这也有可能给华盛顿政界人士的争论火上浇油。在4月份，普通汽油的均价为每加仑3.46美元。

At the pump, $150 oil translates into gasoline prices of more than $4.50 a gallon, putting further strain on U.S. auto makers, airlines and utilities. It would also stoke the political debate in Washington. Regular grade gasoline in April averaged $3.46 a gallon.

石油行业观察人士说，大多数迹象表明油价将持续上涨。尽管有人称，是投机者为对冲美元的持续走软而推动油价走高，但是自4月第一周以来，美元兑欧元已累计升值大约2%，同期油价仍然上涨了10%。

Oil watchers say most signs point toward a continued increase in prices. Despite talk that speculators have driven up crude prices as a hedge against the slumping dollar, oil has rallied 10% since the first week in April while the dollar has risen about 2% against the euro.

更加不同寻常的是，油价仍能在美国市场需求大幅下降的情况下保持上涨势头。2月份美国石油需求降至每日1,970万桶，较2007年日均需求水平低100万桶。美国政府面向消费者推出的1,520亿美元的经济增长刺激计划或会推高该国石油需求，进而可能令全球石油市场供不应求的局面雪上加霜。

Even more unusual is that oil has maintained its upward momentum in the face of sharply diminished U.S. demand, which fell in February to 19.7 million barrels a day. That was down a million barrels a day from the 2007 average. An increase in U.S. demand, perhaps driven by the $152 billion in government stimulus payments to consumers, could crimp an already tight international oil market.

分析人士称，能够压低油价的主要因素有全球石油需求骤减，或者国际投资者从大宗商品市场突然撤离等。

The main factors that could send prices down, analysts say, would be a sharp downturn in global oil demand or some sudden flight from commodities among international investors.

Cambridge Energy Research Associates的董事长丹尼尔?尤金(Daniel Yergin)说，现在不是一只妖怪被放出了瓶子，而是100只妖怪被放了出来。尤金一贯以油价下跌的乐观预期而闻名，如今他的公司表示，油价在年内可能会上涨至每桶150美元。

'It's not that the genie is out of the bottle -- it's that 100 genies are out of the bottle,' said Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates. Normally known for optimistic forecasts of lowering oil prices, Mr. Yergin's firm now says the price could rise to $150 a barrel this year.

尤金说，全球石油闲置产能不断降低仍是油价高企的最主要原因之一。根据大多数分析师的预测，眼下全球的原油安全缓冲──即在危急关头可以迅速被开采出来的原油量──大约是每日200万桶。这仅仅是全球日需求量的2.3%，而且几乎所有缓冲储备都集中在一个国家──沙特阿拉伯，这使得全世界石油市场很容易受到政治或其他问题的冲击。

The world's diminished spare production capacity remains the strongest single catalyst for high prices, Mr. Yergin says. The world's safety cushion -- the amount of readily available oil that could be pumped in a moment of crisis -- is now around two million barrels a day, according to most estimates. That's just 2.3% of daily demand, and nearly all of the safety cushion is in one country, Saudi Arabia. Everyone else is pretty much pumping all they can, which makes the world vulnerable to political or other shocks.

随着全球各大产油国不断传出令人沮丧的消息，石油市场也变得更易波动。石油输出国组织(Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, 简称：欧佩克)的老牌成员印度尼西亚近日表示，它或许会在明年退出欧佩克，因为它的石油日产量不断下滑，已经降至20世纪90年代初顶峰时期（日产量170万桶）的一半以下。印度尼西亚自2004年以来一直是石油净进口国。

The oil market has become all the more skittish amid a raft of gloomy news from big oil producers. Indonesia, a longtime member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, says it may pull out of the cartel next year as its production continues to fall to less than half its peak of 1.7 million barrels a day in the early 1990s. Indonesia has been a net oil importer since 2004.

在尼日利亚，能源设施不断遭到武装袭击，石油工人的罢工上周才刚刚结束，这也进一步表明该国被称为“极不可靠的石油供应国”的确名副其实。各种破坏行动已经使该国至少四分之一的有效产能（每日约250万桶）被迫关闭。

In Nigeria, a series of militant attacks on energy infrastructure and an oil workers' strike that ended last week have added to the country's reputation as one of the most unreliable oil suppliers. Sabotage has shut down at least one quarter of Nigeria's effective pumping capacity of 2.5 million barrels a day.

一些非欧佩克成员的产油国也令石油市场失望不已，比如，墨西哥和俄罗斯等国投资不足以及油田老化的状况制约了原油产量。

The world oil market has also learned to be disappointed with non-OPEC producers, as underinvestment and aging oil fields in places such as Mexico and Russia have crimped crude production.

非欧佩克成员国的石油产量今年或许会增加约1%，低于很多分析师的预期。总部位于巴黎的国际能源署(International Energy Agency)今年4月再次调低了对非欧佩克成员国今年石油供应的前景预期，这个由石油消费国提供资金支持的组织把非欧佩克成员国石油日产量的预期下调了85,000桶，至5,050万桶。

Non-OPEC production may grow this year by about 1%, below many analysts' expectations. The Paris-based International Energy Agency, funded by consuming nations, in April again cut its 2008 non-OPEC supply outlook for the year, this time by 85,000 barrels a day to 50.5 million barrels a day.

在过去八个月中，欧佩克一直维持其产量目标不变，而且拒绝任何提高供应量的要求，即使原油价格自该机构去年9月提高产量以来已经上涨了54%。欧佩克当前最大的石油供应国沙特阿拉伯最近清楚地暗示，该国并无打算在2009年之后再增加产能。

OPEC has kept its production target unchanged for eight months and has rebuffed calls for more supply even though crude prices have increased 54% since the 13-nation group last raised its production target at a meeting in September. Saudi Arabia, the cartel's largest supplier by far, has sent strong signals recently that it doesn't see adding additional production capacity beyond 2009.

高盛在发给客户的一份报告中表示，该行认为眼下的能源危机或许正在走向顶点，因供应增速不足的问题正变得更加明显。该行称，原油平均价格可能会在明年触及每桶200美元，而这种预测在几个月前听来还显得有点 谱。

'We believe that the current energy crisis may be coming to a head, as a lack of adequate supply growth is becoming apparent,' Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients. The bank said oil could hit an average of $200 a barrel next year, a prediction that would have seemed outlandish just months ago.

美国能源部(U.S. Energy Department)现预测原油均价将在今年达到每桶109美元，较上月的预期提高了9美元。美国政府也提高了对汽油价格的预期，表示汽油均价将在6月触顶，达到每加仑3.73美元，较此前的预期高0.13美元。

The U.S. Energy Department now predicts that oil will average $109 a barrel this year, raising its forecast by $9 from last month. The government also raised its prediction for gasoline prices, saying they should peak at an average of $3.73 a gallon on average in June, 13 cents higher than its previous forecast.

这样的预期在三位美国总统竞选候选人中引发了激烈的论战。希拉里?克林顿(Hillary Clinton)和约翰?麦凯恩(John McCain)要求在夏季停收汽油税，以缓解消费者的压力。而巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)反对这个提议，认为这只是治标不治本。

Such forecasts have sparked a debate among the three major presidential candidates, with Sens. Hillary Clinton and John McCain calling for a gas-tax holiday over the summer to ease the pain for consumers. Sen. Barack Obama opposes the idea, calling it a quick fix that doesn't address the real problem.

Neil King Jr. / Spencer Swartz

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080507/ecb165644.asp

As Gas Costs Soar, Buyers Flock to Small Cars

By BILL VLASIC
Published: May 2, 2008

DETROIT — Soaring gas prices have turned the steady migration by Americans to smaller cars into a stampede.

In what industry analysts are calling a first, about one in five vehicles sold in the United States was a compact or subcompact car during April, based on monthly sales data released Thursday. Almost a decade ago, when sport utility vehicles were at their peak of popularity, only one in every eight vehicles sold was a small car.

The switch to smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles has been building in recent years, but has accelerated recently with the advent of $3.50-a-gallon gas. At the same time, sales of pickup trucks and large sport utility vehicles have dropped sharply.

In another first, fuel-sipping four-cylinder engines surpassed six-cylinder models in popularity in April.

“It’s easily the most dramatic segment shift I have witnessed in the market in my 31 years here,” said George Pipas, chief sales analyst for the Ford Motor Company.

The trend toward smaller and lighter vehicles with better mileage is a blow to Detroit automakers, which offer fewer such models than Asian carmakers like Toyota and Honda. Moreover, the decline of S.U.V.’s and pickups has curtailed the biggest source of profits for General Motors, Ford and Chrysler.

Once considered an unattractive and cheap alternative to large cars and S.U.V.’s, compacts have become the new star of the showroom at a time when overall industry sales are falling.

Sales of Toyota’s subcompact Yaris increased 46 percent, and Honda’s tiny Fit had a record month. Ford’s compact Focus model jumped 32 percent in April from a year earlier. All those models are rated at more than 30 miles per gallon for highway driving.

Dave Strom of South Boston, Va., recently bought a tiny Smart ForTwo Passion Coupe, made by Daimler, the German automaker.

Mr. Strom also owns a pickup truck, which he uses mainly to haul his boat. When he runs errands, he drives his Smart, which he says is getting 45 miles a gallon.

“I had to smile the other day when I filled my tank for $18 and the guy next to me had a Ford Explorer and the pump was clicking past $80,” said Mr. Strom, a 66-year-old retired manager of a Chevrolet dealership.

Previous spikes in sales of smaller cars were often a result of consumers trading down during tough economic conditions or gas-price increases. When the economy improved or fuel prices dropped again — as they did after the oil-price shocks in the 1970s eased — buyers invariably went back to bigger vehicles.

But with oil prices expected to remain high for years, auto industry executives are seeing a turning point.

“The era of the truck-based large S.U.V.’s is over,” said Michael Jackson, chief executive of AutoNation, the nation’s largest auto retailer.

Sales of traditional S.U.V.’s are down more than 25 percent this year. In April, for example, sales of G.M.’s Chevrolet Tahoe fell 35 percent.

Full-size pickup sales have fallen more than 15 percent this year, with Ford’s industry-leading F-Series pickup dropping 27 percent in April alone. Sales of pickups, though, are expected to strengthen with the economy, because of their use as commercial vehicles.

The rise in sales of more fuel-efficient vehicles occurred during one of the industry’s worst months in more than a decade. For the month, G.M. sales dropped 23 percent and Ford slid 19 percent, while Toyota fell by 5 percent. The figures were adjusted for the fact that this April had two more selling days than a year ago.

Another bright spot in the numbers were sales of so-called small crossovers — which look like little S.U.V.’s and are based on car underpinnings.

Like small cars, they also accounted for about 20 percent of the total industry sales for the month, according to the research firm J. D. Power & Associates.

The analysis by J. D. Power also showed that 42 percent of all vehicles sold in April were equipped with four-cylinder engines, compared with 38 percent for six-cylinder engines.

How the downsizing of America’s vehicle fleet will affect fuel consumption is still largely unknown. When gas prices rise, as they are now, many drivers simply drive less to save money.

But there are some indications that the trend toward smaller vehicles will reduce the nation’s fuel use. In California, motorists bought 4 percent less gasoline in January than they did the year before, a drop of more than 58 million gallons, according to the Oil Price Information Service.

“That is an incredible year-over-year drop,” said Tom Kloza, the organization’s chief oil analyst. “Some of it clearly has to do with changes in the vehicle fleet.”

Small cars have traditionally been favorites of young, first-time buyers attracted by their low prices. But sales have been creeping up since 2005, particularly among older baby-boomers whose children have grown.

Crossover vehicles have also drawn in empty-nesters who have less need for a large car, S.U.V. or minivan.

“The first of the baby boomers turned 62 this year, and they’ve started downsizing,” Mr. Pipas of Ford said.

The latest crop of small cars and crossovers also feature the creature comforts and safety features once found only in more expensive models.

Factor in the economic benefits of fuel-efficient engines, and small cars have not only become practical, but trendy as well.

“This shift appears to be a permanent situation,” said Jesse Toprak, chief industry analyst for the auto information Web site Edmunds.com. “These new products have become more fashionable, just like small, fuel-efficient cars are in Europe.”

The low prices on small cars are also luring consumers who are tightening their belts in an economic downturn.

“We wanted to have good fuel economy, but we were equally concerned about the price of the car,” said John Shelby of Phoenix, who recently purchased a Honda Fit for $15,600.

Smaller vehicles, though, mean smaller profit margins for automakers. The drop in pickup sales, because of the slowdown in the housing and construction industries, has been particularly painful for Detroit’s Big Three.

“It’s just a difficult truck market for everybody, ourselves included,” said Mark LaNeve, G.M.’s head of North American sales. “By and large, people are just staying out of that market.”

Automakers ignore the move to smaller vehicles at their own peril. G.M., for example, is playing catch-up by introducing a dozen new cars and crossovers in the next few model years.

With federal fuel-economy regulations increasing to 31.6 miles per gallon by 2015, car companies have another incentive to speed development of smaller vehicles.

“If you look at where the automakers are putting their resources into now, just about everything is going into small cars,” said Tom Libby, senior market analyst for J. D. Power.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/02/business/02auto.html?_r=1&th=&emc=th&pagewanted=all&oref=slogin

通用汽车第一财季净亏损32.5亿美元

2008年05月01日07:23

通用汽车公司(General Motors Corp.)周三表示，第一财政季度净亏损32.5亿美元，合每股亏损5.74美元；上年同期实现净利润6,200万美元，合每股收益11美分。

该公司表示，当季收入为427亿美元，低于上年同期的434亿美元。

通用汽车称，剔除支出项目，当季调整后亏损3.5亿美元，合每股亏损62美分；上年同期持续经营业务调整后亏损1,000万美元，合每股亏损1美分。

接受汤姆森-路透(Thomson Reuters)调查的分析师此前平均预计，该公司当季每股亏损1.60美元。分析师的预期通常不包括支出。

特殊项目对当季业绩共产生了29亿美元的不利影响。

通用汽车表示，全球汽车业务调整后的税前利润从上年同期的2.31亿美元升至3.92亿美元。

当季北美汽车业务调整后的税前亏损为6.11亿美元，上年同期为2.69亿美元。

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080430/MKT213150.asp

埃克森美孚第一财季净利润增长17%

2008年05月02日07:13

埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil Corp.)第一财政季度净利润增长17%，至108.9亿美元，合每股收益2.03美元，上年同期实现净利润92.8亿美元，合每股收益1.62美元，当季净利润上升主要受油价飙升及股票回购计划提振。

接受汤姆森-路透(Thomson Reuters)调查的分析师此前平均预计，该公司当季每股收益2.14美元。分析师的预期通常不包括特殊项目。

埃克森美孚还表示，当季收入从上年同期的872.2亿美元升至1,168.5亿美元。

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080501/MKT222610.asp

通用被丰田挤下销量第一的宝座

GM Sales Fall; Toyota Now No. 1

2008年04月24日14:15

通用汽车公司(General Motors Corp.)第一季度全球汽车销量略有下降，因北美市场销量的大幅下滑抵消了全球其他市场销量的持续增长。

General Motors Corp.'s global vehicle sales fell slightly in the first quarter as a big drop in North America negated continued growth in other regions of the world.

与此同时，丰田汽车公司(Toyota Motor Corp.)却实现了全球销量的增长。丰田汽车宣布今年第一季度销量较上年同期增长了2.7%，至241万辆。经过这番此消彼长，丰田汽车将通用汽车挤下了销量头把交椅的宝座。

GM's decline came as Toyota Motor Corp. reported global vehicle sales in the same period rose 2.7% to 2.41 million, edging the company past GM as the world's largest auto maker.

2007年第一季度时丰田汽车的销量也一度超过通用汽车，但截至年底时，通用汽车仍以微弱优势胜出。

In 2007, Toyota outsold GM in the first quarter, but at the end of the year, GM held the lead by a tiny margin.

通用汽车表示，今年第一季度共销售汽车225万辆，较上年同期减少了0.6%。在公司一直全力避免继续产生巨额亏损的北美市场，销量减少了10%，而在拉美、非洲及中东市场的销量则增长了20%，在亚洲和欧洲的销量也分别增长了6%和3%。

GM said it sold 2.25 million vehicles in the first three months of the year, down 0.6% from the first quarter of 2007. Sales in North America, where GM is struggling to stop substantial losses, declined 10%, while sales rose 6% in Asia, 20% in Latin America, Africa and the Middle East and 3% in Europe.

在过去长达76年的时间里，通用汽车一直是全球销量最大的汽车生产商。周三发布的销量数据显示，该公司在持续扩张且利润颇丰的豪华车市场的表现不尽人意。市场也预计再过大约一周时间出炉的公司第一财季业绩情况也将较为疲弱。

GM has been the world's largest auto maker by sales volume for the past 76 years. Its 2008 first-quarter sales total, which was released about a week before the company is expected to report weak first-quarter earnings, revealed that the auto maker is sputtering in a growing and highly profitable segment: luxury vehicles.

通用旗下有三个豪华车品牌：凯迪拉克(Cadillac)、悍马(Hummer)和萨博(Saab)。公司第一季度共交付了93,843辆豪华车，较上年同期减少6%。虽然国际市场对豪华车的需求有所增长，而且通用汽车也有意在许多发展中国家扩大业务，但这第一季度的销售业绩仍不理想。

GM sells three luxury brands: Cadillac, Hummer and Saab. During the first quarter, the company delivered 93,843 luxury vehicles, or 6% fewer than in the same period in 2007. This comes despite a growing appetite for luxury vehicles in international markets, including many developing countries where GM is looking to lead the way.

许多汽车厂家都用知名豪华车品牌在汽车市场上赚取高额利润。以丰田为例，它为自己的品牌开发了很多车型，并给它们加装了丰富的功能以及精妙的设计，并将这些车型都归入豪华车雷克萨斯(Lexus)系列。

Many auto makers have used strong luxury brands to bank big profits in automotive operations. Toyota, for instance, takes many vehicles it develops for its Toyota brand and dresses them up with features and refined designs to fit them into the Lexus portfolio.

通用汽车销售分析经理迈克?迪吉奥瓦尼(Mike DiGiovanni)在一个电话会议上表示，公司正在调整其豪华车产品系列，以更好地满足全球不同市场中买家的需求。

During a conference call, GM sales-analysis manager Mike DiGiovanni said the company is remodeling its portfolio to better meet demands of luxury buyers in an array of global markets.

通用汽车仍在努力实现让北美业务扭亏为盈的计划。公司在北美的零售市场（通过经销商向个人售车）中仍能保持份额，但卡车和运动型多用途车(SUV)等高利润率产品的销售出现了大幅下降。

GM is struggling in its attempt to turn around core North American operations. It has maintained its share of U.S. retail sales, or cars sold to individuals through dealerships, but sales of high-margin products such as trucks and sports-utility vehicles have plummeted.

迪吉奥瓦尼表示，通用汽车在四大市场中的三个市场都创下了销售纪录，但在北美、特别是美国市场仍面临着挑战。

'We are setting records in three of our four regions,' Mr. DiGiovanni said. 'North America, and more specifically the U.S. market, continues to be challenging.'

尽管如此，通用仍坚持认为今年下半年美国市场将会回暖。迪吉奥瓦尼称第一季度美国工业车辆的销售情况要好于预期。

Regardless, GM is sticking with its forecast for a U.S. recovery in the second half of 2008. Mr. DiGiovanni said first-quarter U.S. industry vehicle sales came in better than expected.

居高不下的油价和不断下降的房产价值，以及对信用状况的担心均令美国消费者承受压力。由于油价超出通用汽车此前的预期，迪吉奥瓦尼预计第二季度北美市场工业车辆的销售将出现下滑。

High fuel prices, lower home values and concerns about credit availability have pressured U.S. consumers. Fuel prices are higher than GM had expected, leading Mr. DiGiovanni to speculate that second-quarter North American industry sales might decline.

另一个隐患是新一轮的工人抗议活动。在通用汽车一家位于密歇根州生产畅销的混合型多用途车(CUV)的工厂中，对一份内部协议深感不满的工人正在进行罢工。在堪萨斯州一家生产新款雪佛兰(Chevrolet) Malibu车的工厂中，工会也警告资方他们可能会罢工。

Another potential problem is a new round of labor strife. Workers at a Michigan plant building hot-selling crossover utility vehicles are on strike over a local factory agreement. A union local at a Kansas plant that builds the newly redesigned Chevrolet Malibu has warned the auto maker it may strike.

通用汽车主要供应商American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc.持续了近两个月的罢工事件已令这家汽车企业深感头疼，小型货车和SUV的生产也随之下降。迪吉奥瓦尼称Axle的罢工影响了公司的部分批量销售业务，涉及车辆约有7,000至10,000辆。

GM already is dealing with a nearly two-month-old strike at supplier American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc., which has cut into pickup truck and SUV production. Mr. DiGiovanni said the American Axle strike has cost GM some fleet sales, which amount to about 7,000 to 10,000 vehicles.

迪吉奥瓦尼表示，虽然密歇根州CUV工厂的罢工还没有影响销售，但这一点确实令人担心。他指出通用CUV的库存量不大，小型货车和SUV的库存较多。

While the strike at the crossover-vehicle plant in Delta Township, Mich., hasn't cost GM any sales yet, it is a concern, he said. GM doesn't have a large inventory of crossover vehicles; it does with pickups and SUVs.

Terry Kosdrosky / John D. Stoll

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080424/ffe144205.asp

中国节能轿车市场发展前路漫漫

In China, Hybrids Prove To Be A Tough Sell

2008年04月21日14:21

全球汽车厂家将在本周的北京汽车展上纷纷展现自己最新的环保技术，其中包括混合动力发动机、电动轿车和燃料电池汽车。

AT THE Beijing auto show this week, global auto makers are showing off their latest environmentally friendly technologies, including hybrid engines, electric cars and fuel-cell vehicles.

但是，席卷中国、俄罗斯和印度等新兴市场的购车潮对环境的影响恐怕难以在短期内因这种技术创新而得到缓解。

But there is little chance such innovations will help reduce the environmental fallout of the car-buying boom sweeping across China and other emerging markets like Russia and India anytime soon.

问题主要在于成本。发达国家的许多汽车厂家所宣传的高科技绿色解决方案都太过昂贵，在发展中国家常常是行不通的，这里的消费者刚开始能负担得起配备着老式发动机的轿车。比如，中国2007年的轿车销量飙升21%，超过了520万辆，尽管一些本土消费者具有环保意识，但他们也很关心价格。

The problem is cost. The high-tech green solutions touted by many auto makers in the developed world are proving to be far too expensive and often impractical in the developing world, where consumers are just beginning to afford the old-fashioned combustion engine. For instance, in China, where passenger-car sales soared 21% to more than 5.2 million vehicles in 2007, some consumers are environmentally conscious, but they also care about price.

丰田汽车公司(Toyota Motor Corp.)就从普锐斯(Prius)过去三年里在中国令人失望的销售业绩中认识到了这一点。起价21,000美元的普锐斯在美国非常受欢迎，因为居高不下的燃油价格提振了市场对小型节油车辆的需求。

Toyota Motor Corp. is learning this lesson from its disappointing efforts to sell the Prius hybrid in China for the past three years. The Prius, with a starting price of $21,000, is extremely popular in the U.S., where high fuel prices have increased demand for smaller, fuel-efficient vehicles.

但在中国，相同车辆的售价却高出了近一倍，达到了40,000美元左右，分析师称，这主要是因为政府对进口零部件征收高额关税、生产成本较高以及推动降价的竞争压力不大。中国许多能支付起这个价格的富有消费者都会选择高端的运动型多用途车(SUV)和豪华轿车。

But in China, the same car costs nearly twice as much -- about $40,000 -- because of government duties on imported parts, higher production costs and, analysts say, no competition to drive down prices. For that amount of money, many wealthy Chinese consumers are choosing high-end sport-utility vehicles and luxury cars.

J.D. Power & Associates旗下亚汽资源公司(Automotive Resources Asia)的数据显示，尽管去年中国的SUV和豪华轿车销量实现了两位数增长，但普锐斯的销量只有414辆，比2006年下降了81%。此前丰田汽车设定的目标是销售3,000辆普锐斯轿车。

So while sales of SUVs and luxury vehicles soared by double digits in China last year, Toyota sold only 414 of the hybrid vehicles, an 81% decline from 2006, according to J.D. Power & Associates' Automotive Resources Asia unit. Toyota's goal was to sell 3,000 cars.

丰田汽车驻中国发言人Hitoshi Yokoyama称，中国消费者的环保意识仍比较薄弱。

'Chinese consumer awareness of the environment is still relatively low,' says Hitoshi Yokoyama, Toyota's spokesman in China.

同样，本田汽车(Honda Motor Co.)的思域(Civic)混合动力车自去年11月上市以来仅售出了约150辆。这款车的售价约为38,000美元，几乎是其美国销售价格的两倍。

Similarly, Honda Motor Co. has sold only about 150 of its Civic hybrids since the model's launch in November. It costs about $38,000, or about twice the price in the U.S.

中国政府正在采取一些措施，来帮助那些价格更可承受的混合动力车开拓市场，其主要措施是推动本土汽车厂家进军这一领域。根据汽车咨询机构CSM Worldwide的预计，2010年前后市场上将有30种左右不同的混合动力车型可供选择。

The Chinese government is making some effort to promote more affordable hybrids, mainly by pushing state-owned car makers to develop a domestic hybrid market. According to forecasts by auto consulting firm CSM Worldwide, some 30 different hybrid models will be available in China by about 2010.

汽车业新贵奇瑞汽车有限公司(Chery Automobile Co.)计划今年开始销售1.3升排量的低价油电混合动力轿车。与一家中国国有公司合作的通用汽车(General Motors Corp.)预计今年将在中国市场推出别克君越(Buick LaCrosse) Eco-Hybrid油电混合动力。位于重庆的长安汽车(Changan Automobiles)也计划在年底推出杰勋(Jie Xun)掀背式混合动力车。

The upstart Chery Automobile Co. plans to start selling a lower-cost gas-electric hybrid sedan with a 1.3-liter engine this year. General Motors Corp., which has partnered with a state-owned company, expects to start selling the Buick LaCrosse Eco-Hybrid in China this year. And Changan Automobiles, a big car maker in the southwestern city of Chongqing, also plans to launch a hybrid hatchback, Jie Xun, at the end of the year.

通用汽车表示，选择君越作为在中国推出的首款混合动力车是因为这款豪华中级车能够吸引更具环保意识的富有买家，同时他们也能够承受混合动力车的额外成本。

GM says it chose the LaCrosse, a large and luxurious sedan, as its first hybrid offering in China because the car appeals to wealthier buyers who are more environmentally conscious and can afford the extra cost of a hybrid.

通用汽车表示，能为混合动力车掏更多钱的轿车买家同时也看重自己的地位，希望拥有更大、配置更加先进的轿车。通用汽车中国销售、服务和营销部门执行董事刘曰海(Joseph Liu)说，我们认为这是从普锐斯的销售情况中汲取的教训。

Car buyers who can shell out the extra money for a hybrid are also status conscious and expect a bigger and better-equipped car, GM says. 'We believe that is the lesson to be learned from the sales performance of the Prius,' says Joseph Liu, executive director for vehicle sales, service and marketing at GM in China.

君越混合动力车在城市中行驶时将比标准君越少消耗约15%的汽油，排放也会减少15%。刘曰海表示这款车将于6月份上市销售。

The hybrid LaCrosse will burn about 15% less fuel and produce 15% fewer emissions than a standard LaCrosse in city driving. Mr. Liu said the car will go on sale in June.

通用汽车首席执行长瓦格纳(Rick Wagoner)周日表示，混合动力车面临的问题是，我们能否把混合动力车的成本降低到普通用户能够负担的水平。他说，中国有望在为节能轿车生产带来规模效应的过程中扮演重要角色。

The question with hybrids, GM Chief Executive Rick Wagoner said Sunday, is: 'Can we get the cost down on hybrids enough to get them to pay off for the average guy?' He said China will likely play an important role in providing economies of scale for producing energy-saving vehicles.

福特汽车(Ford Motor Co.)亚太及非洲区执行副总裁约翰?帕克(John Parker)周日表示，我们正在为中国及其他发展中国家里最大的客户群体寻找行之有效的解决方案。

John Parker, Ford Motor Co.'s executive vice president for Asia-Pacific and Africa, said Sunday: 'We're trying to find solutions that work for the biggest volume of customers' in China and other developing countries.

在福特汽车不断改进混合动力和其他技术，并想方设法降低相关产品价格的同时，该公司还在全球市场推出了更加省油和环保的汽油发动机。福特表示，相对于标准发动机，公司新开发的EcoBoost汽油发动机在城市中行驶时能够减少约15%的排放，提高燃油经济性约20%。

While Ford refines its hybrid and other technologies and looks for ways to make them more affordable, it is also rolling out improvements globally to gasoline engines designed to make them more fuel-efficient and cleaner. The company says its new EcoBoost gasoline engine, used in city driving, reduces emissions by about 15% and improves fuel economy by about 20%, compared with a standard engine.

所有汽车厂家都表示，中国政府若能出台减税等鼓励措施将会降低混合动力车的价格，推动销量增加。当前中国政府并未对丰田汽车的混合动力车推出鼓励措施，为的是不危及国内市场的发展。

What would help hybrid sales, all car makers say, would be for the Chinese government to provide incentives -- like tax cuts -- to make the vehicles affordable. At the same time, the government isn't providing incentives to Toyota hybrid models because it doesn't want to jeopardize the domestic market in development.

关注中国机动车问题的独立咨询师迈克尔?沃尔什(Michael Walsh)表示，中国需要尽快采取措施支持环保汽车。他说，中国政府在过去10年中作了很多工作，取消了含铅汽油，实施了更严格的排放标准，但为了减少排放、降低燃油消费，中国还有很长的路要走。

China needs to move quickly to back cleaner vehicles, says Michael Walsh, an independent consultant who works on motor-vehicle issues in China. The Chinese government has come a long way during the past decade, eliminating leaded fuel and adopting stricter emissions regulations, he says, but it still has a long way to go to curb emissions and reduce fuel consumption.

沃尔什称，中国需要更有紧迫感，否则污染水平或石油消耗将会达到非常高的程度。

'They need to move quickly, or the levels of pollution and oil consumption are going to be out of sight,' he says.

国际轿车厂家一直在游说中国采用他们中意的环保技术，主要是那些他们已在自己国内推广了的技术。但所有这些做法都面临着很多困难。美国公司作为短期解决方案而推出的生物燃料因食品价格上涨而显得后劲不足。欧洲厂家看好的清洁柴油也难以实施，因为中国的炼油厂无法生产该技术所需的低硫燃料，而升级设施需要投入数十亿美元。电动汽车和插电式混合动力车可能不会给中国的环境带来多大帮助，这是因为中国的大多数电力都来自于污染较高的燃煤电厂。

International car makers have lobbied China to adopt other eco-friendly technologies they favor, mainly the ones they use back home. But all these approaches face challenges. Biofuels, pushed by U.S. companies as a short-term solution, are losing support in the face of food-price inflation. Clean diesel, which European makers favor, would be difficult because China's refineries don't have the capacity to make the low-sulfur fuel that would be required, and upgrading them would cost billions of dollars. Electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, designed to be recharged by plugging them into the country's electricity grid, may not do much to help the environment in China. That is because most electricity in China is generated by burning coal, a polluting fossil fuel.

不过，中国的轿车厂家正在寻找多种变通方式。奇瑞汽车在本周的汽车展上展出了燃料电池轿车和混合动力轿车。吉利汽车(Geely Holding Group)和比亚迪集团(BYD Group)旗下的比亚迪汽车(BYD Auto Co.)都研制了电动轿车。比亚迪计划2009年前向大众市场推出e6电动轿车，一次充满电后该车能够行驶300公里。

Still, Chinese car makers are exploring many of these alternatives. Chery Automobile has a fuel-cell car and hybrid on display at this week's auto show. Geely Holding Group and BYD Auto Co., a unit of the Shenzhen-based BYD Group, both feature electric vehicles. BYD plans to mass-market its e6 electric car, which can travel 300 kilometers on a single full charge, by 2009.

不过，尽管中国非常重视混合动力车市场，但未来仍需面临重重挑战。眼下降低混合动力车成本还未提到中国制造商的议事日程之上，因为他们需解决电池的供电时间和寒冷天气下的运行情况等诸多技术问题。

For now, however, China is focusing on hybrids, though many challenges lie ahead. Chinese manufacturers haven't yet reached the stage of trying to make hybrids affordable as they work out technical issues, such as battery endurance and cold-weather operation.

中国汽车技术研究中心(China Automotive Technology and Research Center)下属电动汽车研发中心主任吴志新表示，他的调查研究显示中国大多数驾车者都愿意购买混合动力车，前提是它们和普通轿车比起来价格涨幅在 20%之内。这是一个艰巨的挑战，因为占去年中国轿车总销量67%的小型和微型轿车的最低售价仅为4,500美元左右。

Wu Zhixin, director of research and development at the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, a think tank in Shanghai, says his survey research shows that the majority of Chinese drivers would be willing to buy a hybrid -- if the price tag were no more than 20% higher than that of a conventional car. That is a tough challenge since compact and smaller cars, which made up 67% of all car sales in China last year, are selling for as little as $4,500.

清华大学核能与新能源技术研究院教授吴宗鑫说，节约的汽油费不足以抵消这类轿车购车成本的上升。他表示，政府应该开始用混合动力车取代政府机关的现有车辆，以帮助厂家实现规模经济，降低车价。

'The money being saved on gas isn't enough to cover the higher cost of the vehicles,' says Wu Zongxin, dean of Tsinghua University's Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology. Mr. Wu says the government should start replacing its own vehicle fleets with hybrids to help auto makers gain economies of scale and bring prices down.

上个月，丰田汽车向政府官员展示了混合动力技术的好处，捐赠了50辆普锐斯轿车供政府部门使用。丰田汽车上月还宣布将普锐斯的价格下调8%，降低3,000美元左右。

Last month, Toyota did its part to demonstrate to government officials the benefits of hybrid technology, donating 50 Prius vehicles for use by government officials. Toyota also announced last month it was dropping the price of the Prius by 8%, or about $3,000.

虽然这可能不足以提高这款车的销量，但丰田汽车乐观地认为在中国市场中，此类轿车的销量或许不用几十年、而只需几年时间就有可能实现增长。

That may not be enough to change sales, but Toyota is optimistic about the chances for sales to grow in years, if not decades, ahead.

丰田汽车发言人Hideaki Homma表示，中国是一个具有悠久历史的国家，我们正处于向中国市场介绍混合动力车的阶段；一旦混合动力车的理念得到认可，丰田预计其销量将会出现快速增长。

'China is a country with a very long history, and we are at the point where the introduction of the hybrid car is taking place,' says Hideaki Homma, a Toyota spokesman. 'Once the idea of hybrids catches on, we expect to see rapid growth.'

John Murphy / Gordon Fairclough

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080421/ffe145309.asp