2010年5月30日星期日

全球汽车业复苏在望 亚洲增长可能受阻

Autos rev up for recovery, but Asia may stall

全球汽车业复苏在望 亚洲增长可能受阻

TOKYO (MarketWatch) -- The global auto sector looks poised for a recovery, but some analysts remained wary of the prospects -- particularly for the Japanese, Chinese and Indian markets -- because of the potential for rising manufacturing costs and uncertainty surrounding consumer spending.

全球汽车业看起来有望复苏,不过一些分析人士仍对复苏前景持谨慎态度,特别是对日本、中国和印度市场,原因是制造成本可能上升以及围绕消费支出的不确定性。

'The recovery of the global auto sector looks to be stronger than the macroeconomic recovery in many regions, driven by demand and pricing,' Moody's Investors Service said in an industry outlook report released Thursday.

穆迪投资者服务公司(Moody's Investors Service)周四在一份行业预测报告中说,受需求和价格的推动,全球汽车业的复苏看起来比很多地区的宏观经济复苏要强劲。

Significant capacity was removed in the U.S. through restructuring, and there's been an 'increase in demand, which picked up by 13% between January and April 2010 compared to the same period a year ago, with the U.S., China and emerging markets such as India and Brazil the key drivers,' said Falk Frey, a senior vice president in Moody's Corporate Finance Group.

穆迪企业融资(Moody's Corporate Finance Group)高级副总裁弗莱(Falk Frey)说,美国通过重组削减了大量产能,而需求则有所上升,2010年前四个月需求同比增长了13%,其中美国、中国以及印度和巴西等新兴市场是主要的推动力。

Moody's upgraded its outlook for the global automotive manufacturing industry to positive from stable on May 19 after raising it to stable from negative in February.

继2月份穆迪将全球汽车制造业的预期从“负面”上调至“稳定”之后,5月19日又从“稳定”上调至“正面”。

The ratings agency, however, 'cautions that these changes do not mean it believes there is nothing but open road ahead of these companies.'

不过,该评级机构提醒说,评级上调并不意味着穆迪认为这些企业未来的路都是一帆风顺的。

'Certain key risks remain that could yet threaten the recovery' for the auto industry worldwide, the Moody's report said.

穆迪在报告中说,某些关键风险依然存在,可能会对全球汽车业的复苏造成威胁。

'Rising prices of raw materials, especially steel and precious metals, could squeeze margins towards the end of 2010,' Frey said.

弗莱说,原材料价格的上升──特别是钢材和贵金属价格的上涨──可能会造成2010年底之前利润率持续收窄。

And 'sovereign worries in Europe could slow down the economic recovery, reduce consumer spending and impact financing in the case of spill-over effects to the banking system,' he said.

他说,欧洲的主权债务危机可能会令经济复苏放缓,消费支出减少,因对银行体系的“溢出效应”而影响融资。

China caution

对中国要保持谨慎

Those risks appear to be even more prevalent for the Asian auto industry.

上述风险看起来对亚洲汽车业更加普遍。

China's auto industry may even be set to see 'negative growth' in the fourth quarter of this year.

中国的汽车业甚至可能会在今年四季度经历“负增长”。

At an annual shareholders' meeting earlier this week, SAIC Motor Corp.'s President Chen Hong said he expected China's vehicle sales to contract in the fourth quarter, analysts at Yuanta said in a recent note to clients.

元大证券分析师在最近的客户报告中说,在本周早些时候召开的年度股东大会上,上海汽车总裁陈虹说,他预计四季度中国的汽车销售将会收缩。

But Chen maintained his confident outlook that SAIC will sell 3 million cars in 2010 -- a year-on-year increase of 13%, the Yuanta analysts said.

不过元大分析师说,陈虹坚持其乐观的预测,认为2010年上海汽车销量将达300万辆,同比增长13%。

高盛上周发布的一篇研究报告说,今后三年,中国的汽车市场将保持两位数增长,尽管中国政府正在逐步撤销刺激措施。

高盛的分析师们预计,到2020年,中国的轻型汽车市场年销售量总计将达3000万辆,占全球需求的28%。

日本市场受阻

日本方面,本田汽车公司(Honda Motor Co.)在中国的四家汽车厂据报道已因配件厂工人持续罢工而全部关闭,这使得本田汽车近来的情况一直较为复杂。

分析师说,这种情况可能会影响本田在华合资的汽车制造厂。

元大证券(Yuanta)分析师预计罢工将很快解决,因中国市场对本田很重要。不过在周五发布的一篇研究报告中,他们也指出,本田在中国有两家合资伙伴,即骏威汽车有限公司(Denway Motors Ltd.)与东风汽车集团股份有限公司(Dongfeng Motor Group Co)。

元大证券分析师说,骏威受配件停产的影响要比东风大,而且如果罢工在今年其余时间持续,按元大预期的收益计算,预计骏威的收益将损失50%,而东风将损失约17%。

而日本汽车市场要恢复则面临全面挑战。

穆迪(Moody)在其报告中说,2011年销量可能反映出日本汽车制造商面临更大的国内销售挑战,即随着社会老龄化,驾车者会减少,而大部分城市居民不愿拥有汽车。

税负问题

就印度而言,摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)分析师说,在印度政府批准提高新车上路税的提议后,新德里的乘用车及两轮车价格将上涨。

摩根大通分析师在近期的一篇研究报告中说,车辆税上调2%至6%将进一步抬高汽车产品价格。

摩根大通分析师说,尽管新德里目前税负已经上调,但其它大城市是否有类似举措还有待于观察。

因车辆运行成本增加,行业增长率预计将放缓,摩根大通分析师重申对乘用车及两轮车行业的谨慎观点。

http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20100528/ffe155529.asp

Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

2010年5月7日星期五

现代索纳塔:性价比之王?

Hyundai Sonata: Most Car for the Least Money?

现代索纳塔:性价比之王?

No one will ever write erotic poetry about the Hyundai Sonata. No courting suitor ever promises a woman, 'Darling, I'll give you the moon, the stars, a Sonata with cloth seats...' Snooki from 'Jersey Shore' will be named secretary of agriculture before a Sonata crosses the field at the Pebble Beach Concours d'Elegance classic-car show. These things are appliances, disposable widgets, destined to wind up as brightly colored cubes of crushed and fused metal, the unlamented scat of our mobility society.

从没有人给现代索纳塔(Hyundai Sonata)汽车写过煽情的诗歌,从没有求婚者对女孩许诺说“亲爱的,我要为你摘下月亮和星星,我要给你买一辆布套座椅的索纳塔……”。要是索纳塔能在 “加州卵石湾经典汽车巡展”(Pebble Beach Concours d'Elegance classic-car show)上亮相,美国新推出的真人秀节目《泽西海岸》(Jersey Shore)中的主角Snooki就能当上美国农业部长。这类汽车就是家用消费品,用用就换的东西,注定最后被送进报废厂,成为一堆五颜六色的金属块。在我们这个汽车王国里,没人会为此扼腕叹息。

But for now, be amazed. Be amazed that any company can put together a car with this much raw, unmitigated content-a 2.4-liter direct-injection four cylinder with variable valve timing on both cams; six-speed automatic with manual shift mode; iPod/USB/AUX jacks and Bluetooth; stability control and smart ABS; airbags and power amenities galore-wrap the whole thing in a 10-year powertrain warranty and push it out the door for $20,195. That's ridiculous, ridonkulous. This is the sort of scorched-earth pricing that makes other car makers consider a change in strategic direction. Perhaps there are some openings at Hardees?

但现在,你要大吃一惊了。这份惊奇来自竟然会有公司能做出这样一款新鲜出炉、顶级配置的车型 ──2.4升可变正时双气门调节技术的四缸直喷发动机,六速手自一体变速箱,iPod/USB/AUX接口和蓝牙技术,稳定的操控性,智能ABS系统,多气囊,丰富的内饰,以及惊人的十年质保承诺──而所有这些,只要20,195美元就能拿下。简直太、太荒谬了!这种低到极致的“地窖价”令其他汽车制造商不得不考虑战略转型。要不,干脆改行去做餐饮算了?

The 2011 Sonata-the sixth generation of the nameplate in the company's history-extends Hyundai's business plan in the U.S. market, which is summed up in the phrase 'overwhelming numerical leverage,' which I just made up. If you lay it out and compare the Sonata with its mass-market, suburbo-drone, I-wish-I'd-stayed-single competitors-Toyota Camry, Honda Accord, Chevy Malibu-the case for the Sonata is summary. On paper, at least, it's just more car for the money.

2011款索纳塔属于第六代车型,也是韩国现代公司进一步扩大美国市场份额的新武器。我给这款车的评价是“用数字说话,所向披靡”。如果摊开来与主流市场其他“孤芳自赏”的同类车型相比──如丰田凯美瑞(Toyota Camry)、本田雅阁(Honda Accord)和雪弗兰Malibu──索纳塔胜在“有容乃大”。至少从表面看,这款车物超所值。

Consider the intersection of these monster numbers from Sonata's spec sheet: 198 hp (200 hp in the dual-exhaust SE model) and 35 mpg highway. The four-cylinder Honda Accord LX serves up 177 hp while delivering a highway mileage a full 4 mpg less than the Sonata. The Honda is also $1,660 more dear.

让我们来看看索纳塔技术参数表中的惊人数字:198马力(双排气口的SE款为200马力),高速公路每加仑汽油可跑35英里(合百公里耗油6.7升)。四缸发动机的本田雅阁LX的马力为177马力,高速公路每加仑汽油要比索纳塔少跑整整4英里,而价格要贵1,660 美元。

I'm not saying the Sonata is a better car. Ah, hell no. I'm saying that if you set aside intangibles-things like brand modulus, styling, materiality, and the ineffable sense of quality you get when you touch and use engineered things-the Sonata is too persuasive to ignore. In a way, Hyundai's strategy is a brilliant adaptation to a car-buying environment increasingly driven by online data comparison. If you're an overscheduled public-school teacher and you need a new car, what are you going to do? You're going to fire up the computer, go to Edmunds.com or cars.com, plow through the numbers and conclude-not unreasonably-that the Sonata is the best deal out there. Then you're going to go to one dealership, the Hyundai dealership, take the Sonata around the block and think, Yeah, OK, nice.

我并不是说索纳塔要比其他同类车型胜出一筹。当然不是!我的意思是说,如果不考虑品牌、风格、质感等无形因素以及触摸和使用汽车时那种难以用语言表达出来的品质感,索纳塔几乎让你无法拒绝。从某种意义上说,现代公司的战略迎合了一种购车趋势,即消费者越来越注重在网上比较各种车型的技术参数,作为购买的依据。如果你是一位工作繁忙的公立学校老师,又想买一辆新车,你会怎么做?你会打开电脑,去Edmunds.com或 cars.com网站,比较各种技术参数并得出结论──而且不无道理──索纳塔是性价比最高的选择。然后你会去一个车行,现代汽车的车行,把索纳塔开出去转一圈,然后想:哇,不错,真不错。

Let me just run this by my sales manager.

接下来就是销售经理的事儿了。

Of course, all cars are in some sense political, since country of origin and economic policy are inextricable. And here the story turns a bit melancholy. The Sonata's awesome pricing occurs at the whip end of a long chain of factors, including the fact that it's built in a place with low wages, a low standard of living and an indifferent attitude toward workers' rights. Someone really should take up a collection for Montgomery, Ala.

当然,所有的汽车都带有一点政治色彩,因为产地国家不同,经济政策复杂。在这方面,索纳塔就有一个软肋,其惊人的低价是建立在一连串因素之上,比如索纳塔由位于美国阿拉巴马州蒙哥马力 (Montgomery, Ala)的现代汽车工厂负责生产,那里的工资不高,生活水平较低,对工人的正当权利较为漠视。

Hyundai, the world's fourth-largest car company by units sold, is hotter than the hinges of Hades right now. It posted a fivefold increase in profit in Q1 of 2010, to a tidy $1 billion, on the recovering world market and favorable currency-exchange rates. For obvious reasons, a stronger Japanese yen helps the Korean car maker enormously in the U.S.

按汽车销量来看,现代公司在全球排名第四,目前的经营状况可谓如日中天。2010年一季度,在全球市场复苏和汇率因素的支撑下,公司利润同比增长五倍,达到10亿美元。显而易见,日圆汇率走强降低了日本汽车的价格竞争力,使韩国汽车制造商在美国市场如鱼得水。

Hyundai's ambitions for the Sonata transcend the value equation, however. Like the larger and equally overachieving Hyundai Genesis sedan and coupe, the new Sonata is about elevating the image of the brand.

然而,现代公司在索纳塔上的野心不仅局限于性价比方面的优势。与尺寸更大而性价比同样优越的现代Genesis轿车及轿跑车一样,新款索纳塔也致力于提升现代品牌的高端形像。

Enter styling.

造型设计

This is a nice-looking car, and for all the blathering about remote keyless entry and the like, the styling-thoughtful, attractive, premium, by several degrees above the call of duty-is the feature that impresses me most. Wrought in what Hyundai calls 'fluidic styling'-trademark alert!-the car does have a handsome, hydraulic wholeness to it, like water flowing over a river rock. The bold 'light spear' along the side (the shallow draft under the accent line broadens as it goes back along the side of the car, creating a spear-like shadow) plays nicely against the back-drafting energy of the roof line. A little bit of Volkswagen CC in there, a little Mercedes-Benz CLS. The most sophisticated exterior touch is a thin chromic bow that runs from the headlamp to the C-pillar along the belt line, a brightwork meteor across the car's firmament. Lovely.

索纳塔的外形很好看,虽然关于其“遥控车门开关”等高科技手段的宣传很多,但让我印象最深的是它的富有创见、迷人的外观设计,比中规中矩的要求高出几个段位。现代公司精心打造一种“流动的雕塑”的设计语言(这个提法值得抢注成商标),而索纳塔整体而言确实有水流一般的漂亮效果,如同河水冲刷过礁石所呈现出的那样。车身侧面大胆地采取了“光矛”的设计(车身侧面的装饰线条在向后延展的过程中不断扩大,创造出一种长矛般的阴影),与车顶的动感回流线条交相辉映,有点大众CC(Volkswagen CC)的感觉,也有点奔驰CLS (Mercedes-Benz CLS)的味道。最优美的外部装饰是沿着腰线从前大灯延伸到C柱的一条细细的弓形镀铬线条,就像流星一样划过车身,魅力十足。

Deconstructing the styling a bit: The Sonata strikes me as an aspirational placeholder kind of car, the sort of choice that will speak to people on their way up to benchmark luxury brands like Lexus, BMW, Mercedes. A luxury-car starter kit, if you will. Those sorts of buyers will equate style-the evident and obvious exertions of style rippling across the Sonata-with pride of ownership. It's worth noting that Hyundai will soon introduce the Lexus-like Equus sedan to the U.S. market-figure the early $60,000s to start-and, knowing that, I can't help seeing the Sonata as the bottom rung of a luxury ladder Hyundai is building, year by year.

让我们来进一步体会一下这种外观设计:索纳塔给我留下深刻的印象,彷佛那种在梦境中应留有一席之地的汽车,让人不由自主地联想起雷克萨斯(Lexus)、宝马 (BMW)、奔驰等豪华车品牌。可以这么说,索纳塔是一款入门级的豪华车。贯穿于索纳塔各个方面的设计理念彰显出现代公司的不懈努力,将令这款车的拥有者油然而生一种骄傲的心情。值得一提的是,现代公司即将在美国市场推出与雷克萨斯有几分相像的Equus轿车,起步价为6万多美元。了解了这一点,我不禁会预想现代汽车会逐渐成为入门级豪华车的选择之一。

Inside, the Sonata is roomy, comfortable and has some interesting choices of materials-the door panels are a kind of plasticized taffeta-but overall the car's interior is more conventional and less surprising than the exterior. The central console pours down from the upper dash between the front seats in a graceful cataract of switches and displays. However, the plastics are hard, the seats feel a little thin and door latches and switches feel and sound hollow. If I were the chief project engineer for the Sonata...well, first of all, I'd hire an engineer to replace me. But then I'd put more substance, more structure, behind these touch areas.

索纳塔的内部空间宽敞舒适,在用材方面有一些有趣的地方──车门内板使用一种类似塔夫绸的塑化材料──但整体而言,这款车的内饰风格相对于外型设计来说更为传统,没有那么多的惊人之笔。中央控制台位于两个前座椅的中间,由上而下的排列十分流畅,各种开关和仪表优雅地分布其中。不过,车内使用的塑料比较硬,椅子感觉有点薄,车门开合的感觉不太厚重,声音有些空洞。如果我是索纳塔的工程总监…… 当然,我首先会请个更专业的来辅助我,然后我就会选择在这些人车经常接触的地方用上更多的材料,设计更好的构造。

Nowhere does the program of radical economizing show more than in the engine sound. For all its high-tech direct-injection efficiency, this thing has a positively antique sound, with a valve click so pronounced it almost sounds like a diesel. I actually took a flashlight to my test car to see if perhaps the exhaust manifold gasket had sprung a pinhole leak, or else it had inadvertently sucked up a set of castanets. If this thing is in spec then, please, somebody send the company a box of hearing aids.

没什么比发动机声音更显现出索纳塔极端的成本控制了。虽然这款直喷发动机科技含量和燃油能效较高,但声音着实有些古董车的风范,引擎阀门开合的卡哒声太过明显,听上去简直就像柴油发动机。事实上,我专门拿着手电筒打开我测试那辆汽车的前盖,看是不是排气集管垫片坏了导致出现针孔状漏气,还是发动机意外吸入了作响的异物。如果这个现象属于正常,那么麻烦哪位给现代公司直接寄去一盒助听器吧。

Two hundred horsepower absolves a lot, however, and the Sonata GLS gets down the road with dispatch, if not wild abandon. This is not a performance car by any means; still, the Sonata feels reasonably spry, with nicely controlled body roll, accurate steering with good feedback, and assured braking. The six-speed automatic, with the shifter in manual mode, helps the car shed its cast of servile domestication when the road opens up and the driving mood darkens.

不过,200马力的引擎足以平息一些怨言,索纳塔GLS的速度即使称不上狂放,也是够迅猛的。当然,这款车的性能算不上顶级,但驾驶感觉相当灵动,车控感很好,转向精确,路感反馈清晰,刹车也很到位。借助六速手自一体变速箱,在开阔道路上或是感觉有些沉闷时可切换为手动模式,让车子从老老实实的驯服状态一下子脱胎换骨。

The common midmarket midsize sedan executed uncommonly well, the Sonata is a one-car price war, a line in the sand, daring competitors to cross. Which they won't, will they? I am agog at its value. And if you have a four-letter yardstick with which you measure cars, C-A-S-H, you can stop your search here. Ditto if your yardstick says M-P-G. But I'm still not quite in love with Hyundai, still not inspired to write that love sonnet. I wait for the Equus, quill in hand.

索纳塔这款定位于中端市场的中型轿车表现不同凡响,足以引发一场价格战,形成一个市场标准,看哪个竞争对手敢于超越。但我想,敢于出头的竞争对手寥寥无几。我对索纳塔的性价比推崇备至,如果你最看重的是性价比,那么索纳塔就将成为你搜寻后的最终选择;如果你最看重的是燃油经济性,结果也是一样。不过,我尚未对现代汽车完全痴迷,还没找到灵感为索纳塔写一首情诗。我把笔拿在手中,期待现代Equus能让我有此动力。

DAN NEIL

http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20100507/ffe081740.asp

2010年5月5日星期三

汽车业成功复原给美国经济注入强心针

After The Crash, Auto Towns Revive

汽车业成功复原给美国经济注入强心针

A year after the U.S. government swooped in to rescue two crippled auto giants, the car business is showing signs of life again -- and so are local economies across the heartland that depend on it.

美国政府出手急救两家重疾缠身的汽车巨头已是一年前的事,现在汽车业再现生机,依托于汽车业的美国中部经济亦是如此。

As soon as General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group LLC finished racing into and out of bankruptcy court last fall, orders for headlamps and other car parts began streaming back to two factories here in this southern Illinois hamlet. The factories quickly re-hired about 400 of their 550 laid-off workers, giving Flora, Pop. 4,772, a big shot in the arm.

随着通用汽车(General Motors)和克莱斯勒集团(Chrysler Group)在去年秋天先后进出破产法庭,对车灯及其他配件的订单也慢慢流回了伊利诺伊州弗罗拉市的两家汽车配件厂。于是它们忙不迭地在原来打发回家的 550名工人中又拉回来约400人,这可是给人口只有4772人的小城弗罗拉打了一剂超级强心针。

Local businesses are perking up. The Best Western just outside town occasionally fills all 41 of its rooms again. And shoppers are less scarce in Joe Etchison's appliance store. 'Last year, people were sticking with the basics and skipping the stainless-steel refrigerators,' he said, walking his downtown showroom trailed by Taz, his dog. People have 'figured out the world has not ended.'

本地商业也重振旗鼓。城外酒店Best Western的41间客房时不时会再度全满。家电零售商乔伊?埃奇逊(Joe Etchison)的顾客也多了起来,他说,去年大家都只买些最基本的东西,对不锈钢外壳冰箱什么的看都不看。埃奇逊一边在自己开设在城里的展厅内牵着自己的小狗塔兹溜达,一边说现在人们已经明白还没到世界末日。

Similar scenes are playing out across the Midwest, where the speedy stabilization of GM and Chrysler appears to have helped towns tied to the auto industry to get back on their feet more quickly than they may have otherwise.

整个美国中西部地区都在上演着这一幕。通用汽车和克莱斯勒的迅速企稳帮助了那些背靠汽车业发展的城镇恢复元气,而且它们的复原速度似乎要快于其他地方。

One year ago today, the Obama administration took a gamble and forced Chrysler into a Chapter 11 reorganization. Two months later, it did the same to GM, spending almost $65 billion of taxpayer money in an effort to prevent the two giants from collapsing and perhaps gravely injuring the economy as a whole.

一年前的今天,奥巴马(Obama)政府放手一搏,迫使克莱斯勒根据破产法第十一章进行重组。两个月后,政府又要求通用汽车也这么做。政府为此花费了纳税人大约650亿美元,为的是不让这两家汽车业巨头破产并给整体经济带来沉重打击。

With Washington pushing the process, both companies exited bankruptcy in just six weeks -- lightning speed compared to the years that some firms spend there. Auto-parts supplier Visteon Corp., for example, filed for bankruptcy protection four days before GM and still hasn't emerged from Chapter 11.

在美国政府的助推下,两家公司都在仅仅六周后就申请脱离破产保护,和其他汽车业公司可能需要的几年时间比起来堪称高速。举例来说,汽车配件商Visteon Corp.先于通用汽车四天申请了破产保护,直到现在还没有走出这一状态。

The taxpayer bailout remains controversial. The administration says it is unlikely to recoup all its money. GM and Chrysler are far from healthy. Many of the 400,000 auto jobs lost since 2008 are gone for good.

人们对汽车业救助计划仍存争议。美国政府说可能无法尽数收回资金。现在通用汽车和克莱斯勒也远远谈不上状态良好。从 2008年以来汽车业共削减了40万个工作岗位,它们当中大多将一去不复返。

And the bailout's precise economic impact is hard to pin down. Improvements in the U.S. economy, stabilizing home prices and this year's uptick in new-car sales are undoubtedly helping the industry, too.

这份救援计划的具体经济影响还难以确定。美国经济的改善、住房价格的回稳以及这一年间新车销量的增长无疑也帮助了汽车业。

The industry is by no means booming. In March, motor-vehicle and parts plants were operating at 54.4% of their capacity, according to estimates by the Federal Reserve Bank. That's a low level, historically -- 70% to 80% is considered normal -- but better than the low of 36.8% last June. In March, motor-vehicle and parts manufacturing was up 24.3% compared to the year-earlier period, according to the Fed. Overall manufacturing was up just 4.6%.

现在汽车业远非蓬勃发展。美联储银行估算,3月份汽车及配件工厂的开工率仅为54.4%,低于历史水平(据信70%至80%是正常值),但好于去年6月份时的36.8%。美联储数据显示,3月份汽车和配件生产同比增长了 24.3%,而其他制造业的产量增幅仅为4.6%。

'The goal [of the bailout] was to prevent the imminent collapse of two major manufacturers at a time when there wasn't an answer to when things were going to stop getting worse,' said Thomas Klier, an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. 'From that perspective, it was effective.' Now it depends on 'how well [the companies] execute their business plans.'

美联储芝加哥分行经济学家克莱尔(Thomas Klier)说,美国政府汽车业救援计划旨在防范两大汽车巨头日益临近的破产,当时没人知道事情什么时候才能不再变得更糟;从这个角度看,它是成功的,现在它则取决于两家公司能把自己的业务计划执行得怎样了。

If GM and Chrysler had languished in bankruptcy, industry executives argue, things would have been far worse. 'I think the supplier industry would have collapsed and, for that matter, the U.S. economy,' said Matthew Simoncini, chief financial officer of seat maker Lear Corp., which itself sought bankruptcy protection last July. 'Ultimately the bailout has helped the suppliers. It allowed GM to remain viable, and the fact that it got back up and running quickly really helped the supply chain.'

企业业内高管认为,如果通用汽车和克莱斯勒真的走到了破产地步,那么整个事态会变得糟糕很多。汽车座椅生产商Lear Corp.的首席财务长西蒙斯尼(Matthew Simoncini)说,我认为汽车供应商也将破产,整个美国经济也是这样。该公司曾在去年7月份时寻求了破产保护。西蒙斯尼说,救援计划最终帮助了汽车供应商,让通用汽车活了下来,它的卷土重来和快速运转真的是盘活了整个供应链条。

Lear spent about 125 days in Chapter 11 last year, three times as long as GM. Now it, too, is hiring. A plant in Hammond, Ind., that supplies seats to Ford Motor Co. recently said it was adding about 250 more workers to the 170 employed there.

Lear在破产保护的状态中待了125天,比通用汽车多两倍。现在它也恢复了招工。一家设在印第安纳州哈蒙德、为福特汽车(Ford Motor Co.)提供座椅的工厂近期表示,现在工厂有170名雇员,计划增雇约250人。

In Rogersville, Tenn., and Marion, Va., plants that make steering components recalled many workers once it became clear that Chrysler was staying in business. A Tenneco Inc. factory in Litchfield, Mich., recently rehired the 86 people it let go last year. TRW Automotive Holdings Corp., owner of the Rogersville and Marion plants, is also hiring at a Saginaw, Mich., plant that supplies GM.

在田纳西州的罗哲斯维和弗吉尼亚州的马里昂,生产驾驶系统元件的工厂在确定克莱斯勒将继续留在汽车行业中后纷纷召回了许多工人。一家位于密歇根州利奇菲尔德的Tenneco工厂重新聘用了86名去年解雇的工人。在罗哲斯维和马里昂开设了工厂的TRW Automotive Holdings Corp.也开始给密歇根州的沙吉诺工厂增加人手,这家工厂为通用汽车供货。

Auto sales are picking up. The industry is on track to sell about 11.5 million cars and light trucks in the U.S. market. That's a long way from the annual sales of 16 million from earlier in the decade, but up from last year's 10.4 million.

汽车销量正在上扬,整个行业有望在美国市场售出约1,150 万辆轿车和轻型卡车。这个数字相比几年前1,600万辆的年销量还有很远的距离,但高于去年的1,040万辆。

One thing in auto makers' favor: Americans are driving old vehicles, and a better economy might persuade them to buy new ones. Last year, the average passenger car in service was 10.6 years old, the highest level in more than a decade, according to R.L. Polk Co.

一个对汽车生产商有利的因素是,美国人开的都是旧车,如果经济形势好转,他们可能会去购买新车。R.L. Polk Co.的数据显示,去年在用乘用车辆的平均车龄有10.6年,是10多年来的最高水平。

At the same time, employment is brightening a bit. In Hawkins County, where Rogersville is located, unemployment eased to 11% in March, down from 11.6% a year ago. In Smyth County, home to the town of Marion, the March rate was 11.9%, down from 12.2%.

与此同时,就业环境也在慢慢改善。在罗哲斯维所在的霍金斯县(Hawkins County),3月份的失业率从一年前的11.6%下降到了11%。在马里昂镇所在的史密斯县(Smyth County),3月份失业率从12.2%下降到了11.9%。

The TRW steering plant, one of the largest employers in the county, laid off 75% of its 275 workers last year when Chrysler's survival was in doubt. After the auto maker was restructured and paired with partner Fiat SpA, the plant brought back most of its workers. Other suppliers, including Cooper-Standard Automotive, which makes fuel lines, and Hutchinson Worldwide, which makes rubber seals, are hiring, too.

TRW公司的转向部件厂是县里最大的雇主之一,去年在克莱斯勒面临生存考验时,工厂将275名工人裁减了75%。在克莱斯勒实现重组并与合作伙伴菲亚特(Fiat SpA)结盟后,工厂返聘了多数工人。其他供应商也在招人,其中包括生产燃油管的Cooper-Standard Automotive,以及生产橡胶垫的Hutchinson Worldwide。

In Rogersville, in northeastern Tennessee, home prices are down 20% from where they once were. Some residents are in danger of foreclosure or have already fallen victim to it, said Rhenda Carroll, who manages a prominent real estate agency.

罗哲斯维位于田纳西州东北部,其房价已较过去的水平下跌了两成。运营着一家知名房地产经纪公司的卡罗尔(Rhenda Carroll)说,一些居民面临着住房被止赎的危险,有的已经被止赎。

Now, home sales are showing some life, Ms. Carroll said. 'It's less bad, but it sure ain't like it used to be.'

卡罗尔说,目前住房的销售正在显现一些生机。她说,情况缓和了一些,但肯定赶不上过去的样子。

Lynn Lawson, head of the county's industrial recruiting agency, had a big win in 2008, persuading a Korean copper-wiring supplier, Sam Dong Co., to locate a plant in Rogersville. 'It's going to be a two- to five-year climb back,' he said. But with some auto-supplier jobs coming back, 'everybody has a bit of happiness floating around in them.'

2008年,霍金斯县工业招聘代理机构负责人劳森(Lynn Lawson)获得了一个巨大的成功。他劝说韩国铜线供应商Sam Dong Co.在罗哲斯维设立了一家工厂。他说,要回到过去的水平得有两到五年的时间,但随着汽车供应商的一些就业岗位得以恢复,人人心头都涌动着一些快乐情绪。

When GM and Chrysler went into bankruptcy protection and shut down their U.S. plants, many in Flora wondered how the town would weather the storm. 'It was nail-biting time,' said Mayor Bob Tackitt.

在通用汽车和克莱斯勒进入破产程序并关闭美国工厂时,弗罗拉的很多人在思考如何渡过这个寒冬。镇长塔基特(Bob Tackitt)说,那是一种让人火急火燎的日子。

There was good reason for concern. The auto industry had seen suppliers fall into bankruptcy in the past, and many turned into messy affairs. Delphi Corp., the former parts division of GM, filed for Chapter 11 in 2005, and battled with investors and creditors for four years before finally being reorganized.

当时的担忧不无道理。汽车行业曾出现供应商破产,很多供应商接着又陷入了麻烦。曾是通用汽车零部件部门的Delphi Corp.于2005年根据破产法第11章申请破产,接下来同投资人和债权人之间的纠纷延续了四年之久,过后才终于实现了重组。

But in the cases of both Chrysler and GM, the government's auto task force hammered out cost-cutting agreements with creditors, the United Auto Workers union and other parties before the companies filed. That eliminated much of the in-court wrangling.

但在克莱斯勒和通用汽车申请破产之前,美国政府的汽车行业特别工作组已经同债权人、全美汽车工人联合会(United Auto Workers)和其他各方达成了成本削减协议,这样就避免了很多法庭上的纠葛。

On June 10, after 41 days in bankruptcy court, Chrysler emerged as a new company owned by a UAW health-care fund, the U.S. and Canadian governments and Fiat. GM filed on June 1 and emerged on July 10, with the U.S. government owning 60% and Canada and the UAW fund holding smaller stakes.

6月10日,在走了41天的破产法庭手续过后,克莱斯勒成为一家新公司,由汽车工人联合会的医保基金、美国政府、加拿大政府和菲亚特共同持股。通用汽车于6月1日申请破产,7月10日重生,由美国政府持股 60%,加拿大政府和汽车工人联合会持有较小的股份。

Soon after, GM began bringing its plants back on line. Chrysler likewise restarted production, although at a slower pace than GM.

不久,通用汽车开始让工厂重新开工。克莱斯勒也恢复了生产,不过速度比通用汽车慢一些。

GM and Chrysler emerged from bankruptcy in 'an amazingly short period of time,' said Martin Fischer, president of Hella Corporate Center USA. Their quick return to production 'undoubtedly saved jobs and reduced operating losses at major North American suppliers such as Hella.'

Hella Corporate Center USA总裁费希尔(Martin Fischer)说,经过很短的一段时间,通用汽车和克莱斯勒就从破产中走出,快得让人吃惊,它们的迅速复产无疑挽救了工作机会,并降低了Hella等重要北美供应商的运营成本。

This year, with Flora's auto plants humming, downtown merchants are detecting a slow, welcome turnaround.

今年,由于弗罗拉的汽车工厂维持着生产,市中心的商户们迎来了缓慢而可喜的复苏。

At Shirt Tales, a shop stocked with everying from sporting goods to Jelly Belly jellybeans, a lot of parents were buying socks and belts to match their Little Leaguers' uniforms -- the bare minimum they could get by with -- said employee Janice Randall. Now, new gloves and $79 aluminum bats are selling, too.

有一家店铺名为“Shirt Tales”,从体育用品到“Jelly Belly”牌的软糖,里面各种各样的东西都有。店员兰德尔(Janice Randall)说,以前很多父母都是在为他们参加了少年棒球联盟(Little League)的孩子选购与制服搭配的袜子、腰带,这是他们的最低着装要求。现在,新款手套和79美元的铝制球棍也卖得出去了。

At the Ace hardware on North Street, owner Jeff Harr said customers are no longer sticking only to things they absolutely need. 'Sales of our patio furniture have gone from nothing last year to decent this year.' Mr. Harr once had 18 employees but cut back to 12. He's considering bringing on another person.

在该镇北大街的“Ace”五金店,店主哈尔(Jeff Harr)说,顾客们已经不再只买必备物件了。他说,去年我们的露台家具一件也没有卖出,今年销量还算不错。哈尔曾聘有18位员工,裁人后只剩下12位。他在考虑是不是再雇一人。

Jeff Bennett / Mike Ramsey

http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20100430/ecb125836.asp

2010年4月26日星期一

博世:中国汽车市场世界第一地位牢不可破

Bosch Sees China Firmly in No. 1 Auto-Market Spot

博世:中国汽车市场世界第一地位牢不可破

The world's largest auto parts supplier Robert Bosch GmbH expects China to remain the world's biggest auto market with the U.S. unlikely to reclaim this position after its recovery from last year's gloom.

世界最大的汽车零部件供应商罗伯特?博世公司 (Robert Bosch GmbH)预计,中国将继续保持世界最大汽车市场的地位,美国从去年的低迷中复苏后也不太可能重回第一的位置。

China has replaced the U.S. as the biggest world market and that is irreversible, Franz Fehrenbach, head of Bosch management, said in an interview at the German firm's Stuttgart headquarters.

博世执行总裁菲润巴赫(Franz Fehrenbach)在这家德国公司位于斯图加特的总部接受采访时说,中国已经取代美国成为全球最大汽车市场,而且这个形势是无法逆转的。

Fehrenbach's comments highlight the growing importance of the Auto China show in Beijing, which kicks off on Friday and is drawing top executives from nearly all global auto makers to Beijing.

菲润巴赫这番话彰显了北京国际车展的重要性日渐增加。北京车展于周五开幕,吸引了几乎全球所有汽车厂商的高层前往北京。

Fehrenbach said he sees particularly strong potential in central China, which isn't yet as developed as other regions, and where a minicar cheaper than the Tata Nano could be met by strong demand. The four-seat minicar of India's Tata Motors Ltd. is the world's cheapest car.

菲润巴赫说,他觉得华中地区的潜力尤其强劲,这里不如其他地区发达,比Tata Nano价格更低的小型车会有很大需求。Tata Nano是印度厂商塔塔汽车(Tata Motors Ltd.)生产的四座小型车,价格为全球最低。

Fehrenbach's comments are also the latest indication of a broad shift in the global auto industry toward Asian growth markets. China was one of the few bright spots for auto makers amid the recession as demand soared, fueled partly by extensive economic stimulus measures. The U.S. auto market was, by contrast, battered by eroding demand amid the economic crisis as credit markets dried up. Some analysts and auto makers, however, expect the U.S. to reclaim the top position this year or in 2011.

菲润巴赫的话也是全球汽车业普遍转向增长中的亚洲市场的最新迹象。对于衰退之中的汽车厂商来说,中国是少有的亮点,中国市场需求飙升,部分是受大规模经济刺激措施推动。相比之下,美国汽车市场则在经济危机中因信贷市场出现枯竭,惨遭需求下挫打击。不过一些分析师和汽车厂商预计美国今年或明年将重回全球之首。

In 2009, Bosch's sales in China came in at around 2.9 billion euros ($3.9 billion), an increase of almost 30%. In terms of sales, the country was Bosch's third-biggest market.

2009年博世在中国的销售额约29亿欧元(合39亿美元),增长了近30%。以销售额计,中国是博世第三大市场。

'This year, we're going to have high two-digit growth rates there,' said Fehrenbach. In the first quarter, sales have increased about 60%, he said.

菲润巴赫说,今年我们将在中国实现两位数字的增幅。他说今年一季度增长了约 60%。

Bosch, which says it has been active in China for 100 years, has about 20 own sites in the country and employs about 23,000 people.

博世声称自己在中国经营已有百年历史,目前在华有大约20个网点,雇员约2.3万人。

The BRIC countries--Brazil, Russia, India and China--are expected to drive the industry's recovery in coming years, with China being by far the largest market.

“金砖四国”(巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国)预计将在未来几年推动汽车业复苏,中国则是当仁不让的最大市场。

Bosch expects 30% of sales to come from the Asia-Pacific region by 2015, with 20% anticipated to come from America and the remaining half from Europe. Bosch expects Asia-Pacific and U.S. to account for an equal percentage of sales.

博世预计到2015年其销售额将有30%来自亚太地区,20%来自美国,其余的五成来自欧洲。博世预计,亚太和美国的销售额所占比例将会相当。

Fehrenbach also said that the transfer of knowledge between Europe and Asia is no longer a 'one-way street', as Western companies are gaining valuable expertise in emerging markets. The pressure in emerging markets to find simple and cost-effective solutions is having a positive effect on industrial countries, the manager said.

菲润巴赫还说,欧亚之间的知识传输已不再是“单行道”,西方公司也在新兴市场获取了有价值的技术。他表示,新兴市场要求找到简单划算的解决方案,这种压力对发达国家产生了积极影响。

Nico Schmidt

http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20100423/rec113013.asp

2010年4月17日星期六

丰田管理层派系之争的渊源

Inside Toyota, Executives Trade Blame Over Debacle

丰田管理层派系之争的渊源

Toyota Motor Corp.'s quality crisis is exposing -- and exacerbating -- a long-simmering internal feud. The battle pits the founding Toyoda family against a group of professional managers, each blaming the other for the auto maker's woes.

丰田汽车公司(Toyota Motor Corp.)的质量危机暴露并加剧了由来已久的内部不和。这场较量使丰田创始家族与一批职业管理人员对立起来,双方都指责对方令公司陷入了困境。

Behind the scenes in recent weeks, the skirmishing has grown intense. President Akio Toyoda, the 53-year-old grandson of the founder, has tried to push out one of the nonfamily executives: his predecessor as president, Katsuaki Watanabe, now vice chairman.

近几周来,双方的纷争暗中变得激烈起来。丰田公司创始人53岁的孙子、现任丰田总裁丰田章男(Akio Toyoda)试图将一位非丰田家族成员高管挤出管理层──前任总裁、现在的副董事长渡边捷昭(Katsuaki Watanabe)。

Not long after the company made one of its massive safety recalls in mid-January, Mr. Toyoda suggested to Mr. Watanabe, through an intermediary, that the former president leave the auto giant and instead run a Toyota affiliate, according to an executive who says he was told about the move by Mr. Toyoda.

据一位自称从丰田章男处得知这一情况的高管说,在1月中旬丰田因安全问题进行了大规模召回之后不久,丰田章男通过一位中间人建议渡边捷昭离开丰田,转去运营丰田的一家关联企业。

Mr. Watanabe refused.

渡边捷昭拒绝了丰田章男的建议。

The standoff, which hasn't been reported before, is a dramatic example of how the old split between the two camps is bubbling to the surface amid Toyota's crisis. The feud is a distraction for a divided leadership as officials struggle to regain their footing after three months of attacks unprecedented in the company's 75-year history.

以前从未报导过的僵局凸显出,在丰田遭遇危机之际,两个阵营之间旧有的分歧开始浮出水面。在丰田75年历史上前所未有的危机之后三个月,公司高管们努力重新站稳脚跟,而内部不和则分散了分裂的领导层的精力。

Mr. Toyoda and his allies have been saying openly that when he took the top job last year after a 15-year hiatus for the Toyoda clan, he inherited a company weakened by nonfamily predecessors who sacrificed quality for faster growth and fatter margins.

丰田章男及其盟友一直公开表示,当他去年成为15年来首位丰田家族成员总裁后,他继承的是一家在非家族成员前任总裁们手中变得羸弱的企业,那些总裁牺牲了质量来换取更快的增长和更高的利润率。

The problems arose when 'some people just got too big-headed and focused too excessively on profit,' Mr. Toyoda said at a Beijing news conference in March. He acknowledged the 'ultimate responsibility for mistakes . . . lies in me.'

丰田章男3月份在北京的一次新闻发布会上说,当有些人变得过于自负、过于专注利润的时候,问题就出现了。他承认,失误的最终责任在自己身上。

A week earlier, Jim Press -- once the top Toyota executive in the U.S. before he jumped to a rival auto maker -- issued a statement declaring: 'The root cause of their problems is that the company was hijacked, some years ago, by anti-family, financially oriented pirates.'

在那之前一周,曾担任丰田公司驻美国高管、之后跳槽到一家竞争对手公司的普莱斯(Jim Press)发表了一份声明说,他们的问题根源在于,这家公司几年前被反丰田家族、以财务为导向的海盗劫持了。

Those executives 'didn't have the character to maintain a customer-first focus. Akio does,' said Mr. Press, who had a run-in with nonfamily Japanese bosses several years ago.

普莱斯说,这些高管“没有坚持客户第一的品质”,而丰田章男则具备这种品质。普莱斯几年前与非丰田家族日本高管之间发生过口角。

A Toyota spokeswoman declined to comment on the infighting, saying: 'We do not discuss executive changes unless they are formally decided.' She declined to comment on the statements by Messrs. Toyoda and Press, or to make Mr. Watanabe available for comment.

丰田发言人拒绝就内部不和发表置评。她说,除非高管人事变动正式确定,否则我们不会讨论此事。她拒绝就丰田章男和普莱斯的声明置评,也拒绝安排渡边捷昭发表置评。

Privately, the nonfamily managers have been waging their own campaign within the Toyota group. They say Mr. Toyoda never publicly opposed their profit-growth strategy when the company was widely praised for making big money and surpassing General Motors Corp. to become the world's No. 1 auto maker. They say Toyota's current troubles are less a quality crisis and more a management and public-relations crisis of Mr. Toyoda's making, reflecting their longstanding warnings that he wasn't ready to run a global corporation.

私下里,非丰田家族管理人员一直在丰田集团内部开展自己的宣传活动。他们说,当公司因大幅盈利、超过通用汽车公司(General Motors Corp.)成为全球第一大汽车生产商而获得普遍赞誉的时候,丰田章男从未公开反对过他们利润增长的战略。他们说,丰田公司目前的困境与其说是质量危机,不如说是丰田章男造成的管理和公关危机,折射出他们一直以来认为丰田章男没有准备好运营一家全球企业的警告。

'Is Akio ducking criticism of being a beneficiary of nepotism by accusing us and trying to justify his ascendancy to the top job?' one of Mr. Watanabe's top aides said. 'One of our biggest social responsibilities is to generate profits and pay taxes. To criticize the company's effort to maximize profits and thus taxes is just complete nonsense.'

渡边捷昭的高级助手之一说,丰田章男是否在通过指责我们、试图给他担任总裁一职寻找合理的理由,而逃避外界认为他是裙带关系受益者的批评?我们最大的社会责任之一是盈利和纳税。批评丰田公司最大化利润和纳税的努力,纯粹是无稽之谈。

Hiroshi Okuda, a nonfamily president who ran the company from 1995 through 1999, has told at least two associates since the recalls of cars involved in sudden acceleration incidents earlier this year: 'Akio needs to go.' The 77-year-old remains a key company adviser even though he gave up his board seat last year.

今年早些时候丰田因突然加速问题而召回汽车以来,曾在1995年至1999年担任丰田公司总裁的非丰田家族人士奥田硕(Hiroshi Okuda)对至少两名助手说过,丰田章男必须离开。77岁的奥田硕去年放弃了董事会席位,不过仍是公司主要顾问之一。

Toyota declined to make Mr. Okuda available for comment. The Toyota spokeswoman declined to comment.

丰田拒绝安排奥田硕发表置评。上述丰田发言人拒绝置评。

Takahiro Fujimoto, a professor of economics at Tokyo University who has studied Toyota extensively, says airing problems openly is very much part of Toyota's corporate culture focused on kaizen, or continuous improvement. 'But it's highly unusual for anybody inside Toyota to publicly criticize certain individuals by name,' or to criticize in a way that it's easy for anybody to identify the targets.

东京大学经济学教授、对丰田公司有广泛研究的藤本隆宏(Takahiro Fujimoto)说,将问题公布于众是丰田不断进步的企业文化的一部分。不过,丰田内部人员公开指名道姓地批评某个人,或是批评的方式让人很容易就能确定批评对象身份的做法是非常少见的。

The feud dates to the mid-1990s, when the family relinquished control of the chief executive's office for the first time since Eiji Toyoda, the cousin of the founder, became president in 1967. Non-Toyodas also ran the company from 1950-67.

丰田内部的不和可以追溯到20世纪90年代中期,当时丰田家族自1967年丰田英二(Eiji Toyoda)担任总裁以来首次放弃了对总裁一职的控制。丰田英二是丰田创始人的堂弟。1950年至1967年,公司也是由非丰田家族高管运营的。

By the time Akio's uncle, Tatsuro, stepped down as president in 1995, after a stroke, the company was losing market share and risked posting its first loss since 1950. It was vulnerable to a weak Japanese economy, trade friction with the U.S., and a strong Japanese currency that crimped exports.

到丰田章男的叔父丰田达郎(Tatsuro Toyoda)1995年因中风卸任总裁职位之时,丰田公司已经在失去市场份额,面临着在1950年以来第一次报出亏损的危险。当时日本经济疲软,与美国发生贸易摩擦,日圆坚挺也不利于出口,都很容易对丰田公司造成影响。

A series of non-Toyodas took the helm, beginning with Mr. Okuda in 1995 and ending with Mr. Watanabe in 2009. During their terms, the company revived financially and emerged as one of the most admired and studied companies in the world.

一系列外姓人掌权丰田公司,始于奥田硕1995年上任,终于渡边捷昭 2009年卸任。在他们的任期内,丰田公司实现了财务重振,并成为世界上最受景仰、受到最多研究的公司之一。

The gist of the Okuda-Watanabe strategy was to take Toyota's globalization efforts, launched under the previous generation of family management, to new levels. Even though the company had begun to build factories in the U.S. and other markets in the 1980s, it still was seen as largely insular and Japan-focused.

从奥田硕到渡边捷昭,他们的策略要点在于,要把前一代丰田家族管理层开创的国际化行动提升到一个新的水平。虽然丰田公司在上世纪80年代就已经开始在美国和其他市场建厂,但它仍被认为在很大程度上只是偏居日本一隅。

In 1996, Mr. Okuda and aides unveiled a new strategy dubbed the '2005 Vision.' They aimed to retool the auto maker over the coming decade, growing rapidly while relying less on exports and more on factories producing locally in target markets, from Argentina to Thailand to the U.S. Mr. Watanabe was one of the authors of the plan.

1996年,奥田硕团队公布了名为“2005愿景”(2005 Vision)的新战略。他们打算在后面的10年重新塑造丰田公司,使之快速增长,同时减少对出口的依赖,更加倚重于在阿根廷、泰国和美国等目标市场进行生产的工厂。渡边捷昭是这一计划的倡导者之一。

To realize this 10-year vision, the executives devised interim 'global master plans' to assign resources efficiently to different divisions, along with 'global profit management' plans that required sales executives around the world to attain certain profitability goals.

为实现这个10年愿景,管理团队推出了临时性的“全球大师计划”,目的是把资源有效地配置给不同的部门,另外还推出“全球利润管理”计划,要求全世界的销售经理人实现一定的盈利目标。

The 2005 Vision also pushed Toyota to implement kakushin, or revolutionary innovations, in vehicle design and manufacturing. That included efficiency drives to reduce costs, not only through conventional means, such as simplifying designs and using cheaper materials, but also by changing the way cars are engineered. For example, engineers were pushed to combine functions into fewer parts and systems. Their aim: cut the number of components in a car by half.

“2005愿景”还促使丰田公司在汽车设计和生产中实施“革新”(kakushin)。这包括提高效率、降低成本,其实现途径不仅仅是简化设计、降低材料成本等传统手段,还有改变汽车的建造方式。例如,工程师们被要求用更少的部件和系统来实现各种功能,目标是要把汽车的组件数量减半。

In 2002, the plan morphed into the '2010 Vision,' aiming for 15% global market share by the early 2010s, an ambitious jump from the 10% mark Toyota had at the time. Toyota has yet to achieve this goal. Its consolidated group market share rose to as high as about 13% in 2008, according to CSM Worldwide, a consulting firm that tracks auto makers.

2002年,“2005愿景”演进为“2010 愿景”,目标是到2010年代初期取得15%的全球市场份额。相比当时丰田公司10%的份额,这是一个很有野心的跳跃。目前丰田公司还没有实现这一目标。据跟踪汽车生产商的咨询公司CSM Worldwide称,2008年,丰田公司的集团综合市场份额达到了13%左右。

The effects of those measures were phenomenal. Starting around 2000, the company's global sales began growing by up to 600,000 vehicles a year, more than the annual overall volume achieved by Volvo.

上述措施效果明显。从2000年前后开始,该公司的全球销量以每年高达60万辆的速度增长,这个增长幅度比沃尔沃(Volvo)的全年总销量都还多。

During this 15-year non-family reign, Toyota achieved other milestones: operating profit margins zoomed to an industry-leading high of 8.6%. In 2008, Toyota displaced GM as the world's biggest auto maker by unit sales.

在外姓人掌权的这15年期间,丰田公司还取得了其他一些突破:营业利润率达到了行业领先水平8.6%。2008年,丰田取代通用汽车(GM)成为世界上销量最大的汽车生产商。

As part of his strategy, Mr. Okuda sought to diminish the family's role. According to executives close to him, Mr. Okuda said founding-family dominance was an outdated concept -- especially when the family controlled less than 2% of the stock in the publicly traded company.

奥田硕根据自己的战略,争取弱化丰田家族的作用。据接近他的经理人称,奥田硕认为创始家族占据主导地位是一种过时的概念,特别是在创始家族在这家上市公司当中持股不足2%的时候,更是如此。

At the peak of his power, Mr. Okuda publicly was frank about that belief. 'The Toyoda family will eventually become a 'shrine' to the company's foundation, to which we will pay respect once a year,' he told The Wall Street Journal in a 2000 interview.

在权力达到顶峰的时候,即使是在公开场合,奥田硕对这一观念也并不讳言。他在2000年接受《华尔街日报》采访时说,丰田家族最终将成为纪念公司创业时期的神龛,我们每年都会对着这个神龛敬上一次。

Asked then about future prospects for Mr. Toyoda, then a 43-year-old general manager, Mr. Okuda said: 'Nepotism just doesn't belong in our future.' He elaborated: 'Akio-class talents are rolling around all over Toyota, like so many potatoes.'

当时丰田章男43岁,担任的是一个总经理的职位。在那次采访中被问到丰田章男的前途时,奥田硕回答说,群带关系根本不属于我们的未来。他具体地说,像丰田章男这种水平的人才在丰田公司各个地方滚来滚去,就像是很多的土豆一样。

At the time, Mr. Toyoda seemed to have been sidelined. When he was assigned to lead Toyota's Chinese operations in 2001, China was still a backwater in Toyota's global strategy. Mr. Okuda, by then Toyota chairman, likened the job to 'mopping the floors' -- a safe place for grooming a scion with more ambition than experience, according to a separate Journal interview in 2003.

在当时,丰田章男似乎是坐着冷板凳。他于2001年被指派负责丰田的中国业务时,在公司的全球战略中,中国还是一片蛮荒之地。在《华尔街日报》2003年的另一次采访中,当时已是丰田董事长的奥田硕形容说,这份工作就像是“拖地板”,适合培育一棵野心大于经验的苗子。

But Mr. Toyoda fixed the troubled Chinese subsidiary and put it on a path for growth. He was then promoted in 2005 to the position of executive vice president, where he had broad responsibilities, including quality, product management, purchasing and global sales.

但丰田章男修复了困难重重的中国子公司,将它推上了增长轨道。2005年,他晋升为执行副总裁,拥有广泛的职责,包括质量、产品管理、采购和全球销售。

Even as he climbed the ladder, Mr. Toyoda said little in top management meetings, according to some nonfamily executives. As Toyota made progress, the non-family executives began dismissing Mr. Toyoda and treated him as a not-so-bright spoiled rich kid, say several non-family managers.

据一些外姓经理人说,即使是在丰田章男往上爬的时候,他在高层会议上也是少言寡语。几位外姓经理人说,随着丰田公司取得进步,外姓经理人们开始不重视丰田章男,把他看做是一位智商不那么高的富家子。

Executives close to Mr. Toyoda dispute the notion that he was overpowered by top management. While the company's financial reports were improving, a number of vehicle recalls signalled that its famed quality was slipping, and Mr. Toyoda began to sound the warning bell. On Dec. 2, 2005, the end of the year when Mr. Okuda's 10-year vision was coming to fruition, Mr. Toyoda gave an unpublicized, internal speech questioning the new direction.

与丰田章男关系密切的高管驳斥了认为他被高管层压制的看法。虽然丰田公司的财报有所好转,但多起车辆召回事件表明丰田的高质量声誉正在下滑,丰田章男也开始敲响警钟。2005年12月5日,在奥田硕10年愿景即将实现的那一年年末,丰田章男发表了不公开的内部讲话,对这个新的方向提出质疑。

Talking to engineers and mid-level executives, Mr. Toyoda said the rapid expansion exceeded the company's ability to assure the quality and reliability of each model. He called on the engineers, seated inside an auditorium at Toyota's global headquarters, to shift their mindset and attain the 'resolve to make a big turn from emphasizing volume to quality,' according to a summary of the speech reviewed by the Journal.

丰田章男对公司的工程师和中层管理人员说,这种迅速扩张超越了公司确保每款汽车质量和可靠性的能力。《华尔街日报》所见的讲话概要显示,在丰田全球总部礼堂内,他要求在坐的工程师们转变思想,实现从注重产量到注重质量的重大转变。

Top executives at the time say Mr. Toyoda never took such complaints directly to them.

当时的丰田公司高管说,丰田章男从未直接向他们提出这类意见。

In 2008, the question of family vs. nonfamily management came to a head as Mr. Watanabe was preparing to retire as chief executive. Mr. Okuda, then a board member, angled for a close aide, another nonfamily executive, to take the job. Shoichiro Toyoda, a former president who remained an influential adviser, weighed in for Akio, his son, according to senior Toyota executives.

2008 年渡边捷昭准备从首席执行长的位置上退休时,家族管理还是非家族管理的问题浮出了水面。当时任董事会成员的奥田硕试图让与他关系密切的一名副手接任,此人也非丰田家族成员。丰田高管说,曾任丰田总裁、当时仍担任颇有影响力的公司顾问的丰田章一郎(Shoichiro Toyoda)则支持其子丰田章男。

In January 2009, the company announced Akio Toyoda would replace Mr. Watanabe as president in June. Taking charge at 53 years old, Mr. Toyoda became Toyota's youngest chief executive since his grandfather became president in 1941 at age 47.

2009 年1月,丰田公司宣布丰田章男将于当年6月接替渡边捷昭任首席执行长一职。53岁上任的丰田章男成为继他的祖父之后最年轻的首席执行长。他的祖父于 1941年47岁时当上总裁。

The younger Mr. Toyoda declared as one of his first priorities undoing many of his predecessor's policies. He began by signaling to underlings that he didn't share Mr. Watanabe's informal goal of hitting two trillion yen or more in annual operating income. He immediately killed the 'global profit management' plan, associates say.

丰田章男宣布他的首要任务之一就是取消前任的诸多政策。他开始是向手下暗示,他并不苟同渡边捷昭定下的年度营运收入达到两万亿日圆或以上的非正式目标。他的助手说,他立即否定了“全球利润管理”计划。

The reality of Toyota's quality problems -- the main battleground inside the company today -- is a bit ambiguous.

丰田质量问题的真实情况有些暧昧不明,这正是丰田公司内部当前的主要矛盾所在。

Two separate surveys conducted by J.D. Power & Associates show the Toyota brand quality has actually improved over the past decade, measured by a decline in the rate of owner complaints. This occurred even as the number of vehicles the company recalled around the world skyrocketed in that time.

消费研究机构J.D. Power & Associates分别进行的两项调查显示,从车主投诉率下降来看,过去十年间丰田品牌质量实际上有所提升。这种情况也刚好是丰田公司在全球召回汽车的数量不断飙升之际。

The surveys also show that Toyota rivals improved faster. In 2000, Toyota's luxury brand Lexus placed first in quality rankings for used-car owners, while the Toyota brand ranked fourth. By 2009, Lexus fell from the top spot, ranking behind Buick and Jaguar, while the Toyota brand again placed fourth. In quality rankings for new-car owners, the Toyota brand in 2000 tied with BMW for fourth. In 2009, Toyota ranked sixth.

调查还显示,丰田的竞争对手提高更快。2000年,丰田的豪华车品牌雷克萨斯(Lexus)在二手车主的质量评级中排名第一,丰田品牌则排名第四。2009年,雷克萨斯的冠军位置不保,排在了别克(Buick)和捷豹(Jaguar)之后,丰田品牌再度排在第四位。在新车车主的质量评级中,丰田品牌2000年与宝马(BMW)并列第四,2009年丰田排第六。

Mr. Toyoda's supporters blame the slippage in relative quality rankings -- as well as the sharp rise in recalls -- on the company's previous non-family managers. It takes two to three years to develop a new car, so the models experiencing problems were developed before Akio Toyoda took the helm last June.

丰田章男的支持者将相关的质量排名下滑以及召回数量大幅增加归咎于公司此前非丰田家族的管理者。开发一款新车需要两到三年时间,因此出现问题的车型是在丰田章男去年6月执掌大权之前开发的。

The nonfamily executives acknowledge they made some mistakes. One says a large number of inexperienced contract engineers hired from outside agencies -- an effort to save money as they tried to boost engineering capacity -- led to at least some of the increase in quality glitches.

以前的管理者们承认他们犯了一些错误。其中一位说,质量问题增多至少有一部分原因是从外面的中介招聘大量没有经验的合同工程师,这一举措是为了在提升工程产能的同时节省成本。

But the non-family managers blame Mr. Toyoda's management style -- both external and internal -- as much as anything for letting the defects turn from a fixable problem into a full crisis.

但那些管理者也同样指责丰田章男对内对外的管理风格,认为其导致了故障从可修复的问题发展成全面的危机。

Mr. Toyoda's in-house detractors say the president has created an informal team of loyalists, making it tough for managers trying to communicate through the formal channels. One nonfamily manager says the current executive structure operates like a 'shadow management team,' doubling up information and management.

丰田公司内部对丰田章男有意见的人士说,他创立了一个非正式的效忠者团队,令管理人员很难通过正式渠道沟通。一位非丰田家族的管理人员说,当前的管理架构就像“影子管理团队”,令信息沟通和管理变得重复。

In terms of handling the American public, politicians and press, they say Mr. Toyoda was slow to address publicly the controversy. And when he did finally speak out, they say, his statements were widely criticized as vague and halting.

在应对美国公众、政治家和媒体方面,他们认为丰田章男对争议作出公开反应太过迟缓。而当他最终公开发表意见时,他的讲话被普遍批为模糊空洞。

Mr. Toyoda's supporters say, on the contrary, he's been clear and direct about the direction he wants to follow. At a press conference last month, Mr. Toyoda said the previous expansion push may have caused it to scrimp on quality, compromising its just-in-time production system, for example. 'I would like to make sure we re-embrace those basics and rebuild the foundation of Toyota and its production system,' he said.

相反,丰田章男的支持者认为,他清楚自己想要前进的方向并直截了当。在上个月的一个新闻发布会上,丰田章男说,此前的扩张举措或许导致丰田牺牲了质量,危及其高效的生产体系。丰田章男说,我想确保我们重新接受那些基本的原则,重建丰田以及其产品体系。

Norihiko Shirouzu

http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20100414/ffe121857.asp

2010年4月13日星期二

道指突破11000点 市场乐观情绪升温

Dow Breaks Through 11000

道指突破11000点 市场乐观情绪升温

Lifted by optimism about corporate profits, a recovering economy and the latest debt-relief plan for Greece, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 11000, something it hadn't achieved since the financial system began teetering nearly 19 months ago. By inching past the milestone -- rising just 8.62 points, or 0.08%, to 11005.97 -- the Dow continued what amounts to a stealth rally in a market characterized by below-average trading volume and small daily moves.

受投资者对公司盈利的乐观预期、经济复苏形势和最新的希腊债务救援方案提振,周一道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)收于11000点上方。这是近19个月以前金融系统开始倾颓以来未曾出现过的情况。道指收于11005.97点,上涨仅8.62点,涨幅为0.08%。突破11000点关口的道指延续了一种悄然展开的涨势:市场成交量低于平均水平,每日波动幅度也不是很大。

The Dow has risen on 23 of the past 30 trading days, but moved more than 100 points only once, on March 23. It has risen 68% since bottoming out in March 2009, but is up just 6% this year.

过去30个交易日中,道指实现上涨的有23个,但涨幅超过100点的只有3月23日这一天。相比2009年3月触及的底部上涨了68%,但今年以来的涨幅仅有6%。

Investors have been torn between a conviction that the recession is over and fears that unemployment, high debt levels and still-troubled housing and lending markets could prevent a normal recovery.

投资者意见分歧,有的人相信,衰退已经结束;有的人又担心,在失业率和债务水平高企、楼市和信贷市场依旧疲软的情况下,经济或许难以展开一种常见形态的复苏。

The market's ability to finally move past the landmark 11000 level suggests the optimists remain in charge.

市场能够最终突破11000点大关,说明还是乐观派处于上风。

'It does give you the feeling that people are recognizing the sustainability of the recovery. They clearly are factoring in the improved profit environment,' said Christopher Sheldon, chief investment strategist at BNY Mellon Wealth Management.

资产管理公司BNY Mellon Wealth Management首席投资策略师谢尔登(Christopher Sheldon)说,它确实让你感觉到,人们在意识到复苏的可持续性;他们显然是在交易中考虑到了盈利环境改善的因素。

Individual investors aren't driving the gains, according to analysts who track their behavior. Instead, the rise is led by hedge funds and other professionals. Purchases of U.S.-stock mutual funds have remained anemic over the past year, dwarfed by demand for bond funds and for funds that invest in developing countries.

跟踪散户投资行为的分析师说,道指上涨并不是散户推动,而是由对冲基金和其他专业投资者带动的。在过去一年,美股类共同基金的购买情况一直不旺,相比之下,债券类基金或投资于发展中国家的基金需求更好。

Since the tech-stock debacle in 2000 and 2001, small investors as a group have become skeptical of the stock market and have rarely shown a large appetite for U.S. stocks.

从2000年到2001年科技股泡沫破灭以来,小投资者在整体上已对股票市场产生怀疑,很少显示出对美股的强烈偏好。

The fuel for the recent gains has included a string of upbeat news about the economy. March sales numbers at chain stores came in strong, reinforcing hopes created by earlier news that the economy began creating jobs overall in March.

推动股市近期上涨的因素中,包括一系列有关经济形势的乐观消息。3月份连锁店销售数据强劲,在早前消息表明3月份就业岗位普遍增加的基础上,进一步增强了人们的乐观预期。

Indexes of both manufacturing and service-sector business activity have begun showing gains, suggesting that economic improvement has become broad.

反映制造业和服务业商业活动水平的各项指数都已经开始显示出增长,说明经济形势的改善已经延伸到各个方面。

And analysts are forecasting 37% overall gains when companies in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index release first-quarter profit reports, well above the 7% historic average, according to Thomson Reuters.

另外汤森路透(Thomson Reuters)数据显示,据分析师预测,标准普尔500种股票价格指数(Standard & Poor's 500-stock index)成份股公司公布一季度财报时,它们的整体利润将显示出37%的增长,远高于7%的历史平均水平。

Investors are also showing signs of being more demanding this earnings season.

迹象还表明,本财季投资者有着更高的期待。

After the regular trading day ended, Alcoa Inc. became the first component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to release first-quarter results. It met analysts' profit expectations but came up short on sales; its stock edged down 0.48% in after-hours trading.

周一常规交易结束后,美国铝业公司(Alcoa Inc.)成为首家公布一季度业绩的道指成份股公司。其利润达到了分析师的预期,但销售额低于预期。盘后交易中,该公司股价微幅下跌0.48%。

Overall trading volume has been in a slump for most of this year compared with last year, contributing to concerns that the large gains of the past 13 months may be nearing an end. Trading in New York Stock Exchange stocks has been below the 2009 average on all but three days since the start of March.

今年以来的大部分时间内,总体交易量同比均呈大幅度下降,加上其他因素,使人担心过去13个月以来股市的大幅度增长可能正在接近尾声。除去3月份头三个交易日,其他时间纽约证券交易所(New York Stock Exchange)的股票成交情况均低于2009年平均水平。

Many analysts consider below-average volume as a negative, because it suggests a lack of eagerness. If the market is going to move significantly higher, the thinking goes, it needs to see higher-volume buying sooner or later.

许多分析师认为,交易量低于平均水平不是件好事,因为这显示投资者缺乏买进的迫切愿望。其思路是,如果市场要大幅走高,买盘数量迟早都得升高。

On Monday, 4.75 billion NYSE stocks changed hands overall, below the 2009 average of 5.54 billion.

周一在纽约证交所,总共有47.5亿股股票易手,低于55.4亿股的2009年平均水平。

Some worry that the economy will fail to live up to investors' expectations or that huge government-borrowing needs will push interest rates higher, stifling the market recovery.

一些人担心,经济状况可能达不到投资者的预期,他们还担心美国政府巨大的借款需求将推高利率,从而妨碍市场的复苏。

Few, however, consider weak volume alone a reason to sell. An old Wall Street saying holds that investors shouldn't short a dull market, meaning they shouldn't bet against stocks when the market is quiet.

但没有什么人认为仅仅因为股市成交量不高就应该选择卖出。华尔街有句老话说,投资者在市场反应迟缓时不应选择卖空,这话的意思是,当市场波澜不惊时,投资者不应把宝押在股市将下跌上。

Plenty of investors share the view that the market could be peaking, at least in the short term. They worry that investors are showing signs of increasing complacency, which can be a sign that investors have become overly optimistic and that the market has come too far, too fast.

许多投资者都认为,股市可能正在见顶,至少短期内是如此。他们担心,投资者正在显示出惬意感日益增大的迹象,这可被视为投资者已变得过分乐观,以及市场已涨得太高、太快了。

Both the Dow and the S&P 500 are at landmark levels. The S&P 500, which finished at 1196.48 on Monday, seems to be stuck just below 1200.

道琼斯指数和标准普尔500指数都达到了里程碑式的水平。标普500指数周一收于1196.48点,似乎已稳定在距1200点仅一步之遥的地方。

Both are trading in the same area they traded at the time that Lehman Brothers was failing. The Dow was at 11421.99 on the trading day before Lehman filed for bankruptcy protection, and fell below 11000 on the day of the filing. It moved back and forth through 11000 after that, resuming its decline on Sept. 29, 2008, after Congress initially rejected efforts to bail out financial companies.

道琼斯指数和标准普尔500指数目前的波动区间目前都已恢复到雷曼兄弟公司(Lehman Brothers)垮台时的水平。在雷曼兄弟申请破产保护的前一个交易日,道琼斯指数为11421.99点,而在该公司申请破产保护当天,道琼斯指数跌破了11000点。此后该指数曾一度收复了11000点,但在美国国会最初拒绝了救助金融企业之后,道琼斯指数在2008年9月29日又转而下跌。

Tuesday's market move is important because, unlike the 10000 level, 11000 hasn't often been crossed in the past, says Jeffrey Kleintop, chief market strategist at brokerage firm LPL Financial. In all, the Dow has now risen through 11000 on 35 occasions.

经纪公司LPL Financial的首席市场策略师克兰托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)认为,周二的市场动向将具有重要意义,因为与10000点不同,11000点关口以往并不经常被突破。道琼斯指数只升穿过11000点35次。

'We believe the stock market is due for another 5% to 10% pullback as the earnings season gets under way,' Mr. Kleintop says. 'Following the pullback to near 10000 once again, we expect a rally to the highs with the Dow back over 11000 by mid-year.'

克兰托普说,我们认为,随着收益报告发布季节的展开,美国股市将再回调5%至10%。他说,当道琼斯指数回落到又接近10000点时,我们预计它将会回升,在年中前重新收复11000点。

Supporting the notion that a pullback may be in the cards: Investor polls show unusually high levels of optimism, and relatively low use of options to protect against market declines, a potential sign of investor overconfidence.

以下几个因素可以支持股市即将发生回调的观点:调查显示,投资者的乐观情绪高得不同寻常,而通过使用期权来对冲市场下跌风险的做法却相对不普遍,这有可能显示投资者的信心过于强烈了。

Another indicator of complacency: The Vix, a measure of market fear based on options trading and tracked by the Chicago Board Options Exchange, fell to 15.58 Monday, its lowest level since July 2007, before the market turmoil began.

另一个显示投资者惬意感的指标是Vix,芝加哥期权交易所编制的这一指数基于期权交易情况来衡量市场的恐慌程度。该指数周一降至15.58点的2007年7月以来最低水平,当时正是市场动荡期开始的前夜。

But while the National Bureau of Economic Research -- the recognized arbiter of the start and end dates for recessions -- has declined so far to declare the recession officially ended, many investors remain focused on signs of economic recovery.

不过,虽然美国经济衰退起止时间权威确定机构美国国家经济研究局(National Bureau of Economic Research)迄今为止一直拒绝宣布经济衰退已经正式结束,但许多投资者依然把关注点放在了经济复苏的迹象上。

Overall, the indicators that many analysts look for as a sign of imminent trouble aren't flashing red. All the major indexes, and many minor ones, are making new highs at the same time.

总的来看,那些许多投资者期待从中发现麻烦迫在眉睫迹象的指标并未亮起红灯。所有主要指数,以及许多不那么重要的指数,都在同一时间创出新高。

The number of advancing stocks far exceeds declining ones, and the number hitting new highs is much larger than the number hitting new lows. All of which suggests widespread market support.

上涨股数量远多于下跌股数量,股价升至新高的股票远多于股价跌至新低的股票。所有这些都显示,市场支撑力是广泛的。

Perhaps most important, investors have been reassured by Federal Reserve promises to keep interest rates low, which has been an essential market underpinning.

或许最重要的是,美联储(Federal Reserve)承诺要把利率保持在低位一直对投资者起着安抚作用,这一承诺一直是重要的市场支撑因素。

E.S. Browning

http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20100413/stk102100.asp

2010年4月6日星期二

美国准备以隐瞒缺陷为由向丰田汽车处以1,640万美元罚款

美国运输部长Ray LaHood周一称,美国政府寻求向丰田汽车公司(Toyota Motor Co., TM, 7203.TO)处以1,640万美元的民事罚款,因后者涉嫌向安全监管机构隐瞒油门踏板问题。若该计划落实,这将是美国历史上向一家汽车生产商征收的最大一笔民事罚金。

对丰田汽车公司处以上述罚金的理由是,该公司向监管机构隐瞒油门踏板缺陷达至少4个月之久。

官员们表示,汽车生产商被要求在5个工作日内向监管机构通报汽车可能存在的缺陷。

丰田汽车有两周的时间就政府提出的罚金作出反应。记者未能立即联系到该公司管理人士就此发表评论。

本文由道琼斯通讯社提供,获取更丰富更及时的道琼斯财经资讯,请访问WWW.DJCNEWS.COM。

http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20100406/BUS064335.asp